2025 年 08 月 23 日 和黄医药(00013.HK) ATTC 平台候选药物即将进入临床开 发，后续多个里程碑事件值得期待 事件：公司发布 2025 年中期业绩，报告期内公司实现营业收入 2.78 亿美元，实现归母净利润 4.55 亿美元。 呋喹替尼海外市场持续放量。海外市场上，由武田负责销售的 FRUZAQLA® (呋喹替尼的海外商品名) 市场销售额增长 25%至 1.628 亿美元，得益于覆盖范围扩大至超过 30 个国家。国内市场 上，爱优特® (呋喹替尼的中国商品名) 实现销售额 4,300 万美 元 (2024 年上半年: 6,100 万美元)，反映市场竞争加剧以及销售 团队结构优化，但近期已恢复增长。 后续多个里程碑事件值得期待，ATTC 平台候选药物即将进入临 床开发。 1）赛沃替尼：计划于 2025 年下半年完成 SAFFRON III 期研究的 患者招募，并于 2026 年上半年读出数据；计划于 2025 年下半年 完成 SANOVO 中国 III 期研究的患者招募； 2）索乐匹尼布：计划于 2026 年上半年重新提交基于 ESLIM-01 研 究的国家药监局新药上市申请，计划于 2 ...

机构：东方证券 研究员：伍云飞/傅肖依 国内销售收入短期承压，海外稳步放量。公司25 年上半年实现收入2.78 亿美元，肿瘤业务收入1.44 亿 美元，其中肿瘤产品收入0.99 亿美元，同比-29%，主要系呋喹替尼等产品竞争加剧导致国内销售收入 下滑；首付款、监管里程碑及研发服务收入为0.44 亿美元，较去年略有增长。公司下调全年肿瘤业务收 入指引至2.7-3.5 亿美元，主要系考虑到部分里程碑收入款项延迟确认，以及索乐匹尼布的上市时间推 迟。 新产品获批及新适应症拓展有望开启第二增长曲线。1）呋喹替尼：25 年上半年实现销售额2.06 亿美元 （海外1.63 亿美元/国内0.43 亿美元）。海外继续保持快速增长势头（同比+25%），主要得益于在日 本、美国、欧盟等主要市场的优异表现，我们认为未来随着呋喹替尼的市场份额进一步提升，海外有望 继续稳定放量。国内方面，子宫内膜癌、肾细胞癌等新增适应症获批有望贡献业绩增量。2）赛沃替 尼：用于二线治疗MET 扩增的EGFR 突变非小细胞肺癌已在国内获批，有望今年参与医保谈判并重启 高速增长；海外方面，多个适应症同步推进，如治疗奥希替尼耐药的非小细胞肺癌的三期临床 （ ...

和黄医药 00013.HK 公司研究 | 中报点评 ——和黄医药 2025 年中报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到部分产品竞争加剧，我们下调公司 2025-2027 年营业收入分别为 6.00、 7.06、7.97 亿美元（原预测值为 7.30、8.41、9.49 亿美元）。根据可比公司，我们 给予公司 2026 年 6.06 倍 PS，对应目标价为 38.32 港元（汇率约 7.81），维持买入 评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 创新药研发进度不及预期、产品竞争加剧或者销售不及预期、公司中长期盈利能力 下降的风险。 公司主要财务信息 海外稳步放量，储备管线注入新动能 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 838.00 | 630.20 | 600.43 | 705.84 | 796.91 | | 同比增长 (%) | 96.52% | -24.80% | -4.72% | 17.56% | 12.90% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 100.7 ...

