永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 2025/10/9 | 麥嘉嘉 | 研究部主管 | avis.mak@sinopac.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 張雪婷 | 研究部經理 | samantha.cheung@sinopac.com | | 林仲全 | 研究部資深專員 | kobe.lin@sinopac.com | 1 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部 -今日市埸焦點及策略 今日市埸主要焦點 股市及產品投資策略 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部全球新聞概要 重點國際新聞 3 • 聯儲局9月議息時多數官員稱今年可能適宜繼續寬鬆，投資者憧憬局方減息及美企盈利保持強韌，逢回調吸納科技股， 標指與納指周三創即市及收市歷史新高，標指盤中曾揚0.61%至6755點，收市仍漲0.58%報6753點；納指彈1.12%報 23043點；道指反覆升最多213點，收市轉跌1點；金龍中國指數揚0.87%。輝達及Netflix分別漲2.2%及2%，AMD再 飆11.4%，連續兩日創新高，本周至今累計漲逾43%，費城半導體指數躍高3.4%創新高。 • 聯儲局9月議息紀錄顯示，多數官員稱今年 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in gold prices, reaching a new high of $3,830, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 46% [8] - The focus on AI technology continues to grow, with advancements in inference applications expected to drive industry transformation and enhance corporate profitability [8] - The report identifies key investment themes for the coming years, including AI, power infrastructure, and medical automation [8] Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed positive movement, with the Dow Jones increasing by 68 points and the S&P 500 rising by 0.26% [10] - The Hang Seng Index closed up by 494 points (1.9%), reflecting optimism in the Hong Kong market following strong industrial profit data from mainland China [12] - The report notes that the global market is currently observing the U.S. employment data to assess the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [10] Investment Strategies - The report suggests a focus on "steady growth and diversified defense" in the fourth quarter, emphasizing the importance of active management and precise timing in a volatile environment [8] - High-yield bonds and emerging market hard currency bonds are highlighted as attractive investment options [8] - Specific stock recommendations include ASMPT, which is positioned well in the semiconductor and AI chip sectors, and Jiuzhou Intelligent Investment Holdings, which is expected to benefit from increased market liquidity [18][20] Economic Data - Key economic indicators to be released include China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI for September, with expectations of 49.6 and 50.2 respectively [17] - The report also mentions the upcoming U.S. consumer confidence index and job openings data, which are critical for understanding the economic landscape [17]

觀望本周美國經濟數據，美股周一反覆向好。道指曾下跌約 100 點，全日收升 68 點，漲幅 0.2%，報 46,316 點。標普 500 指數收高 17 點，漲幅 0.3%，報 6,661 點。納指收高 107 點，漲幅 0.5%，報 22,591 點。 美國總統特朗普宣布，將對進口軟木木材及木材徵收 10%的關稅，並對廚櫃、 洗手台及軟墊木製品徵收 25%關稅，新關稅將於 10 月 14 日起實施，部分關稅 將於明年 1 月 1 日起調高。 隨著美國聯邦政府逼近 10 月 1 日停擺，美國關鍵經濟數據可能會暫停公布，因 許多聯邦政府活動將會暫停，非必要員工將暫時休假或遭解僱。如果 9 月 30 日 後美國聯邦政府停擺，首先將會受到影響的將是原定於 10 月 3 日公布的勞工統 計局就業數據，之後會是通脹數據，而零售銷售及新住宅建設數據亦面臨延遲 公布的風險。 英偉達(NVDA.US) 行政總裁黃仁勳接受一個播客訪問時表示，中國在晶片製 造方面僅落後美國數納秒，美國應停止禁向中國出售晶片。他指允許英偉達等 公司向中國出售晶片，會擴散美國科技及擴大美國的地緣政治影響力，符合美 國利益。他又指美國正面對強大、創新 ...

