黄金价格预测

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瑞银:首次覆盖紫金黄金国际(02259)予“买入”评级 目标价189港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 07:05
该信息由智通财经网提供 鉴于瑞银看涨的黄金价格展望,及紫金黄金国际的营运指标,瑞银预计公司盈利从2025年的13亿美元, 增长至2027年的22亿美元,隐含30%的复合年均增长率。2025至2027年的运营收入,分别为49亿、68 亿,以及74亿美元,归属股东净利润从2025财年的13亿美元上升至2027财年的22亿美元(隐含30%的盈 利复合年均增长率)。 智通财经APP获悉,瑞银发布研报称,首次覆盖紫金黄金国际(02259),予"买入"评级,目标价189港 元。瑞银表示,紫金黄金国际是紫金矿业(02899)海外黄金矿的分拆子公司,预计公司的产量,在2025 至2027年将实现约20%的复合年均增长率,总产量从45吨增加至65吨,从而带来30%的盈利复合年均增 长率。 瑞银已将2025至2027年黄金价格预测,分别上调至3,320美元、3,825美元、3,650美元/盎司,高 于市场共识7%。鉴于紫金黄金国际的强劲盈利增长,以及品质保证,瑞银将紫金黄金国际目标价定在 189元,相当于2026年预测市盈率30倍,较香港/中国金矿企业2026年预测市盈率15至25倍的区间,存有 溢价。 瑞银表示,紫金黄金国际在 ...
黄金-因资金持续流入,上调黄金价格至4900$预测-Precious Comment_ Raising Our Gold Price Forecast on Sticky Inflows
2025-10-09 02:00
6 October 2025 | 8:33PM EDT Commodities Research Precious Comment: Raising Our Gold Price Forecast on Sticky Inflows Lina Thomas +1(212)902-8376 | lina.thomas@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bc ...
高盛:上调黄金价格预测至每盎司4,900美元 基于持续资金流入
智通财经网· 2025-10-08 03:06
高盛认为,其升级后的黄金价格预测的风险净值仍偏向上行,因为私人部门多元化转向相对较小的黄金 市场,可能将ETF持仓推升至高于其利率隐含估计的水平。 智通财经APP获悉,高盛发布研报称,将2026年12月黄金价格预测上调至每盎司4,900美元(先前为4,300 美元),因为自8月26日以来推动其17%涨幅的资金流入。高盛指,西方ETF流入以及可能的央行购买, 在高盛的定价框架中是持续性的,有效抬高了该行价格预测的起点。相比之下,较为波动的投机性持仓 大致保持稳定。 高盛表示,尽管起点较高,其预测到2026年底的23%价格上涨幅度大致不变;仍预期央行购买量在2025 至2026年平均为80吨或70吨,因为新兴市场央行很可能继续将其储备进行结构性多元化转向黄金;随着 联储局在2026年中,将联邦基金利率下调100个基点,西方ETF持仓将上升(到2026年12月贡献5个百分 点);投机性持仓将逐步正常化(到2026年12月贡献负1个百分点)。 ...
高盛高举看涨大旗:金价超预期上涨的风险更高!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-10-01 09:43
AI播客:换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 黄金ETF持仓走高 音频由扣子空间生成 根据高盛9月30日发布在官网的文章,该行研究部重申金价到2026年中期将达到每盎司4000美元的预测。这一预测的支撑来自核心买家群体的新增需求—— 正是这些买家推动黄金价格屡创历史新高。2025年以来,黄金价格已上涨近48%,有望连续第三年录得两位数涨幅。 高盛金价预测的具体内容 第二类是"投机型买家",例如新兴市场的家庭投资者,他们会在认为"价格合适"时才入场。在金价下跌时,他们可能为价格提供支撑;而在金价上涨时,他 们则可能成为上涨阻力。 金价为何持续上涨? 高盛研究部对各国央行黄金交易活动的实时预测显示,7月各国央行的购金量低于今年月均水平。今年以来,各国央行月均购金64吨,低于高盛研究部此前 预测的月均80吨。 托马斯解释道:"这符合季节性规律——央行购金通常在夏季放缓,从9月开始重新加速。" 她补充称:"但这种季节性规律,反而支撑了我们对央行购金趋势的原有判断(即长期向上)。" 自2022年俄乌冲突爆发导致俄罗斯外汇储备被冻结以来,各国央行(尤其是新兴市场央行)的购金节奏已加快约5倍。托马斯在报告中写道:"我们认为,这 是 ...
