随着流感高发季来临，流感药需求也出现激增。数据显示，奥司他韦、玛巴洛沙韦等流感药物销量均出现明显增长。据了解，流感流行高峰一般出现在12月 中下旬至1月初，这意味着流感药物在未来一至两个月内仍将出现较高需求。在流感药物市场，奥司他韦长期占据主导地位。不过近年来，新一代的挑战者 频现。其中，玛巴洛沙韦在上市首年就被纳入国家医保目录，实现销量爆发。此外，青峰医药、众生药业、济川药业等多家国内药企的新药密集获批，涌入 流感药这片蓝海市场，给消费者带来更多选择。 奥司他韦销量增超两倍 据中国疾病预防控制中心官网，11月以来，流感病毒检测阳性率开始上升。其中最近一周南、北方省份流感活动均出现上升。 据了解，流感主要通过打喷嚏、咳嗽等经飞沫传播，在人群密集且密闭或通风不良的室内更易传播；也可以通过接触被病毒污染的物品，经口腔、鼻腔、眼 睛等黏膜直接或间接接触而感染。临床表现常以发热、头痛、肌肉关节酸痛为起病表现，常伴有咽痛、干咳、鼻塞、流涕等症状，还可出现畏寒、寒战、乏 力等全身症状。孕妇、婴幼儿、老年人和慢性病患者等高危人群，可因肺炎等并发症或基础疾病加重发展成重症病例。流感每年呈季节性流行，目前我国流 感活动上升明显 ...

Core Insights - The flu season in the Northern Hemisphere coincides with the peak of outbound travel from China, increasing the risk of flu transmission globally [1][6] - The flu virus can lead to severe health complications, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, pregnant women, and those with underlying health conditions [6][8] - The market for flu medications is becoming increasingly competitive, with multiple drugs approved for use in China, particularly after the expiration of the patent for Oseltamivir in 2016 [2][11] Market Demand - The annual flu season can result in up to 650,000 deaths globally, with an estimated 1 billion cases of seasonal flu each year [6][12] - The demand for flu medications is expected to grow, with the Chinese market for anti-flu drugs reaching 10.74 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 197.51% [13] - Projections indicate that the market size for anti-flu medications in China could reach 26.9 billion yuan by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.2% from 2024 to 2028 [13] Competitive Landscape - The approval of various flu medications has intensified competition in the market, with nearly 140 product approvals for Oseltamivir alone in China [2][11] - New entrants like Baloxavir marboxil have gained market share, with sales reaching 1.5 billion yuan by 2024, following its approval in 2021 [12][13] - The market is expected to undergo further transformation as new products are approved and potentially included in national insurance schemes, enhancing their market presence [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing risk of influenza transmission due to the overlap of the flu season and the peak of outbound travel from China, highlighting the importance of antiviral treatments and the competitive landscape of flu medications in the market [4][8][10]. Group 1: Influenza Overview - Influenza is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by influenza viruses, with seasonal outbreaks primarily occurring from October to February in the Northern Hemisphere [4]. - The high season for influenza coincides with the peak of outbound travel from China, raising public health concerns [4][8]. Group 2: Antiviral Treatments - Early antiviral treatment is crucial for influenza cases with severe risk factors, with the greatest benefit seen when treatment is initiated within 48 hours of symptom onset [4][10]. - The main antiviral drugs available in China include neuraminidase inhibitors, RNA polymerase inhibitors, and hemagglutinin inhibitors, with Oseltamivir and Baloxavir Marboxil being the preferred options [5][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market for influenza medications has become highly competitive, especially after the patent expiration of Oseltamivir in 2016, leading to a surge in generic versions [5][13]. - As of November 2023, there are nearly 140 drug approvals related to Oseltamivir in China, indicating a crowded market [13]. - Baloxavir Marboxil, a second-generation antiviral, has gained market share since its approval in 2021, with sales expected to exceed 1.5 billion yuan by 2024 [13][14]. Group 4: Market Growth Potential - The Chinese market for antiviral medications for influenza was valued at 10.74 billion yuan in 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of 197.51% [14]. - Forecasts suggest a compound annual growth rate of 20.2% from 2024 to 2028, with the market potentially reaching 26.9 billion yuan by 2028 [14].