Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable performance in 1H25 with revenue and profit growth in line with expectations, driven by steady operator business and rapid growth in ancillary services [1][2] Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue reached 49.601 billion RMB, up 2.8% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.0% to 5.757 billion RMB; EBITDA rose by 3.6% to 34.227 billion RMB [1] - In 2Q25, revenue was 24.830 billion RMB, up 2.3% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7.3% to 2.733 billion RMB; EBITDA grew by 2.9% to 16.932 billion RMB [1] Business Segments - Operator business revenue in 1H25 was 42.461 billion RMB, up 0.8% year-on-year, with tower revenue down 0.4% and indoor distribution revenue up 12.0%; the number of operator tenants increased by 2.5% to 3.579 million [1] - Ancillary business revenue in 1H25 was 6.935 billion RMB, up 15.5% year-on-year, with smart connection and energy revenues increasing by 18.7% and 9.2% respectively; energy business revenue grew by 17.9% after adjusting for accounting methods [1] Cost Control and Profitability - EBITDA margin improved to 69.0%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, due to effective cost control measures [1] - Maintenance and operational support costs decreased by 6.2% and 12.6% respectively, while labor costs rose by 9% due to the recruitment of technology talent [1] Cash Flow and Dividends - Operating cash flow (OCF) for 1H25 was 28.68 billion RMB, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement of 72.37% but down 12.6% year-on-year [2] - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.1325 RMB per share, up 21.6% year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 40.5% [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with current stock price corresponding to 3.5x and 3.3x EV/EBITDA for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2] - The target price is set at 14.00 HKD, implying a potential upside of 22.5% from the current stock price [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on improving free cash flow and expected dividend increases [5][8]. Core Views - The company is a state-owned water utility in Tianjin, with over 20 years of industry experience, primarily engaged in wastewater treatment, recycled water supply, and tap water supply. The wastewater treatment segment is expected to contribute nearly 80% of revenue and gross profit in 2024 [7][16]. - The company has shown stable profitability with a net profit margin around 17% and a return on equity (ROE) between 8% and 10% from 2019 to 2024. The gross margin has been steadily increasing [19][21]. - Free cash flow turned positive in 2024, with expectations for continued improvement due to reduced capital expenditures and enhanced collection of receivables [10][21]. - The company has a significant potential for dividend increases, with a current dividend payout ratio around 30%, which is lower than industry peers [10][11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of August 1, 2025, the closing price is 5.92 CNY, with a total market capitalization of approximately 9,296.88 million CNY [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 48.64 billion CNY, 49.04 billion CNY, and 50.35 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.8%, 0.8%, and 2.7% respectively. Net profit estimates are 9.58 billion CNY, 9.95 billion CNY, and 10.27 billion CNY, with growth rates of 18.65%, 3.89%, and 3.19% respectively [6][40]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 10, 9, and 9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, which is significantly lower than the industry average P/E of 17 [8][40]. Investment Logic - The company has a strong market position in wastewater treatment, with a stable revenue stream and improving margins. The wastewater treatment price has increased from 1.7 CNY/ton to 1.92 CNY/ton from 2021 to 2024, reflecting a consistent upward trend [10][33]. - The company is expected to benefit from the cessation of goodwill impairment losses starting in 2025, which could positively impact net profit by approximately 1.5 billion CNY [11][38]. Key Assumptions - The report assumes new wastewater treatment capacity additions of 9, 5.5, and 6 thousand tons per day for 2025-2027, with a consistent treatment price of 1.92 CNY/ton [9][41].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in dividend rates and the implications for investment strategies, emphasizing that dividend yield should not be the sole basis for investment decisions due to the potential unsustainability of high dividend payouts [3][4][11]. Group 1: Dividend Rate Analysis - There has been a notable increase in dividend rates, with the rolling dividend rates for indices such as the CSI Dividend, CSI Low Volatility Dividend, and CSI Bank Index rising significantly from historical averages of 33.41%, 32.51%, and 26.39% to 48.32%, 49.63%, and 43.08% respectively [11]. - The calculation of dividend rate is defined as the ratio of dividends to net profit, and a method to derive it from price-to-earnings (P/E) and dividend yield is provided [7][12]. Group 2: Sustainability of High Dividend Yields - Relying on increased dividend rates to maintain high dividend yields is questioned, as excessive dividend payouts can hinder a company's reinvestment capabilities and affect long-term profitability [13][14]. - The current high dividend yield levels are attributed to short-term increases in dividend rates, making historical comparisons less relevant [14][15]. Group 3: Importance of Earnings Sustainability - The focus should shift back to the sustainability of earnings as the foundation for dividends, especially since many companies in dividend strategies are in mature stages with low or stagnant growth [17]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio becomes a critical reference point for evaluating dividend strategies, with current P/E ratios for CSI Dividend and Low Volatility Dividend being at high percentiles compared to historical data [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue decline of 7.07% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with net profit affected by asset impairment losses, leading to a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio to 91.4% for the year. The company aims for a positive outlook in 2025, targeting total revenue of 119 billion