Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hutchison China MediTech Limited (0013.HK) [1][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the continuous expansion of product indications and the promising future of the ATTC platform, which is anticipated to inject new vitality into its pipeline [7][8]. - The revenue guidance for the oncology business has been revised down to USD 270-350 million for 2025, primarily due to delays in milestone income from partners and the postponement of the new drug application approval for a key product in China [4][8]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of USD 278 million, with oncology business revenue of USD 144 million [4]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to USD 448 million, USD 92 million, and USD 109 million respectively, reflecting a significant increase from previous forecasts [8]. - The company’s revenue is expected to decline by 24.8% in 2024, followed by a slight decrease of 3.0% in 2025, before recovering with growth rates of 14.1% and 11.1% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [6][10]. Product Development and Market Position - The ATTC platform is expected to create a rich pipeline of drug candidates targeting a wide range of tumor indications, with clinical development planned to begin by the end of 2025 [7]. - The company’s core product, Savolitinib, has received approval for a new lung cancer indication in China, which is expected to participate in national medical insurance negotiations by the end of the year [7]. Market Performance - The stock is currently priced at HKD 25.2, with a total market capitalization of HKD 199.74 billion [1]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 44.6% in 2024 to 50.0% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing rapid growth in overseas sales while facing pressure in domestic sales, leading to adjustments in revenue guidance for its oncology business [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The total sales of oncology products for the first half of 2025 reached $234 million, reflecting a 4% decline [1]. - Overseas sales of furmonertinib amounted to $163 million, showing a 25% increase due to accelerated market access [1]. - Domestic sales of furmonertinib were $43 million, down 29%, while sales of savolitinib and sugemalimab decreased by 41% and 50%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Revenue Guidance and Market Competition - The comprehensive revenue from the oncology immunotherapy business was $144 million, down 14.9%, attributed to competitive pressures in the domestic market [2]. - The revenue guidance for the oncology business has been adjusted to $270-350 million, down from the previous estimate of $350-450 million, due to delays in milestone revenues and product launches [2]. Group 3: Clinical Developments and Future Prospects - Savolitinib has significant potential for new indications, with successful global clinical trials progressing, and it is expected to participate in upcoming medical insurance negotiations in China [2]. - The ATTC platform is anticipated to produce its first clinical candidate in the second half of the year, with plans to present preclinical data at academic conferences [2]. Group 4: Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to $604 million, $718 million, and $829 million, down from previous estimates [3]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to $430 million, $68 million, and $108 million, reflecting an increase for 2025 but a decrease for 2026 and 2027 [3].