Overview - The demand for antiviral drugs in China is significantly influenced by the number of influenza cases, with the market size reaching 11 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 150% [1][7] - In 2024, the market size is expected to decrease to 8 billion yuan due to a reduction in influenza cases, with oseltamivir accounting for approximately 78% of the market [1][7] Industry Chain - The upstream of the antiviral drug industry includes suppliers of raw materials such as chemical APIs, traditional Chinese medicine materials, and packaging materials, while the midstream consists of antiviral drug manufacturers, and the downstream includes medical institutions, pharmacies, and e-commerce platforms [4] Development Background - The large population base in China leads to a high susceptibility to influenza, with an estimated 8.59 million cases and 19 deaths in 2024, driving demand for antiviral drugs, especially among the elderly [6][7] - Increased health awareness among the public has led to a greater willingness to purchase antiviral medications during flu season [6] Current Market Situation - The antiviral drug market in China is heavily influenced by influenza case numbers, with a significant expansion in 2023 due to a broader and longer-lasting influenza outbreak compared to pre-COVID-19 times [1][7] - The market is projected to contract in 2024 as influenza cases decline [1][7] Competitive Landscape - The antiviral drug market is currently dominated by neuraminidase inhibitors, with oseltamivir being the primary product, facing increasing competition from generic versions after its patent expired [8][9] - As of August 2025, there are 118 approved oseltamivir products from 69 companies, indicating a highly competitive environment [9] Key Companies - **East Sunshine Pharmaceutical**: Holds a 64.8% market share in the oseltamivir market and a 50.5% share in the overall antiviral market, with a revenue of 4.019 billion yuan in 2024 [10] - **Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group**: Focuses on innovative drugs and reported a revenue of 29.01 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 69.97% [11] Development Trends - The rapid mutation of influenza viruses is driving research towards more effective antiviral drugs with lower resistance rates, particularly RNA polymerase inhibitors [11] - The emergence of innovative domestic drugs is expected to enhance China's position in the global antiviral market, with potential for international expansion of products with independent intellectual property rights [11]