yuan and a profit of 12.6 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 24.4% respectively, with an adjusted profit growth expectation of 16% after excluding impairment losses and asset sales [1][2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company’s revenue was 26.74 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 2.42 billion yuan primarily due to a one-time asset impairment loss of nearly 4 billion yuan. The cash collection for Q4 was 29.244 billion yuan, showing better performance than revenue, with a net operating cash flow of 7.870 billion yuan, up 19.6% year-on-year [2][4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, while net profit decreased by 17.71% to 4.87 billion yuan. The adjusted net profit, however, increased by 24.19% to 4.63 billion yuan, indicating better-than-expected performance [5][6]. Product Category Performance - The liquid milk segment saw a revenue decline of 12.32% in 2024, with contributions from volume, price, and structure being -7.1%, -3.8%, and -1.1% respectively. In contrast, the milk powder and dairy products segment grew by 7.53%, driven by an 8.2% increase in volume [3]. - The cold drink segment reported a revenue increase of 11.7%, despite a significant volume decline of 18.3%, indicating a price increase [3]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s gross margin improved to 33.9% in 2024, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a decrease in raw milk costs, with material costs per ton down by 8.27%. The gross margin for Q4 was 31.0%, down 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.3%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, impacted by a one-time goodwill impairment charge of 3 billion yuan related to Aoyou [4]. Industry Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to see an improvement in supply and demand dynamics, with upstream supply-side adjustments and enhanced policy expectations on the demand side. The company is positioned to benefit from these trends, aiming for above-expectation growth following the cleanup of its financial statements [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company aims to achieve a total revenue of 119 billion yuan and a total profit of 12.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 24.4% respectively, with an expected profit growth of 16% after excluding one-time asset impairment losses [6][7] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.71% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit increased by 24.19% [6][7] - The dairy product industry is expected to improve due to accelerated supply-side adjustments and enhanced demand-side policies, indicating a positive trend in supply and demand [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 8.24% to 115.78 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% [5][7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 33.9%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a decrease in raw milk costs [5][6] - The company’s cash dividend for 2024 was 7.726 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 91.4%, significantly higher than previous years [5][6] Segment Performance - In 2024, liquid milk revenue decreased by 12.32% to 75 billion yuan, while infant formula and dairy products saw a revenue increase of 7.53% to 29.675 billion yuan [5][6] - The cold drink segment reported a revenue increase of 11.7% to 10.69 billion yuan, despite a decline in sales volume [5][6] Future Outlook - The company forecasts an EPS of 1.79 yuan for 2025, with a target valuation of 20 times earnings, leading to a market capitalization estimate of 227.8 billion yuan [6][7] - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned for potential growth following the cleanup of its balance sheet from one-time asset impairments [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a stable revenue performance in a challenging market environment, with 2024 revenue at 6.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, and a net profit of 953 million yuan, down 33.5% year-on-year [6]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 9.43 billion yuan for 2024, which represents 99% of its net profit, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [6]. - Despite a decrease in net profit due to increased sales expenses and reduced investment income, the company continues to invest in brand and channel development, which is expected to strengthen its market position over time [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 6.27 billion yuan in 2024 to 8.61 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.3% [5]. - The net profit is expected to recover from 953 million yuan in 2024 to 1.55 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 16, 13, and 12 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6]. - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 41.6% to 41.7% from 2025 to 2027, indicating a consistent profitability outlook [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 1,741.44 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 862.28 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.66% and 15.38% respectively, slightly exceeding previous operational announcements [1]. - The revenue growth target for 2025 is set at 9%, which is considered realistic given the current market pressures [3]. - The company has a strong brand moat and robust channel risk resistance, with a high certainty of achieving the 9% revenue growth target for 2025 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's main liquor business generated revenue of 1,706.12 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 92.01%, showing a year-on-year increase in volume of 13.73% and price increase of 1.9% [1][5]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 647 billion yuan for 2024, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 75% [3]. - The company’s revenue from Moutai liquor reached 1,459 billion yuan in 2024, with a volume increase of 10.22% and price increase of 4.59% [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1,908.81 billion yuan, 2,070.44 billion yuan, and 2,239.13 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 9.6%, 8.5%, and 8.1% [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 948 billion yuan, 1,030 billion yuan, and 1,116 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 9.9%, 8.7%, and 8.4% respectively [7][8].