Core Insights - The report highlights a growing investor interest in "heavy asset" stocks, such as utilities, basic resources, and energy stocks, driven by concerns over AI disruption and high valuations in growth sectors [9] - The market is currently betting on two major themes: "AI growth" and "real asset inflation hedging," leading to a rare co-movement between growth and value/dividend sectors [9] - Japan's Prime Minister expressed concerns over further interest rate hikes, which is expected to maintain a relatively loose monetary environment, benefiting the Japanese stock market, particularly in export, finance, and military sectors [9] Market Overview - The report notes that the US stock market saw gains influenced by AI-related news and interest rate expectations, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 370 points or 0.76% [11] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,590.32, down 491.59 points or 1.82%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 47.14 points or 1.01% [15] - The report indicates that the A-share market opened positively after the Lunar New Year holiday, with significant gains in oil and gas stocks, and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,117 points, up 35 points or 0.9% [13] Company Analysis - The report discusses the performance of various companies, noting that a domestic GPU demand surge is expected to drive orders and valuations higher for companies involved in AI computing power [21] - China Resources Beer reported a 2.2% year-on-year increase in beer sales, with premium products seeing over a 10% rise, indicating the effectiveness of the company's high-end strategy [21] - The report highlights that Deere & Company reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by strong sales in small agricultural and construction machinery, reflecting the company's resilience amid cost pressures [23] Economic Data - The report provides key economic data, including Hong Kong's GDP growth rate of 3.8% year-on-year for Q4 and a consumer price index increase of 1.2% year-on-year for January [20] - It also notes that the Eurozone's consumer price index rose by 1.7% year-on-year in January, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.5% [20]

港股點評 2026年2月26日9:30 a.m 恒指升 175 點，滬指升 29 點，標普 500 升 56 點 港股造好。恒指高開 154 點後升幅擴大，午後曾升 279 點高見 26,870 點，全日 升 175 點或 0.7%，收 26,765 點；國指升 26 點或 0.3%，收 9,034 點；恒生科指 跌 10 點或 0.2%，收 5,260 點。大市全日成交總額 2,367.65 億元。 人民銀行 25 日在公開市場開展 4,095 億元人民幣七天期逆回購操作，操作利率 持平於 1.4%。有 4,000 億元逆回購到期，單日淨投放 95 億元。人民幣兌美元中 間價報 6.9321，創 2023 年 5 月 11 日以來新高。A 股三大指數高開高走，滬深 成交額均較上日有所增加。滬綜指全日升 29 點或 0.7%，報 4,147 點，成交 1.09 萬億元。深成指全日升 184 點或 1.3%，報 14,475 點，成交 1.38 萬億元。創板指 數全日升 46 點或 1.4%，報 3,354 點，成交 6,222 億元。 受英偉達(NVDA.US) 、微軟(MSFT.US) 及甲骨文(ORCL. ...

人民銀行 24 日在公開市場開展 5,260 億元人民幣七天期逆回購操作，操作利率 持平於 1.4%。有 1.45 萬億元逆回購到期，單日淨回籠 9,264 億元。人民幣兌美 元中間價報 6.9414，按日下調 16 點。春節長假後首日復市。A 股三大指數紅盤 高開高走，午後升幅略為收窄。滬綜指全日升 35 點或 0.9%，報 4,117 點，成交 9,386 億元。深成指全日升 191 點或 1.4%，報 14,291 點，成交 1.26 萬億元。創 板指數全日升 32 點或 1%，報 3,308 點，成交 5,933.5 億元。 港股點評 2026年2月25日9:30 a.m 投資者持續憂慮人工智能對多個行業構成衝擊，加上美國總統特朗普上調全球 關稅，美股周一急跌。道指全日最多跌 894 點，收市下跌 821 點或 1.7%，報 48,804 點。標普 500 指數跌 71 點或 1%，收報 6,837 點。納指跌 258 點或 1.1%， 報 22,627 點。 恒指跌 491 點，滬指升 35 點，標普 500 升 52 點 受 AMD(AMD.US)及軟件股急升帶動，美股繼周一在關稅打擊大跌後，三大 ...

