Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "AI bubble" as a significant topic among global investors, particularly in the context of the 2026 outlook from various investment banks, highlighting the volatility in capital markets and concerns over the sustainability of AI capital expenditure cycles and profitability realization [1]. Group 1: Technology - The article emphasizes the complex system of innovation and technology evolution, proposing a "technology-economy-power" paradigm that integrates technological innovation with economic and social institutional evolution [2]. - It notes that historically, core countries have been the main providers of innovation, while peripheral countries can catch up through institutional innovation and learning effects [2]. Group 2: Economic Cycles and Bubbles - The article outlines that technological innovation and total factor productivity are the primary explanations for the increase in per capita GDP, which is also the main path for a country to enhance its global economic power [2]. - It references historical examples of industrial revolutions, indicating that to transition from a peripheral to a core country, a new wave of technological revolution is often necessary [2]. Group 3: Recommended Literature - The article lists 20 classic books categorized into three units: technology, economy (cycles and bubbles), and power, with a focus on the essence of technology, the economic long cycles shaped by technological innovation, and how technology influences the world system [3][4].

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞 写在前面的话 2025 年底，" AI 泡沫"成为全球投资者热议的话题，也是国内外投行 2026 年展望的一个关键词（包括我们海外年度展望《刚 性"泡沫"》）。 从 2022 年底 ChatGPT 诞生以来， AI 始终都是资本市场的一大主线，以英伟达为代表的美国头部芯片制造商的股价、估值与市 值屡创新高。在此背景下，叠加部分美国 AI 厂商出现融资缺口和美联储降息预期的扰动等，资本市场的波动性有所抬升，投资 者开始担忧 AI 资本开支周期的可持续性，以及 AI 应用落地和盈利兑现的前景。 关于 AI ，过去几年主要是自下而上分析技术和产业趋势，可一旦要解构" AI 泡沫"，自上而下的宏观视角或不可或缺。 创新与技术的演化是一个复杂系统。宏观视域下的"技术 - 经济"范式将技术创新与经济、社会制度的演变视为一个相互作用、协 同演化的整体系统。如果将其与世界体系的"中心 - 外围"秩序的演进结合起来，就可以将"技术 - 经济"范式拓展为"技术 - 经济 - 权力"范式。长周期而言，技术创新和全要素生产率是一国人均 GDP 提升的最主要解释、进而也是一国在全球 ...