摩根大通私人 银行亚洲固定收益信贷策略主管李子隽表示，香港 房地产似乎正由危机时期逐步迈向初 步复苏的迹象，对于专注优质资产的投资者而言，香港房地产信贷在市场转角之际提供了具吸引力的机 会。投资策略方面，虽对香港房地产信贷的看法愈来愈正面，但仍维持审慎、专注质素的投资取向。他 表示，首选配置投资级信贷，BBB级以上的发展商可提供约5%收益率；在优质发行人的有评级永久债 中看到策略性机会；至于无评级债券，则保持高度审慎。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of gradual recovery from the crisis period, presenting attractive opportunities for investors focused on quality assets [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The outlook for Hong Kong real estate credit is becoming increasingly positive, but the company maintains a cautious and quality-focused investment approach [1] - Preferred investments include investment-grade credit, with developers rated BBB and above offering approximately 5% yield [1] - Strategic opportunities are identified in rated perpetual bonds from quality issuers, while a high level of caution is maintained regarding unrated bonds [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The report highlights a more positive outlook for the Hong Kong real estate credit market, driven by improving fundamentals, reduced refinancing pressures, and multiple demand factors [1] - The pressure of maturing Hong Kong real estate credit in 2026 has significantly decreased to approximately $2.6 billion, alleviating short-term refinancing pressures and providing more space for developers [1] - Despite some isolated defaults, the risk of widespread contagion remains low [1]

Group 1: Economic Trends in Asia - The growth dynamics in Asian emerging markets are shifting, with geopolitical and tariff-related risks becoming major drivers for the bond market, impacting economic fundamentals and development prospects [1] - Despite strong economic growth in the region, it is partially attributed to exporters' "advance shipments," and external growth momentum is expected to weaken in 2026 due to soft global demand and high base effects [1] - Different Asian economies are adopting varied strategies to cope with reduced external demand, such as Indonesia and Thailand increasing subsidies for low-income households, India implementing new GST reforms, and China focusing on industrial transformation [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation levels in Asia are continuing to decline, exceeding market expectations, which provides greater room for monetary policy easing by central banks [1] - Unlike many other regions, Asian emerging markets have not experienced significant post-pandemic inflation spikes, allowing for a generally accommodative monetary policy stance across the region [1] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - In the hard currency sovereign and quasi-sovereign bond market, countries with relatively less fiscal stimulus maintain robust fundamentals, but further upside may be limited due to narrowed spreads [2] - Local currency bond markets favor economies with prudent fiscal policies, with expectations of continued monetary easing and significant downward potential for government bond yields [2] - The performance of local currency bonds is also influenced by exchange rate trends, with the Indian government’s focus on growth without excessive public spending making it particularly attractive [3] Group 4: Investment Grade Credit Resilience - Since 2025, Asian investment-grade bonds have shown solid returns despite global uncertainties, supported by stable macroeconomic fundamentals and limited new debt issuance [4] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that interest rate trends will remain a key driver for total returns in Asian investment-grade bonds, with a focus on the U.S. economic growth outlook [4][5] - The current spread levels indicate limited additional returns for taking on excessive credit risk, with the yield spread between BBB and A-rated bonds at approximately 33 basis points, reflecting high valuations [5] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Strategies - The technical factors in the Asian market remain favorable, with a projected $168 billion in investment-grade bonds maturing in 2026, leading to a low new issuance environment [6] - A defensive allocation strategy is recommended due to high current valuations, focusing on yield spreads and diversifying credit exposure to enhance portfolio stability [6] - Active management of country and sector allocations is essential to navigate external shocks and seize investment opportunities effectively [6]