彼得·阿特沃特/文 如果说有一项决策最挑战我们的直觉和天性偏见，那就是投资。例如，股价会随着大众信心的提升而上 涨。其结果便是，我们（有些人可能会说这是非理性的）最想投资的时候，恰恰是价格处于顶峰之时， 而非价格处于低点、获利机会最大的时候。当股价最实惠的时候，我们却最恐惧，几乎无法想象前方会 有光明的未来。所以我们不会踊跃进场，而是转身逃离。 因此，对于投资者，以及那些受托代表他人将资本投入新工厂、新业务和新市场的企业领导者而言，若 要成功，就必须克服那种与生俱来的信心冲动，否则这种冲动会驱使我们在最高点买入、在最低点卖 出。 这正是我写本书的原因。我相信，如果我们能理解信心究竟是什么以及它如何影响我们的行为，我们就 能做出更好的选择。经过多年研究，我相信，我们的确定性和控制感不仅是推动金融市场的无形之手， 也驱动着我们周遭的世界。简而言之，我们—无论是投资者、企业领导者、政策制定者还是装配线工人 —都依感觉而行。 许多人轻视感觉，不将其视为决策中的一个因素。例如，投资者常常难以处理像感觉这样的定性因素， 认为它们过于情绪化而无实用价值。相反，他们着眼于企业盈利、销售和其他数据，相信这些数据更客 观，因此也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under increasing pressure due to political instability, which is undermining investment confidence in Japan [1] Group 1: Political Uncertainty - The recent Japanese upper house elections have reignited political uncertainty, adding to the vulnerabilities following last October's turmoil [1] - This political volatility coincides with the final deadline for Japan-U.S. trade negotiations on August 1, which is expected to amplify pressure on the yen [1] Group 2: Impact on Japanese Stocks - While the depreciation of the yen may benefit export-oriented companies, the surrounding political noise is likely to weaken overall investment confidence [1] - Any reliable resolution to the ongoing issues, although unlikely in the short term, could break a year-long deadlock and refocus attention on Japan's long-term economic outlook [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant reduction in inflation concerns among American consumers, attributed to President Trump's retraction of aggressive tariff proposals [1] - The consumer inflation expectations for the next year have dropped to 3.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from April, while three-year expectations fell to 3% and five-year expectations slightly decreased to 2.6% [1] - The New York Fed's survey provides a more stable perspective on inflation expectations compared to other surveys, reflecting a positive shift in consumer sentiment [1] Group 2 - The White House's National Economic Council Director stated that inflation has seen its most significant decline in four years, contrary to mainstream beliefs, while tariff revenues are increasing [2] - The preferred core inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, recorded a low of 2.1% in April, with the core PCE at 2.5%, indicating a long-term trend [2] - Consumer expectations for most price categories have decreased, with the anticipated rise in food prices at 5.5%, while gasoline price expectations slowed to 2.7% [2]