技術背離

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中芯(981)再創歷史新高;牛證兩日狂漲24%
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-24 23:41
港股半導體股盤初拉升,中芯國際漲近4%,股價再創歷史新高,最高見75.6元。五日振幅高達15.2%,顯示市場情緒激烈交戰。當前股價66.56元已突破10日 線,並大幅超越30日線59.78元及60日線54.04元,形成強勢多頭排列。 值得警惕的是,相對強弱指數(RSI)已達79超買水準,技術指標總結信號更出現「強力賣出」,與多頭走勢形成強烈背離。雖然隨機震盪指標顯示超買賣 出信號,但MACD與牛熊力量指標仍維持買入態勢,這種技術面矛盾預示股價可能面臨劇烈震盪。 值得關注的是,回顧9月17日專欄【中銀做客】Niki:如果有一直關注我們節目的投資者都有留意到,我們一直都有講到981股份。一路都有跟大 家講晶片股份,消息面有收購合併。中芯A股方面和華虹都有停牌。最近新聞講中芯中芯國際正在測試由上海初創公司宇量昇製造的深紫外光刻 機。目前有國產自己的光刻機的測試,這個消息令投資者比較興奮。今日股價飆升,收市升幅7.12%,股價67.7元的位置。晶片這個板塊,一直 都有提醒大家要留意。今日有資金流入。雖然有少量資金流入淡倉,但投資者都比較相信這個板塊,繼續部署好倉。比如中芯國際的認購證 (20316),行使價73.85 ...
保險股關鍵轉折:中國人壽22.5元攻防全攻略
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-01 19:07
Core Viewpoint - China Life Insurance's stock price has shown significant volatility, currently at 22.65 HKD, down 2.37%, with various technical indicators suggesting potential upward and downward movements in the near term [2]. Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently above the 10-day moving average of 21.93 HKD, indicating a bullish formation, but the RSI at 78 suggests it is severely overbought, creating a technical divergence with sell signals from the Williams indicator [2]. - The MACD maintains a buy signal, but the shortening of the red momentum bars indicates a potential weakening of upward momentum [2]. - The Bollinger Bands are expanding, with the stock price closely following the upper band, reflecting increased short-term volatility risk, evidenced by a 10.4% 5-day amplitude [2]. - A critical support level is identified at 20.9 HKD, which combines the 30-day moving average and a psychological barrier; a breach could lead to a drop to the 18.8 HKD yearly line [2]. - The upper resistance level is at 24 HKD, and a breakthrough could challenge the previous high of 26.3 HKD [2]. - The Ichimoku Cloud shows a bullish arrangement, but the distance from the cloud indicates accumulating technical correction pressure [2]. - Divergence in momentum oscillators and sell signals from the VR ratio indicator suggest short-term adjustment risks [2]. Derivative Products Strategy - The Morley call option 28512 stands out with a leverage of 6.7 times and the lowest premium, with an exercise price set 7% below the current stock price of 20.93 HKD [5]. - The Morgan Stanley call option 29456 offers similar terms with a leverage of 6.5 times and a lower premium as an alternative [5]. - On the bearish side, the Bank of China put option 18645 is preferred for hedging downside risk, featuring a leverage of 5.1 times and the lowest premium [5]. - The Xinda put option 18677 has an exercise price of 18.28 HKD, with a leverage of 3.4 times and is 19.11% out of the money [5].