Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that uncertainty in tariff policies and strong demand from ETFs and central banks will push gold prices above $4,000 per ounce by 2025, with potential to exceed $5,055 by the end of 2026 due to new demand from Chinese insurance companies and the cryptocurrency sector [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Projections - Morgan Stanley expects the gold bull market to continue into 2026, driven by strong demand factors, with prices projected to reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [2][3]. - The average gold price in Q3 2025 is estimated at $3,458 per ounce, with a quarterly demand influx of approximately $109 billion, significantly higher than previous quarters [3]. - The bank forecasts that central banks will purchase an average of 585 tons of gold per quarter in 2026, contributing to price increases [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Central bank gold purchases are expected to remain high, with a projected total of 755 tons in 2026, despite a decrease from the previous three years' average of over 1,000 tons [4]. - The report indicates that if central banks with gold reserves below 10% increase their holdings to that level at a price of $4,000 per ounce, it would require approximately $335 billion to purchase about 2,600 tons of gold [7]. - Brazil and South Korea are highlighted as countries actively increasing their gold reserves, indicating ongoing central bank demand [7]. Group 3: Investor Demand - Investor demand for gold is anticipated to remain strong, with ETF inflows projected at around 250 tons in 2026, and demand for gold bars and coins expected to exceed 1,200 tons annually [8][11]. - The share of gold in total managed assets is expected to rise from 2.8% to potentially 4%-5% in the coming years, reflecting a structural trend towards diversification into gold [11]. - The report suggests that even a small shift of 0.5% of foreign dollar assets into gold could significantly increase demand, potentially pushing prices to $6,000 per ounce [11]. Group 4: Price Forecasts - Morgan Stanley's price forecasts for gold in 2026 are as follows: Q1 at $4,440, Q2 at $4,655, Q3 at $4,860, and Q4 at $5,055, with expectations of reaching $5,400 by the end of 2027 [12].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to show strong performance, with London spot gold surpassing $4,300 per ounce, supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Performance - As of December 15, 2023, London gold spot prices increased by 0.93%, reaching $4,339.95 per ounce [2]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while UBS maintains a target of $4,500 per ounce for June 2026, and Bank of America has raised its target to $5,000 per ounce for the same year [4]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Global gold ETFs have seen significant inflows, with November alone adding $5.2 billion, marking the sixth consecutive month of inflows, despite a decrease compared to previous months [4]. - As of the end of November, the total size of gold ETFs reached $530 billion, reflecting a 5.4% increase for the month [4]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - Key factors influencing gold prices include the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut of 25 basis points, a decline in U.S. inflation data, and strong bullish sentiment among institutional investors, as evidenced by an increase in SPDR Gold ETF holdings [5]. - UBS views gold as an effective risk hedging tool, especially as the dollar weakens and geopolitical uncertainties persist, alongside strong central bank gold purchasing data and investment demand [5].