| 信號總結 | 賣出信號 中立信號 | 買入信號 | | --- | --- | --- | | 賣出 | | O | 技術指標呈現複雜訊號。雖然整體技術指標總結給出「賣出」信號，強度為8，但多個重要指標卻顯示積極跡象。RSI指標在74水平顯示超買狀態，但仍維 持買賣中立訊號。多個震盪指標呈現中立態勢，其中威廉指標和隨機震盪指標均保持中立，但CCI指標卻發出買入信號。MACD指標和保力加通道均呈現買 入訊號，這種技術面的分歧正反映市場對中芯短期方向存在較大分歧。 回顧中芯近期衍生產品表現，在9月23日提到的產品中，華泰認購證（14397）兩日後錄得34%的驚人升幅，瑞銀牛證（60514）也有33%的亮眼表現，信證 認購證（20290）則上漲18%，這些衍生產品均大幅跑贏正股同期5.79%的升幅，顯示在波動市中衍生工具的獲利潛力相當可觀。 | 11:03 | | II ? !!! | 11:03 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | AI Q C. ( | | | | 間表 資訊 | 開始 | | 間表 | 輪 論 評論 플言 | | 20322 中芯瑞銀六六購B ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US inflation remains stable, with the Dow Jones reaching a high of 46,714 points, marking the 28th record close for the S&P 500 this year [9] - The report notes a continuous inflow of capital from mainland China into Hong Kong stocks, increasing from approximately 1,108.8 billion to 1,152.7 billion [9] - The investment strategy favors technology stocks and leading companies with AI application potential [9] - The report recommends structured products linked to AI indices, balancing yield and growth potential [9] - It suggests increasing investments in investment-grade corporate bonds to replace cash and short-term government bonds [9] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,128.20, down 1.35%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.89% [14] - The report indicates that the Chinese economy is showing signs of weakening growth momentum, with GDP expected to decline to around 4.5% in Q3 and further to about 4.3% in the second half of the year [12] - The report mentions a "deposit migration" phenomenon in mainland China, where funds are moving from fixed deposits to equity investment products, with only 11% of the total deposits having migrated so far [12] Company Focus - Qingdao Beer Co. reported a net profit of 3.9 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, driven by margin improvements and product upgrades [19] - BYD has adjusted its sales target downwards but anticipates a new growth phase in production and sales in the coming months [12] - The report highlights PACCAR Inc. as benefiting from a new 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks, enhancing its competitive pricing advantage [22] - GlobalFoundries Inc. is expected to benefit from a new regulatory policy encouraging domestic semiconductor production, which may lead to increased local orders and incentives [23]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is currently experiencing mixed sentiments, with bullish investors expecting a settlement price above 26,400 next week, while bearish investors anticipate a drop to between 25,500 and 25,300 [1] - Technical signals indicate a "sell" recommendation, with support levels at 25,574 and 25,200, and resistance levels at 26,700 and 26,900 [1] Group 2: Galaxy Entertainment (00027.HK) - Galaxy Entertainment's stock has been stable in recent months, with a current price of 43 HKD, but technical signals suggest a "sell" stance [4] - Support levels are identified at 42.1 HKD and 40.4 HKD, while resistance levels are at 43.4 HKD and 44.2 HKD [4] Group 3: Meituan-W (03690.HK) - Meituan's stock is currently stabilizing around 100 HKD, with technical signals indicating a "buy" recommendation [10] - Resistance is noted at 107 HKD, with potential to rise to 115 HKD if this level is breached; support levels are at 96.2 HKD and 91.7 HKD [10] Group 4: China Construction Bank (00939.HK) - China Construction Bank's stock has seen a low of 7.22 HKD, with a technical signal leaning towards "buy" [17] - Resistance levels are at 7.63 HKD and 7.86 HKD, with options available at a strike price of 9.9 HKD [17] Group 5: SMIC (00981.HK) - SMIC's stock is currently at 72.95 HKD, with a technical signal indicating a "sell" recommendation [23] - Support levels are at 66.4 HKD and 58.9 HKD, while the first resistance level is at 80.1 HKD [23] Group 6: Yancoal Australia (01171.HK) - Yancoal's stock is currently at 10.31 HKD, with technical signals showing a neutral stance [27] - Resistance levels are at 10.7 HKD and 11.3 HKD, with support levels at 9.8 HKD and 9.4 HKD [27]

| | | 回顧近期窩輪市場表現，9月18日推薦的中銀認購證（19312）在正股上漲7.77%的帶動下，兩日內實現15%的可觀回報，顯示半導體板塊衍生產品在上升行 情中具備良好的獲利能力。 在當前市況下，投資者可關注信證認購證（18768），該產品提供4倍槓桿，行使價設定在75元，最大優勢在於引伸波幅為同類產品中最低，適合看好後市但 希望控制成本的投資者。中銀認購證（19857）行使價73.52元，槓桿2.6倍，溢價32.78%；摩通認購證（19880）同個行使價，槓桿同為2.6倍，溢價更低一 些，處於32.68%；華泰認購證（19739），行使價72.8元，價外10.05%，槓桿有2.54倍。 華虹半導體（01347）近日表現強勢，週三股價上漲3.86%至63.25元，成交金額達38.72億元，顯示市場關注度持續升溫。今日（25日）截止10點05分，股價續升 3.72%，報65.55元。特別值得注意的是，五日振幅高達19%，成交活躍度明顯提升，但保力加通道極度擴張也反映波動風險正在加劇。 回顧昨日專欄【港股Podcast】華虹半導體 (01347.HK)：晶片大爆發，回到什麼位置可以加倉？窩輪市場上，有投資 ...