Market Overview - The report highlights a resilient U.S. job market, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000 in January, significantly exceeding expectations of 70,000, and an unemployment rate of 4.3% compared to the expected 4.4% [12] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.2 basis points to 4.207%, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [12][10] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,266, up 83 points or 0.31%, continuing its upward trend with a total market turnover of HK$217.2 billion [13][18] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a cautious approach towards interest-sensitive assets like long-duration growth stocks and long-term bonds due to the strong job market and delayed interest rate cuts [9][10] - It emphasizes a strategy of "risk assets outperforming safe-haven assets" in the medium term, particularly focusing on sectors such as AI, healthcare, and defense [10] - A phased investment approach is recommended, utilizing dollar-cost averaging to navigate the current market volatility [10] Company Highlights - Kingsoft Cloud (3896) reported a revenue of RMB 2.478 billion for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.4%, marking its first positive adjusted net profit of approximately RMB 28.73 million, indicating improved operational quality [22] - Zijin Mining (2899) achieved a revenue of approximately RMB 254.2 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 37.864 billion, reflecting over 55% year-on-year growth driven by rising prices and increased production of gold and copper [22] - Cloudflare, Inc. (NET) forecasts revenue of approximately $2.79 to $2.8 billion for 2026, driven by strong demand in AI, cloud security, and edge computing, with high visibility in subscription revenue [24] Economic Data - The report includes key economic data releases, such as the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7, 2026, at 224,000 and continuing claims at 1.85 million for the week ending January 31, 2026 [21] - Japan's Producer Price Index for January is reported at a year-on-year rate of 2.3% and a month-on-month rate of 0.2% [21]

港股點評 2026年2月13日9:30 a.m 投資者再度拋售科技股，美股周四走勢急轉直下。道指將早段最多 325 點漲幅 全數蒸發後，全日收跌 669 點或 1.3%，報 49,451 點。納指更重挫 469 點或 2%， 收報 22,597 點；標普 500 指數低收 108 點或 1.6%，報 6,832 點。 繼較早時發表 2025 年 12 月份對外商品貿易的貨值統計數字後，政府統計處今 日發表該月份對外商品貿易貨量及價格統計數字。2025 年 12 月與 2024 年 12 月 比較，香港的商品整體出口貨量及進口貨量分別上升 21.6%及 26.5%。2025 年 12 月與 2024 年 12 月比較，商品整體出口價格及進口價格分別上升 3.7%及 3.4%。 OpenAI 向眾議院中國問題特別委員會發出備忘錄，警告 DeepSeek 正在使用不 公平兼且複雜的方法，從 OpenAI 的 AI 模型中提取結果，以訓練 DeepSeek 下一 代 R1 聊天機械人產品。OpenAI 在備忘錄中表示，雖然公司試圖打擊違反服務 條款的用戶，但相關提取的活動仍然存在，兼且變得更加複雜。OpenAI 拒絕 ...

港股點評 2026年2月13日9:30 a.m 恒指跌 233 點，滬指升 2 點，標普 500 跌 108 點 港股連升三個交易日後， 12 日回落，恒指低開 55 點後，曾挫 333 點一度低見 26,932 點，其後跌幅收窄，二萬七關失而復得，全日收報 27,032 點，跌 233 點 或 0.9%；國指跌 93 點或 1%，收報 9,175 點；恒生科指跌 91 點或 1.7%，收報 5,408 點。大市全日成交總額 2,387.05 億元。 人民幣兌美元中間價按日下調 19 點，報 6.9457 兌一美元。人民銀行 12 日在公 開市場開展 1,665 億元人民幣七天期逆回購操作，操作利率持平於 1.4%；開展 4,000 億元 14 天期逆回購操作。有 1,185 億元逆回購到期，單日淨投放 4,480 億 元。A 股三大指數表現向好，滬指反覆靠穩，創板反彈超過 1%。滬綜指全日升 2 點或 0.05%，報 4,134 點，成交 8,980 億元。深成指全日升 122 點或 0.9%，報 14,283 點，成交 1.24 萬億元。創板指數全日升 43 點或 1.3%，報 3,328 點，成交 6, ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing volatility in the US stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a high of approximately 50,219 points before fluctuating [9] - There is a growing concern regarding "de-dollarization," as Chinese regulatory authorities are guiding financial institutions to limit their holdings of US Treasury bonds, leading to a surge in gold prices [9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield peaked at 4.6%, reflecting market uncertainty regarding inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [9] - Asset allocation strategies are suggested to focus on gold due to its appeal as a hedge against de-dollarization and ongoing demand for safe-haven assets [9] - In the bond market, a strategy of shortening duration and focusing on high-quality short to medium-term bonds is recommended if the 10-year Treasury yield remains between 4.5% and 4.7% [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,027 points, gaining 467 points (1.8%), indicating a recovery above the 27,000 mark [12] - The report notes that Chinese holdings of US Treasury bonds have dropped to an 11-year low, raising concerns about potential increases in US Treasury yields [12] - The People's Bank of China is expected to increase liquidity injections in the interbank market ahead of the Spring Festival, addressing a liquidity gap exceeding 3 trillion yuan [12] - Kuaishou faced a fine of nearly 120 million yuan due to issues related to inappropriate content, but analysts believe the impact on the company's operations will be manageable [12] - Alibaba's new AI model Qwen3.5 is expected to be open-sourced during the Spring Festival, indicating advancements in the company's AI capabilities [12] Company-Specific Analysis - China People's Insurance Group reported a 6.8% increase in insurance service revenue and a significant 28.9% rise in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting improved operational quality [21] - FIT HON TENG experienced approximately 12% year-on-year growth in revenue and operating income in the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from high-growth sectors such as AI servers and cloud networking [21] - Zhaoyi Innovation announced a positive earnings forecast for 2025, projecting revenue of approximately 9.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 25%, driven by strong demand in memory and MCU sectors [21]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a technical rebound, with SMIC (00981.HK) showing a slight increase in stock price after a period of adjustment, although it still reflects a decline year-to-date, indicating a complex high-level adjustment pattern in the market [1]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels for SMIC are identified at 64.9 HKD and 59.5 HKD, with the former being a critical battleground for buyers and sellers. If this support is breached, the next psychological support level is expected to be 59.5 HKD, which is seen as a "touchstone" for assessing the depth of the current adjustment [2]. - Resistance levels are set at 73.3 HKD and 77.3 HKD, with the former being a significant technical platform and the latter combining the 60-day moving average and previous high points, making a successful breakout crucial for reversing the current adjustment trend [2]. Market Dynamics - The overall sentiment in the semiconductor sector has improved, with signs of bottom-fishing capital entering the market. SMIC reported growth in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters, maintaining a solid fundamental position. The company also noted a high capacity utilization rate and an increase in average selling prices due to product mix optimization [5]. Derivative Products and Strategies - A new bull certificate (65935) has been introduced to meet the rising demand for leveraged tools, featuring a buyback price set at 71.3 HKD, providing a safety margin of about 3 HKD from the current stock price, with a potential leverage of approximately 15 times [4]. - For bullish strategies, investors can consider products like HSBC Bull Certificate (60684) and UBS Bull Certificate (60514), which have buyback prices close to the critical support level of 59.5 HKD, offering substantial safety buffers [9]. - For bearish strategies, UBS Put Certificate (15954) and Bank of China Put Certificate (21281) are recommended, with exercise prices slightly below the first support level, making them effective tools for hedging risks or expressing a bearish outlook [16].