Group 1 - The company achieved revenue of $278 million in the first half of 2025, with oncology business revenue of $144 million, including $99 million from oncology products and $44 million from upfront payments, milestone payments, R&D investments, and other income [1] - The latest oncology business guidance for 2025 is revised to $270-350 million, down from the previous $350-450 million, primarily due to delayed milestone income from partners until 2026 and beyond, and the new drug application approval for Solipnib in China expected to be completed after 2025 [1] - Domestic competition has led to a decline in sales, while the expansion of product indications is expected to drive performance growth [1] Group 2 - The new generation ATTC technology platform has the potential to create a rich pipeline of candidate drugs covering a wide range of oncology indications, including precision therapies for specific disease subtypes [2] - The company plans to announce preclinical data at academic conferences this year, with multiple successful developments of ATTC molecules expected to bring collaboration and licensing opportunities in the future [2] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating, as core products continue to expand indications, which is expected to drive performance growth, and the ATTC platform is anticipated to inject new vitality into the pipeline [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing rapid growth in overseas sales while facing pressure in domestic sales, leading to adjustments in revenue guidance for its oncology business [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The total sales of oncology products for the first half of 2025 reached $234 million, reflecting a 4% decline [1]. - Overseas sales of furmonertinib amounted to $163 million, showing a 25% increase due to accelerated market access [1]. - Domestic sales of furmonertinib were $43 million, down 29%, while sales of savolitinib and sugemalimab decreased by 41% and 50%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Revenue Guidance and Market Competition - The comprehensive revenue from the oncology immunotherapy business was $144 million, down 14.9%, attributed to competitive pressures in the domestic market [2]. - The revenue guidance for the oncology business has been adjusted to $270-350 million, down from the previous estimate of $350-450 million, due to delays in milestone revenues and product launches [2]. Group 3: Clinical Developments and Future Prospects - Savolitinib has significant potential for new indications, with successful global clinical trials progressing, and it is expected to participate in upcoming medical insurance negotiations in China [2]. - The ATTC platform is anticipated to produce its first clinical candidate in the second half of the year, with plans to present preclinical data at academic conferences [2]. Group 4: Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to $604 million, $718 million, and $829 million, down from previous estimates [3]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to $430 million, $68 million, and $108 million, reflecting an increase for 2025 but a decrease for 2026 and 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23]. Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid growth in overseas sales, particularly for its main product, furmonertinib, which saw overseas sales of $163 million (+25%). However, domestic sales are under pressure, with a decline in sales for other products [1][7]. - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for its oncology business to $270-350 million, down from a previous estimate of $350-450 million, due to delays in milestone revenues and the expected postponement of the launch of another product in China [1][7]. - The ATTC platform is expected to produce its first clinical candidate in the second half of the year, with plans to present preclinical data at academic conferences [2][21]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to $604 million, $718 million, and $829 million, respectively, down from previous estimates [3][23]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to $43 million, $6.8 million, and $10.8 million, respectively, reflecting a significant increase in 2025 due to asset sales [3][23]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net income of $455 million in the first half of 2025, a substantial increase of 1649.8%, primarily driven by sales from core products and asset sales [11]. - Research and development expenses decreased to $72 million (-24.2%), while sales and administrative expenses also declined to $42 million (-28.0%), indicating effective cost control measures [11]. Product Development and Clinical Trials - Furmonertinib continues to expand in overseas markets, with recent approvals in over 30 countries and strong initial sales performance in Japan [17]. - The company is advancing its pipeline with several clinical trials, including the SACHI study for savolitinib, which is expected to read out data in 2025 [18][19]. - Other key products are also progressing in clinical trials, with positive results anticipated for various indications [19][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23]. Core Viewpoints - The company is experiencing rapid growth in overseas sales, particularly for its main product, furmonertinib, which saw overseas sales of $163 million (+25%). However, domestic sales are under pressure, with a total tumor product sales of $234 million (-4%) in the first half of 2025 [1][7]. - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for its oncology business to $270-350 million, down from a previous estimate of $350-450 million, due to delays in milestone revenues from partners and the expected delay in the launch of another product in China [1][7]. - The ATTC platform is expected to produce its first clinical candidate in the second half of the year, with plans to present preclinical data at academic conferences [2][21]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the total sales for oncology products reached $234 million, with furmonertinib contributing $163 million from overseas (+25%) and $43 million from domestic sales (-29%). Other products like savolitinib and sugemalimab also faced declines in sales [1][7]. - The overall revenue from the tumor immunotherapy business was $144 million (-14.9%), indicating competitive pressure in the domestic market [1][7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised to $604 million, $718 million, and $829 million, respectively, down from previous estimates. The net profit forecast for the same period is adjusted to $43 million, $6.8 million, and $10.8 million, respectively [3][23]. - The company confirmed a net profit of $455 million in the first half of 2025, a significant increase of 1649.8%, primarily due to sales revenue from core products and the sale of assets [11]. Clinical Development and Pipeline - The company is advancing its clinical development, with savolitinib receiving approval for new indications and expected to participate in this year's medical insurance negotiations. The global registration clinical study SAFFRON is anticipated to complete patient recruitment in the second half of the year [2][18]. - The ATTC platform is positioned to generate innovative molecules that could lead to collaboration and licensing opportunities, enhancing the company's pipeline [2][21]. Financial Metrics - The company reported a decrease in R&D expenses to $72 million (-24.2%) and a reduction in sales and administrative expenses to $42 million (-28.0%), reflecting effective cost control measures [11][24]. - The financial outlook includes a projected EBIT margin improvement, with net profit margins expected to fluctuate significantly over the forecast period [4][24].

Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the revenue forecast for Hutchison China MediTech (00013) for 2025 by 12.4% to $594 million, and the net profit forecast for 2026 by 65% to $35 million, while maintaining the 2025 net profit forecast at $366 million due to the timing of equity sale gains. The target price remains at HKD 30, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current stock price [1]. Group 1 - The company's 1H25 performance was below expectations, with revenue of $278 million, down 9% year-on-year, primarily due to lower domestic product sales. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $455 million, mainly due to gains from the sale of non-core business equity. The comprehensive revenue from the oncology immunotherapy business in 1H25 was $144 million, down 15% year-on-year, leading to a downward revision of the full-year revenue guidance from $350-450 million to $270-350 million [2]. Group 2 - The overseas sales of furmonertinib reached $163 million in 1H25, up 25% year-on-year, showing steady growth. The drug has been approved for sale in over 30 countries and regions, expanding insurance reimbursement coverage and increasing market share. However, domestic sales of furmonertinib, savolitinib, and surufatinib declined year-on-year due to sales structure adjustments and changes in the competitive landscape. The company expects improved sales trends in the second half of the year due to new indications for savolitinib and successful overseas sales of furmonertinib [3]. Group 3 - The antibody-drug conjugate (ATTC) candidate HMPL-A251 is expected to enter clinical trials in the second half of 2025, having shown good proof of concept in preclinical models. The company plans to initiate Phase 1 clinical studies in China and the U.S. in 2H25, with two other candidates, HMPL-A580 and HMPL-A830, set to start Phase 1 clinical studies in 2026. Attention is recommended for the clinical validation of this next-generation technology platform [4]. Group 4 - The company anticipates completing the enrollment for savolitinib SAFFRON in 2H25, with data readout expected in 1H26. The SANOVO enrollment is also expected to be completed in 2H25. The application for the re-submission of surufatinib in China is planned for 1H26, and the data for surufatinib in first-line pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is expected to be read out in 2H25 [5].

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that loan demand is expected to decline in July, while social financing growth is projected to remain stable [1][22] - The ECI supply index is at 50.06%, showing a slight decrease, while the demand index is at 49.90%, indicating a contraction in both supply and demand [22] - The report highlights a potential rebound in CPI due to rising commodity prices, which may affect market expectations for interest rate cuts in September [1][23] Industry Analysis - The report discusses historical capacity adjustment cases, emphasizing that government intervention is more effective than non-intervention in addressing capacity imbalances [2][4] - It notes that supply-demand rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment [2] - The "反内卷" policy is expected to differ from previous supply-side reforms, focusing on market-driven measures rather than administrative interventions [6][7] Company Insights - For Hehuang Pharmaceutical, the net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to $41.4 million due to asset sales, while future projections have been revised downwards due to delays in product launches [11] - For Dazhong Media, the profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, reflecting the impact of the "碰一碰" business model on profit elasticity and cost optimization [12] - For Di'er Laser, the company reported a 29.2% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025, driven by strong performance in the photovoltaic equipment sector [13][14]

Group 1: Guanggang Gas (688548.SH) - The company's Q2 2025 profitability has rebounded sequentially, with revenue of 5.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.60% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.24% [6] - The company reported a H1 2025 revenue of 11.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.56%, but a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.14% [6][7] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 256 million, 410 million, and 589 million yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 52.4, 32.7, and 22.7 times, respectively [8] Group 2: Hutchison China MediTech (0013.HK) - The company reported H1 2025 revenue of 277.7 million USD, a decrease of 9%, with the oncology/immunology business declining by 15% [10][11] - The updated revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is 605 million, 652 million, and 721 million USD, with year-on-year growth rates of -4.0%, 7.7%, and 10.7% [12] - The company has a strong cash position of 1.3645 billion USD, which supports the development of its ATTC platform, expected to contribute to revenue growth [12] Group 3: Boyuan Chemical (000683.SZ) - The company reported H1 2025 revenue of 5.916 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.31%, and a net profit of 743 million yuan, a decrease of 38.57% [14][15] - The company expects net profits of 1.48 billion, 2.006 billion, and 2.33 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.6, 10.7, and 9.3 times [16] - The Alashan natural soda project is progressing, with plans for completion by the end of 2025, which is expected to enhance production capacity [16]