永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 2025/9/25 1 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部 -今日市埸焦點及策略 今日市埸主要焦點 | 麥嘉嘉 | 研究部主管 | avis.mak@sinopac.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 張雪婷 | 研究部經理 | samantha.cheung@sinopac.com | | 林仲全 | 研究部資深專員 | kobe.lin@sinopac.com | 股市及產品投資策略 2 • 美股回調｜道指周三升160點後轉跌，收市滑落171點。 • 美債息上升 ｜美國10年期債息一度升3.5基點，至4.155厘，2 年期債息漲3.4基點，至3.604厘。 • 金價微跌｜現貨金價曾倒跌1.24%，每盎斯低見3717.54美元； 收報3736.14，仍挫0.74%。 • 短中期債券｜建議布局短中期期美債，兼顧收益與利率風險管理 • 非線性結構 ｜區間產品或雙向掛鉤，應對高波動並保本 • 利差策略｜ 善用地區與資產類別利差，提升整體投資效率 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部全球新聞概要 重點國際新聞 3 • 儘管阿里巴巴(09988)承諾 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces resistance around 27,200 points, with a projected P/E ratio of approximately 13 times over the next 12 months, as the market reacts to eased trade tensions between China and the US and a shift in US monetary policy expectations [2] - The overall market sentiment remains active, with capital rotating across different sectors, although much of the positive news has already been priced in [2] Macro Focus - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce supports the healthy development of new business models such as live-streaming e-commerce and aims to increase the supply of AI terminal products [4][10] - In September, 156 domestic and imported game licenses were approved, including titles from Tencent and NetEase [10] - The US has implemented a 15% tariff on EU automobiles, which may impact the financial performance of major German automakers [10][11] Corporate News - Zijin Mining's international gold subsidiary has postponed its IPO to September 25, aiming to raise up to 24.98 billion HKD [12] - Dongshan Precision plans to list in Hong Kong to raise approximately 1 billion USD [12] - Alibaba is increasing its investment in AI infrastructure to 380 billion RMB, emphasizing the importance of AI in future technology [12] - Mech-Mind Robotics, backed by Meituan, is seeking to raise 200 million USD through a Hong Kong IPO [12] - JD, Midea, and Alibaba are leading the top 100 online retail companies in China, with total sales exceeding 2.17 trillion RMB, reflecting a 13.6% year-on-year growth [10] AI and Technology Sector - The AI industry in China reached a scale of over 900 billion RMB in 2022, growing by 24% year-on-year [10] - Alibaba Cloud is expanding its international presence by establishing data centers in Brazil, France, and other countries, aiming to support global AI enterprises [12] - The rise of AI applications is expected to reshape consumer behavior and drive new business models in the retail sector [10] Trade Relations - Ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China are expected to address various economic issues, although no significant agreements are anticipated in the immediate future [11] - The US is considering providing a 20 billion USD currency swap line to Argentina to stabilize its economy amid recent financial turmoil [11] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,519 points, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 32.20% [7] - The performance of major indices varies, with the Hang Seng Technology Index showing a year-to-date increase of 41.52% [7] Consumer Behavior - The demand for travel stocks is expected to rise as the Golden Week approaches, indicating a potential increase in consumer spending [9] - Douyin's e-commerce platform has seen a 34% year-on-year increase in order volume, highlighting the growth of digital consumption [10] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in AI and technology sectors, particularly in companies focusing on innovative solutions and digital transformation [10][12] - The ongoing development of the digital economy in China presents avenues for growth in various industries, including e-commerce and AI applications [10]

港股半導體股盤初拉升，中芯國際漲近4%，股價再創歷史新高，最高見75.6元。五日振幅高達15.2%，顯示市場情緒激烈交戰。當前股價66.56元已突破10日 線，並大幅超越30日線59.78元及60日線54.04元，形成強勢多頭排列。 值得警惕的是，相對強弱指數（RSI）已達79超買水準，技術指標總結信號更出現「強力賣出」，與多頭走勢形成強烈背離。雖然隨機震盪指標顯示超買賣 出信號，但MACD與牛熊力量指標仍維持買入態勢，這種技術面矛盾預示股價可能面臨劇烈震盪。 值得關注的是，回顧9月17日專欄【中銀做客】Niki:如果有一直關注我們節目的投資者都有留意到，我們一直都有講到981股份。一路都有跟大 家講晶片股份，消息面有收購合併。中芯A股方面和華虹都有停牌。最近新聞講中芯中芯國際正在測試由上海初創公司宇量昇製造的深紫外光刻 機。目前有國產自己的光刻機的測試，這個消息令投資者比較興奮。今日股價飆升，收市升幅7.12%，股價67.7元的位置。晶片這個板塊，一直 都有提醒大家要留意。今日有資金流入。雖然有少量資金流入淡倉，但投資者都比較相信這個板塊，繼續部署好倉。比如中芯國際的認購證 （20316），行使價73.85 ...