每日投资策略:大市获利回吐,恒指2万7遇阻力-20250919
Guodu Securities Hongkong· 2025-09-19 01:48
· 2025 年 9 月 19 日 国都港股操作导航 海外市场重要指数 收市 幅度 道琼斯工业指数 46142.42 0.27 标普 500 指数 6631.96 0.48 纳斯达克综合指数 22470.73 0.94 英国富时 100 指数 9228.11 0.21 德国 DAX 指数 23674.53 1.35 日经 225 指数 45303.43 1.15 台湾加权指数 25769.36 1.30 内地股市 上证指数 3831.66 -1.15 深证成指 13075.66 -1.06 香港股市 恒生指数 26544.85 -1.35 国企指数 9456.52 -1.46 红筹指数 4257.65 -1.43 恒生科技指数 6271.22 -0.99 AH 股溢价指数 117.49 -0.65 恒生期货 (9 月) 26612 0.25 恒生期货 (10 月) 26691 0.23 国都香港研究部 电话:852-34180288 网址:www.guodu.com.hk 每日投资策略 大市获利回吐 恒指 2 万 7 遇阻力 港股周三抽高 469 点、再创逾 4 年高位后,昨日则低开 后在芯片股及科技股领军下 ...
黄金远未到天花板?高盛、瑞银双双上调金价预测!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-12 08:33
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term gold price forecast for 2029 from $2850/oz to $3300/oz, maintaining a positive outlook on gold prices with potential risks pushing prices to $4500-$5000/oz [1] - The revision by Goldman Sachs comes after a sustained increase in gold prices and gold stocks, with Newmont rated as neutral but showing positive prospects in production, free cash flow, and capital management [2] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that margin expansion is a key driver for the strong performance of mining stocks, expecting the current gold stock cycle to continue, outperforming commodities throughout 2025 [3] Group 2 - UBS has also raised its gold price forecasts, increasing the 2025 year-end prediction by $300 to $3800/oz and the mid-2026 forecast by $200 to $3900/oz, citing expected Fed easing policies and geopolitical risks affecting the dollar [4] - UBS revised its estimate for gold ETF holdings, predicting they will exceed 3900 tons by the end of 2025, close to the record of 3915 tons set in October 2020, maintaining a bullish view on gold [4] - UBS expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong at around 900-950 tons this year, slightly below last year's record levels, while highlighting the key risk of unexpected Fed rate hikes due to inflation [4]
澳新银行上调2025年底黄金目标价至3800美元/盎司
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-10 08:37
资讯编辑:王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督:乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉:陈跃进 021-26093100 澳新银行将2025年底黄金目标价从3600美元/盎司上调至3800美元/盎司,预计黄金将在2026年6月达 到近4000美元/盎司的高点。将2025年底白银目标价上调至44.7美元/盎司。 ...
