一、亚洲新兴市场增长动力发生转变 回顾2025年，地缘政治与关税相关风险成为亚洲债券市场的主要驱动因素，并对新兴市场的经济基本面 与发展前景产生影响。尽管该地区经济增长依然强劲，但这在一定程度上得益于出口商的"提前出货"行 为。考虑到全球需求疲软以及前期高基数的影响，我们预计2026年外部拉动力的增长势头可能难以持 续。 面对外部动力减弱，亚洲各经济体正采取不同应对策略。例如，印尼和泰国通过向低收入家庭增发津贴 来提振本地消费；印度实施了新的商品及服务税改革，以刺激家庭支出；中国则继续推进产业转型升 级，致力于提升其在全球价值链中的地位。 在亚洲当地货币债券市场方面，我们更青睐采取审慎财政政策的经济体。预计货币政策将保持宽松，亚 洲各国政府债券收益率具有明显的下行潜力。然而，激进的财政扩张可能对债券供应造成压力，促使市 场参与者转向其他利差更具吸引力、资本增值潜力更大的新兴市场。 亚洲地区的通胀水平持续温和下行，超出市场预期，这为各国央行提供了更大的货币政策宽松空间。与 许多其他地区不同，亚洲新兴市场并未出现疫情后的通胀大幅攀升。尽管各国财政政策存在差异，但低 通胀环境以及央行倾向于宽松的政策立场，在亚洲新兴 ...

Group 1 - The recent auction of $58 billion 3-year U.S. Treasury bonds faced poor demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.47, the lowest since October 2024 [1] - The awarded yield for the 3-year bonds was 3.784%, significantly higher than the pre-auction yield of 3.760%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1] - Direct bidders, including hedge funds and pension funds, received only 6.2% of the bonds, marking one of the lowest participation rates in history, down from 26% the previous month [1] Group 2 - Concerns are rising that foreign investors are withdrawing from the U.S. Treasury market, as indicated by the poor performance of the recent bond auction [2] - Upcoming auctions for $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year Treasury bonds are expected to be critical in assessing demand for longer-duration securities [2] - Analysts suggest that the recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries signals a shift away from the U.S. as a safe haven for fixed income, with investors potentially favoring bonds from Europe and Australia [2] Group 3 - Asian investment-grade bonds have shown resilience amid global risk asset sell-offs, outperforming U.S. investment-grade bonds with lower spread widening [2] - Focus on local markets with stable fundamentals is expected to provide investment opportunities in Asian bond issuers, particularly in sectors like TMT, utilities, and non-banking financial companies in India [3]