Overview - The demand for antiviral drugs in China is significantly influenced by the number of influenza cases, with the market size reaching 11 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 150% [1][7] - In 2024, the market size is expected to decrease to 8 billion yuan due to a reduction in influenza cases, with oseltamivir accounting for approximately 78% of the market [1][7] Industry Chain - The upstream of the antiviral drug industry includes suppliers of raw materials such as chemical APIs, traditional Chinese medicine materials, and packaging materials, while the midstream consists of antiviral drug manufacturers, and the downstream includes medical institutions, pharmacies, and e-commerce platforms [4] Development Background - The large population base in China leads to a high susceptibility to influenza, with an estimated 8.59 million cases and 19 deaths in 2024, driving demand for antiviral drugs, especially among the elderly [6][7] - Increased health awareness among the public has led to a greater willingness to purchase antiviral medications during flu season [6] Current Market Situation - The antiviral drug market in China is heavily influenced by influenza case numbers, with a significant expansion in 2023 due to a broader and longer-lasting influenza outbreak compared to pre-COVID-19 times [1][7] - The market is projected to contract in 2024 as influenza cases decline [1][7] Competitive Landscape - The antiviral drug market is currently dominated by neuraminidase inhibitors, with oseltamivir being the primary product, facing increasing competition from generic versions after its patent expired [8][9] - As of August 2025, there are 118 approved oseltamivir products from 69 companies, indicating a highly competitive environment [9] Key Companies - **East Sunshine Pharmaceutical**: Holds a 64.8% market share in the oseltamivir market and a 50.5% share in the overall antiviral market, with a revenue of 4.019 billion yuan in 2024 [10] - **Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group**: Focuses on innovative drugs and reported a revenue of 29.01 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 69.97% [11] Development Trends - The rapid mutation of influenza viruses is driving research towards more effective antiviral drugs with lower resistance rates, particularly RNA polymerase inhibitors [11] - The emergence of innovative domestic drugs is expected to enhance China's position in the global antiviral market, with potential for international expansion of products with independent intellectual property rights [11]

Core Viewpoint - The market for antiviral drugs, particularly oseltamivir, is undergoing significant changes due to price adjustments, increased competition from generics, and the emergence of new drugs, leading to a potential reshaping of the industry landscape [1][3][12]. Price Adjustments and Market Dynamics - Zhejiang Province's medical insurance bureau has announced price adjustments for oseltamivir capsules, affecting several manufacturers, including East Sunshine Pharmaceutical [1][4]. - Prior to the collective procurement, oseltamivir capsules were priced over 100 yuan, but the minimum winning price in the seventh national procurement was less than 1 yuan per capsule, representing a 92% reduction from the highest bid [1][5]. - The domestic flu drug market exceeded 10 billion yuan in 2023, with oseltamivir holding over 80% market share, but this is threatened by the rapid growth of Roche's baloxavir marboxil, which saw sales increase from 70 million yuan in 2022 to 630 million yuan in 2023 [2][5]. Competitive Landscape - East Sunshine Pharmaceutical's market share for oseltamivir has dropped to 54.8% as of 2024, facing competition from over 70 other pharmaceutical companies producing generic versions [2][6]. - The company’s sales from oseltamivir products accounted for 81.2%, 86.9%, and 64.2% of total revenue from 2022 to 2024, indicating a significant reliance on this product line [7]. - The expiration of key patents for oseltamivir will intensify competition, with the last synthesis process patent expiring in March 2024 [5][6]. New Drug Developments - The introduction of new antiviral drugs, such as baloxavir marboxil and PB2-targeting drug, has the potential to disrupt the existing market, particularly with baloxavir's pediatric formulation targeting children aged 5 to 12 [8][10]. - The increasing resistance rates of flu viruses to existing treatments, including oseltamivir, highlight the urgent need for new drug development [10][11]. - The approval of multiple new antiviral drugs in China and the U.S. indicates a growing focus on innovative treatments to address flu virus mutations and resistance issues [9][10]. Future Outlook - The ongoing shifts in the antiviral drug market, driven by pricing pressures, patent expirations, and the introduction of new therapies, suggest that companies like East Sunshine Pharmaceutical may need to diversify their product offerings to sustain growth [7][12]. - The competitive landscape is expected to evolve rapidly, with both domestic and international players vying for market share in the antiviral segment [12].

Core Viewpoint - The approval of ZHONGSHENG Pharmaceutical's Angladiwe Tablets by the National Medical Products Administration marks a significant advancement in the treatment of influenza, being the first RNA polymerase PB2 protein inhibitor globally [1] Company Summary - ZHONGSHENG Pharmaceutical (002317) announced the approval of Angladiwe Tablets on May 22, 2025, for the treatment of adult uncomplicated influenza A patients [1] - Angladiwe Tablets are the only antiviral drug in China that has undergone head-to-head Phase III clinical trials against Oseltamivir and received market approval [1] Clinical Trial Results - Phase III clinical trial results indicated that Angladiwe Tablets significantly outperformed the placebo group in seven primary endpoints related to the relief of influenza symptoms, achieving statistical significance [1] - The Angladiwe group demonstrated a nearly 10% reduction in median time to alleviation of total symptoms (TTAS) and fever relief compared to the Oseltamivir group [1]