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金信期货日刊-20251111
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 01:24
Report Overview - Report Name: Jinxin Futures Daily - Date: November 11, 2025 - Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term upward trend of soda ash futures is driven by supply disruptions, but the long - term pattern of high inventory and new capacity release in the soda ash industry remains unchanged. For operation, pay attention to device restart and new capacity commissioning progress, and avoid blind chasing of highs [3][4][5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to continue high - level oscillatory upward movement. Gold shows signs of rising again and low - buying for long positions can be considered. Iron ore may enter a technical short - position trend and short on rebounds is recommended. Glass is expected to be oscillatory and bearish. Eggs present a long - position opportunity due to seasonal supply tightness. Pulp futures show an oscillatory rebound trend [8][13][15][19][22][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - On the afternoon of November 10, the soda ash futures 2601 contract closed at 1,226 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 1.49% from the previous trading day, with the highest intraday reaching 1,230 yuan/ton and the trading volume increasing to over 1.54 million lots [3]. - The core driving force for the rise comes from supply - side disruptions, including production cuts by some enterprises and postponed new capacity commissioning. Low heavy - alkali inventory and the strengthening of glass futures also support the price. However, the long - term situation of high inventory and new capacity release in the soda ash industry remains, and downstream glass demand is still dragged by the real - estate sector [3][4]. - Institutions suggest paying attention to device restart and new capacity commissioning progress, not blindly chasing highs, and short - term long - position opportunities can be grasped near the 1,200 yuan/ton mark [5]. Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index slowly oscillated upward and closed with a small positive line. Core CPI growth expanded and the price level stabilized and rebounded. The U.S. Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillatory upward movement [8]. Gold - After a period of adjustment, gold shows signs of rising again, and low - buying for long positions can be considered [13]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation has further intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real - estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it has broken through an important support level and may enter a technical short - position trend, so short on rebounds is recommended [15][16]. Glass - The daily melting volume has little change, and the inventory has decreased this week. The subsequent main drivers lie in policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance policies. Technically, it broke through the support level today and is expected to be oscillatory and bearish [19]. Eggs - As the temperature drops, laying hens in the main egg - producing areas in the north will enter the winter egg - laying off - season, and those in the south will gradually enter the early stage of the winter egg - laying off - season. The monthly total supply of commercial poultry eggs will stop increasing and start to decline, and the seasonal supply shortage will gradually become prominent. Long - position opportunities can be grasped [22]. Pulp - In October, the pulp import volume decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory showed a downward trend, but the market supply is still abundant. The sporadic publication bidding of cultural paper has boosted market confidence, but the social demand is weak, and the paper mill's gross profit continues to decline. The pulp futures have shown an oscillatory rebound trend recently [26].
技术解盘20250819
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-19 01:19
IF 震荡走高 IC加权指数本周继续走强,一举突破去年高点压力。量能方面,在价格创新高的过程中,成交量和持仓量均稳步放大。指标方面,均线系统处于多头排列, MACD指标快慢线在零轴上方跟随价格保持偏强运行。综合来看,IC加权日线架构技术形态继续走强,并创阶段性新高,建议偏多思路对待。 十债承压走弱 十债加权指数震荡走弱,并跌破4月份以来的运行区间。量能方面,在周一低开低走过程中,成交量明显放大,持仓量小幅增长。指标方面,均线系统走势 逐步转弱,MACD指标快慢线在零轴下方偏弱运行。综合来看,十债加权指数近期承压走弱,并跌破前期重要支撑位,建议偏空思路对待,下方关注 107.050点一线的支撑表现。 (文章来源:期货日报) IF加权指数近期沿5日均线震荡走强,不断创年内新高。量能方面,近一周价格上涨过程中成交量小幅放大,持仓量有所增长。指标方面,均线系统处于发 散的多头排列,MACD指标快慢线经历调整后再度交出金叉。综合来看,IF加权日线架构处于温和上涨趋势,建议偏多思路对待,上方关注去年10月初高点 4544.4点一线的压力表现。 IC 突破压力 ...