本文字数：1352，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 林志吟 2025.11. 27 近日，在国家卫生健康委召开的新闻发布会上，中国疾病预防控制中心研究员彭质斌表示，从他们发 布的监测结果里，5～14岁的病例组流感病毒检测阳性率是比其他年龄组显著要高的。 根据文献资料，每年流感流行季节，儿童流感罹患率约为20%～30%，某些高流行季节年感染率可高 达50%。 河南省儿童医院南院区急诊科、急诊综合病房学科主任宋春兰接受第一财经记者采访时表示，儿童既 是流感的高危人群，也是流感重症的高危人群。 "虽然全人群普遍对流感易感，但由于儿童免疫系统尚未发育成熟，其感染流感的风险高于成人，罹 患率也相对较高。"宋春兰表示，相较于成人，儿童感染后更容易发展为重症，尤其是一些特定高风 险儿童，包括：年龄小于5岁（特别是2岁以下）、早产儿，以及患有基础疾病者，如神经系统疾病 （神经发育异常、神经肌肉疾病等）、呼吸系统疾病（如哮喘）、心血管疾病（如先天性心脏病）、 染色体或基因缺陷病、肿瘤、糖尿病、镰状细胞病、营养不良、肥胖，以及正在接受化疗或免疫抑制 治疗的患儿。原发性或继发性免疫缺陷的儿童感染后发生重症甚至死亡的风险更高 ...

儿童流感常合并多系统并发症，其中以肺炎最为常见；其次是神经系统并发症，如癫痫、流感相关性脑 炎/脑病，尤其是急性坏死性脑病，病死率高达30%至75%；此外，还可能并发肌肉骨骼系统损害（如急 性肌炎、横纹肌溶解）、心血管系统并发症（如心肌炎、心包炎）、耳鼻喉并发症（如中耳炎，发生率 约为10%至50%），以及其他系统损害，如肝肾功能异常等。 "儿童感染流感后排毒时间通常更长，患者在症状出现前24–48小时即可排毒，发病后24小时内达到高 峰。成人和较大儿童一般持续排毒3–8天（平均5天），而低龄儿童的排毒时间更长，婴幼儿长期排毒 （可达1–3周）较为常见。加之在流感流行季节，儿童的感染率和发病率通常最高，使其成为流感传播 的重要传染源，容易将病毒带入家庭、托幼机构、学校和社区，基于学校的聚集性疫情往往早于并加剧 社区传播。"宋春兰说。 婴幼儿长期排毒（可达1–3周）较为常见。 近日，在国家卫生健康委召开的新闻发布会上，中国疾病预防控制中心研究员彭质斌表示，从他们发布 的监测结果里，5～14岁的病例组流感病毒检测阳性率是比其他年龄组显著要高的。 根据文献资料，每年流感流行季节，儿童流感罹患率约为20%～30%，某 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the flu season in China may arrive earlier this year, with different circulating strains compared to last year, indicating a potential increase in demand for antiviral medications and vaccines related to respiratory diseases [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the market for respiratory disease medications, particularly antiviral drugs and flu vaccines, due to the anticipated rise in flu cases [5][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, particularly in the context of respiratory diseases and flu medications [1] Market Trends - The flu season is expected to start earlier this year, with the predominant strain being H3N2, which may lead to lower immunity in the population compared to last year [4] - The report notes that acute respiratory infections pose a significant health risk, especially with the changing virus strains [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in respiratory disease medications such as Teva Pharmaceutical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, Yiling Pharmaceutical, and others [6] - It also recommends paying attention to flu vaccine manufacturers like Hualan Biological Engineering and Baike Biological [6]

Overview - The demand for antiviral drugs in China is significantly influenced by the number of influenza cases, with the market size reaching 11 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 150% [1][7] - In 2024, the market size is expected to decrease to 8 billion yuan due to a reduction in influenza cases, with oseltamivir accounting for approximately 78% of the market [1][7] Industry Chain - The upstream of the antiviral drug industry includes suppliers of raw materials such as chemical APIs, traditional Chinese medicine materials, and packaging materials, while the midstream consists of antiviral drug manufacturers, and the downstream includes medical institutions, pharmacies, and e-commerce platforms [4] Development Background - The large population base in China leads to a high susceptibility to influenza, with an estimated 8.59 million cases and 19 deaths in 2024, driving demand for antiviral drugs, especially among the elderly [6][7] - Increased health awareness among the public has led to a greater willingness to purchase antiviral medications during flu season [6] Current Market Situation - The antiviral drug market in China is heavily influenced by influenza case numbers, with a significant expansion in 2023 due to a broader and longer-lasting influenza outbreak compared to pre-COVID-19 times [1][7] - The market is projected to contract in 2024 as influenza cases decline [1][7] Competitive Landscape - The antiviral drug market is currently dominated by neuraminidase inhibitors, with oseltamivir being the primary product, facing increasing competition from generic versions after its patent expired [8][9] - As of August 2025, there are 118 approved oseltamivir products from 69 companies, indicating a highly competitive environment [9] Key Companies - **East Sunshine Pharmaceutical**: Holds a 64.8% market share in the oseltamivir market and a 50.5% share in the overall antiviral market, with a revenue of 4.019 billion yuan in 2024 [10] - **Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group**: Focuses on innovative drugs and reported a revenue of 29.01 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross profit margin of 69.97% [11] Development Trends - The rapid mutation of influenza viruses is driving research towards more effective antiviral drugs with lower resistance rates, particularly RNA polymerase inhibitors [11] - The emergence of innovative domestic drugs is expected to enhance China's position in the global antiviral market, with potential for international expansion of products with independent intellectual property rights [11]