高盛警告:美联储信誉一旦受损,黄金或飙至近5000美元
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-04 06:15
Group 1 - Goldman Sachs warns that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised, a small shift of U.S. Treasury holdings to gold could drive prices to nearly $5,000 per ounce [1][5] - The report outlines three scenarios for gold prices: a baseline prediction of $4,000 by mid-2026, a tail risk scenario of $4,500, and an extreme case where just 1% of private U.S. Treasury holdings flow into gold, pushing prices close to $5,000 [1][5][6] - Gold is characterized as a "store of value that does not rely on institutional trust," making it particularly appealing in the context of concerns over central bank independence [5][6] Group 2 - Recent actions by Trump to exert control over the Federal Reserve, including attempts to remove board member Lisa Cook, have raised concerns about the central bank's independence [4] - ECB President Christine Lagarde has warned that a loss of independence for the Federal Reserve could pose "serious dangers" to the global economy [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a strong bullish stance on gold, viewing it as the "highest conviction buy" in the commodities sector, with significant price increases expected even under baseline conditions [5][6]
贵金属分析师- 黄金市场入门-Precious Analyst_ Gold Market Primer
2025-08-18 08:23
Summary of Gold Market Primer Industry Overview - The document provides an overview of the global gold market, emphasizing its unique characteristics compared to other commodities. Gold is primarily accumulated rather than consumed, with nearly all mined gold still in existence, making traditional supply-demand models inadequate for forecasting gold prices [1][12][29]. Key Points and Arguments Gold Market Dynamics - Gold is not consumed but stored, with new annual production adding just over 1% to the existing stock, which is stable and price inelastic [1][12][16]. - The gold price reflects the willingness of buyers to hold gold versus those willing to sell it, categorized into two groups: conviction buyers (ETFs, central banks, speculators) and opportunistic buyers (households in emerging markets) [1][32]. - Conviction flows account for 70% of monthly gold price movements, with 100 tonnes of net purchases by conviction holders corresponding to a 1.7% rise in gold price [1][34][39]. Market Structure - The gold market is dominated by two trading hubs: London (physical market) and New York (speculative paper market) [2][4]. - London serves as the core for large transactions, while New York operates through COMEX futures, which are rarely delivered physically [3][4]. - Switzerland acts as a global refining hub, facilitating the flow of gold between London and New York [6][72]. Emerging Markets - Emerging markets, particularly China and India, are significant retail gold markets. China controls gold inflows through a quota system, while India uses high import duties to manage demand [8][100]. - The UAE is emerging as a trading hub, often trading gold at a discount to London prices due to less stringent provenance standards [9]. Central Bank and ETF Demand - Central banks have shifted from net sellers to net buyers of gold, particularly after geopolitical tensions and financial crises, with a notable fivefold increase in purchases following the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022 [62][68]. - ETF demand is sensitive to US policy rates, with a 25 basis point cut resulting in approximately 60 tonnes of ETF demand over six months [53][58]. Speculative Positioning - Speculative positioning in gold is characterized as "fast money," which reacts quickly to market events and tends to mean-revert, creating short-term volatility [78][80]. - The relationship between gold prices and institutional credibility is highlighted, with gold serving as a hedge during periods of lost confidence in monetary systems [81][82]. Local Market Dynamics - Local market dynamics in China and India create price disconnects from the global benchmark, with premiums or discounts emerging based on local supply-demand conditions [88][100]. - India's Sovereign Gold Bond program aims to reduce physical gold imports and stabilize the currency, but uptake has been limited outside urban areas [107][108]. Other Important Insights - The document emphasizes that high prices do not necessarily cure high prices in the gold market, as the available supply is largely unaffected by price changes [46]. - The analysis of historical events, such as the 1970s inflation crisis, illustrates how gold prices can surge when institutional credibility erodes [47][81]. - The framework for understanding gold price movements is formalized, focusing on the balance between conviction and opportunistic demand [110][111]. This comprehensive overview of the gold market highlights its unique characteristics, the dynamics of demand and supply, and the influence of macroeconomic factors on pricing.
分析师全线看涨黄金
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-04 09:33
Group 1 - The core sentiment among Wall Street analysts is optimistic regarding gold prices, with all 17 analysts participating in a survey expressing bullish views after gold prices broke through the key short-term resistance level of $3,350 per ounce following weak non-farm data [1] - There has been a reduction in speculative positions in gold and silver, with a decrease of 28,021 contracts in gold net long positions, bringing the total to 142,846 contracts, and a decrease of 1,631 contracts in silver net long positions, totaling 43,633 contracts [2] - The closing prices for gold and silver in the domestic market showed an increase, with gold rising by 1.36% to 781.42 yuan per gram and silver increasing by 1.3% to 9,039 yuan per kilogram [3]