Core Insights - The report highlights the mixed performance of the US stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing significant gains while the Nasdaq Composite faced declines due to concerns over new AI tools impacting software businesses [8][10] - Gold prices have rebounded, surpassing the $5,000 per ounce mark, driven by rising inflation expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, positioning gold as a key asset for risk-averse investors [8][10] - The report indicates a strong demand for AI and cloud computing, with companies like Lumentum Holdings and Super Micro Computer showing impressive revenue growth, reflecting the ongoing investment in AI infrastructure [24][25] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,847.32, up by 12.55 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.84% [14] - The report notes that the Chinese technology sector is under pressure, with the Hang Seng Tech Index experiencing a 20% decline from its previous high in October, entering a technical bear market [12] - The report mentions that the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.263%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [8] Economic Data - The US non-manufacturing index for January was reported at 53.8, slightly above expectations, while the ADP private sector employment report showed an increase of 22,000 jobs, below the anticipated 45,000 [10][21] - The report highlights that the Chinese yuan is expected to strengthen, with predictions suggesting a year-end value of 6.92 against the US dollar, driven by market optimism [12][21] Company Analysis - China Overseas Development is positioned to benefit from government policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market, with a closing price of HK$14.53 [22] - Lumentum Holdings reported a revenue of $665.5 million for Q2 2026, a 65% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand in AI and cloud data centers [24] - Super Micro Computer's net sales reached $12.7 billion in Q2 2026, significantly up from previous quarters, reflecting robust growth in AI server demand [25]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Pacific Technology (00522) has shown significant movement, with a price increase of 4.86% to 104.7 HKD, indicating a lively market atmosphere [1] Technical Analysis - The current price is slightly below the 10-day moving average (MA10) of 104.45 HKD but well above the 30-day (MA30) at 92.21 HKD and the 60-day (MA60) at 84.50 HKD, suggesting a long-term upward trend [1] - The 5-day volatility is 11.7%, indicating considerable price fluctuations and potential for short-term trading opportunities [1] - The MACD signal indicates a sell signal, which contrasts with other buy indicators, raising questions about potential market adjustments [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The first support level is at 95.6 HKD, with a second support at 87 HKD; the first resistance level is at 110 HKD, and the second at 114.9 HKD [1] - A breakthrough above 110 HKD could open up further upward potential, while a drop below support levels may increase adjustment pressure [1] - The probability of an upward movement is estimated at 52%, indicating uncertainty in market direction [1] Investment Opportunities - Two call warrants are highlighted for potential investment: - The Macquarie call warrant (23983) with a leverage of 2.8 times and an exercise price of 99.999 HKD, suitable for investors seeking higher returns with the ability to withstand volatility [4] - The JPMorgan call warrant (19879) with a leverage of 2.5 times and a lower exercise price of 95.22 HKD, offering a relatively lower entry cost [4][5] Overall Market Sentiment - The overall technical signals lean towards buying, but the strength is moderate, with various indicators showing mixed results [4] - If the stock price stabilizes above support levels, it may gradually challenge resistance levels, but caution is advised regarding data fluctuations [4]