Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report comprehensively presents macro - data, commodity investment information, financial news, and stock market news. It shows that the economy has various trends, such as stable growth in some industries and potential fluctuations in the financial and commodity markets due to factors like policy changes and international trade situations. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 was up 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year [1]. - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.5%, up from 50.3% in the previous month [1]. - In May 2025, social financing scale increment, M1, M2, financial institution RMB loans, and social consumer goods retail total had different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. CPI and PPI were down year - on - year, and export and import values also changed [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - DCE announced the listing benchmark prices of pure benzene futures contracts, all at 5900 yuan/ton [2]. - SHFE solicited market opinions on fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp option contracts, advancing the listing preparation [2]. - Trump threatened to impose a 10% new tariff on BRICS countries and issued tariff threats to 14 countries with different rates effective on August 1 [2][3]. Metals - China's gold reserves reached 7390 million ounces at the end of June, up 7 million ounces month - on - month, with 8 - month consecutive increases [4]. - On July 4, LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin, and nickel inventories had different changes [5]. - Speculators' net long positions in COMEX gold increased by 6,213 contracts in the week ending July 1 [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In the first five months, China's steel industry was stable, with steel output up 5.2% year - on - year, and cold - rolled sheet output in auto and home appliance manufacturing up 6.9% [6]. - In the first five months, China's coal production reached a record high, while coal imports decreased by 7.9% [6]. - Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Trafigura sought government aid to maintain Australian smelters [6]. - Malaysia imposed anti - dumping duties on some steel imports from South Korea and Vietnam [6]. - As of late June, the price of rebar hit a record low [6]. Energy and Chemicals - From June 30 to July 6, China's LNG imports were about 870,000 tons, down from the previous value [7]. - Wuhan released a plan to develop the hydrogen energy industry [7][8]. - Russia's crude oil production in June was below OPEC +'s target [9]. - Libya's oil revenue in H1 2025 reached 51.1 billion Libyan dinars [10]. - ADNOC set the official selling price of Murban crude oil in August at $69.81 per barrel [10]. - OPEC + planned to approve a new round of significant production increases in September [10]. - Speculators' net long positions in NYMEX crude oil increased by 13,541 contracts in the week ending July 1 [10]. - HSBC predicted a downward risk to the Q4 2025 Brent crude oil average price [10]. Agricultural Products - On July 7, the average price of live pigs dropped, and it was likely to continue falling on July 8 [11]. - An exporter sold 135,000 tons of corn to Mexico [11]. - An Indonesian association would buy about 800,000 tons of US wheat in the rest of 2025 [11]. - Cote d'Ivoire's cocoa processing enterprises reduced grinding capacity due to high cocoa bean prices [12]. - Russia's grain output was not affected by drought in Rostov, and the 2025 output forecast was 135 million tons [12]. - Serbia's crops might be severely affected by extreme heat [13]. Financial News Open Market - On July 7, the central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan [14]. Key News - Trump's tariff threats and China's response [15]. - China's gold reserves increased for the 8th consecutive month, and foreign exchange reserves were stable [15]. - The National People's Congress launched an enforcement inspection of the Circular Economy Promotion Law [16]. - The Ministry of Finance planned to issue special and savings bonds [16]. - The first 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were over - subscribed on the first day [16]. - Longfor's domestic bond restructuring made progress [17]. - About 200 small and medium - sized banks were approved for merger or dissolution [17]. - Ningyin Consumer Finance planned to issue 1 billion yuan of financial bonds [17]. - Japanese and US Treasury bond yields changed [18]. - Goldman Sachs predicted the Fed might cut interest rates in September [18]. - There were various bond - related events such as debt defaults, corporate governance changes, and bond redemptions [19]. - There were overseas credit rating changes [20]. Bond Market - China's bond market had narrow fluctuations, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract fell 0.04% [21]. - Some exchange - traded bonds rose or fell, and related bond indices had different performances [22]. - The convertible bond index fell, with some bonds rising and others falling [22]. - Money market rates had different trends [23]. - Shibor short - end rates mostly declined [23]. - Bank - to - bank repurchase rates had different trends [24]. - The winning yields of some policy - bank bonds were announced [24]. - European and US bond yields rose [25]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell, and the central parity rate rose [26]. - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [26]. Research Report Highlights - Different research institutions had views on the bond market, including expectations of continued loose funds, potential market fluctuations, and investment strategies [27][28]. Today's Reminder - On July 8, many bonds were to be listed, issued, have payments made, or have principal and interest repaid [29]. Stock Market - On Monday, A - share indices had different performances, with some sectors rising and others falling, and the market turnover was 1.23 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose, with significant south - bound capital inflows [31]. - Stock exchanges would release specialized and innovative indices on July 21 [31]. - The three major stock exchanges implemented new quantitative trading rules, which would impact some strategies [31]. - Many fund products showed signs of portfolio adjustment, and the "discount investment" private placement business was heating up [32]. - Jiangsu Runyang set a new A - share listing schedule [33]. - Lens Technology set its IPO price in Hong Kong and would be listed on July 9 [33].