Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term, but there is no obvious driving force in the medium - term logic. Conservative investors are advised to consider partial hedging at high prices for near - month contracts. The oil market is expected to be weakly volatile under the short - term expectation of loose supply and demand. Pre - holiday stockpiling is recommended to replenish inventory appropriately at low prices, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biofuel policy. [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - China purchased at least 8 million tons of US soybeans in 2025, approaching the 12 - million - ton procurement target. The uncertainty of the subsequent procurement rhythm due to the lack of a formal trade agreement between China and the US is regarded as an important factor suppressing soybean prices. [1] - In November 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (221 million bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons (236 million bushels) in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons (210 million bushels) in November last year. [1] - Near - month contracts are affected by policy rumors. Before the state reserve release, the price is expected to be strong, but the domestic short - term soybean meal spot inventory is high. Once the reserve release occurs after the holiday, the premium may quickly disappear. [1] Oils - In October, the available capacity of US renewable diesel remained stable at 4.989 billion gallons per year. The use of soybean oil as a raw material for biofuel production decreased by 47 million pounds to 1.006 billion pounds, reaching a 6 - month low. As of the end of November, the US soybean oil inventory soared to 2.164 billion pounds, an 18 - month high. [2] - Due to strong monthly production offsetting the moderate growth of exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to rise to the highest level in nearly seven years. [2] - After the holiday, the oil sector declined significantly. The reasons include the sharp increase in US soybean oil inventory, uncertainty in biofuel demand, the pressure of rising palm oil inventory, and the possibility of resuming Canadian rapeseed imports. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment is neutral, with rubber prices experiencing a decline due to increased short selling and inventory accumulation expectations, alongside government stockpiling actions that indicate a miscalculation in market expectations regarding state reserves [4][5]. Macroeconomic Analysis - Historically, preemptive interest rate cuts tend to have a positive impact on rubber prices [12]. - The analysis of past interest rate cuts shows that they often lead to price increases, with notable examples indicating a potential rise of around 60% following such cuts [13]. Inventory Insights - Although total inventory is decreasing, the rate of decline for dark rubber is slowing, suggesting a potential shift towards inventory accumulation in the future [10][25]. - The market's perception of state reserves has been inaccurate, particularly regarding the availability of all-rubber stocks, which could negatively impact lighter rubber prices [19]. Production Factors - Weather conditions in the northeastern regions are expected to improve, but overall production has not shown significant growth, with potential typhoon impacts on domestic production [5][22]. - Current all-rubber production is anticipated to remain stable or slightly decrease compared to last year [22]. Currency Impact - The Thai Baht has been appreciating, leading to increased costs for rubber production, with a reported 5% increase compared to the same period last year [29]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently focused on the potential for short selling expectations to materialize in the near term, particularly in light of government stockpiling actions [7][10]. - The difference in inventory levels between mixed and standard rubber is expected to reflect a gradual increase, with mixed rubber supplies anticipated to rise post-October [14]. Structural Changes - The RU month difference structure is undergoing changes, with a notable strengthening expected in the RU1-5 month difference as the market approaches delivery periods [18].

Core Viewpoint - Soybean meal futures experienced a decline, with the main contract opening lower and falling nearly 1% during the day [1] Group 1: Market Data - As of August 22, major oil mills in the country had an imported soybean inventory of 7.55 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons week-on-week, and 420,000 tons month-on-month, but a decrease of 240,000 tons year-on-year, which is 1.14 million tons higher than the average of the past three years [2] - The soybean meal inventory stood at 1.04 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 30,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 490,000 tons, which is 90,000 tons higher than the average for the same period over the past three years [2] - On August 25, the total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was 121,900 tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons compared to the previous trading day, with spot transactions accounting for 116,300 tons [2] - In the fourth week of August 2025, Brazil exported a total of 1.5203 million tons of soybean meal, down from 2.1327 million tons in August of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1.99% compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - According to Jiaozi Futures, a reduction in planting area has strengthened the support for U.S. soybeans at 1,000 cents, with the November contract facing short-term pressure around the 1,060 level [3] - The market is closely monitoring the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations and the State Grain Administration's plan for soybean rotation imports in the fourth quarter, with rumors of a potential release of over one million tons [3] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures reported that the good rate of U.S. soybeans is at 69%, higher than market expectations, and that the weather in soybean-producing areas is expected to have less rainfall and below-average temperatures in the next two weeks, which may impact soybean yields [3] - Domestic oil mills are operating at high levels, with a slight increase in soybean and soybean meal inventories, indicating that near-term supply remains ample [3] - Overall, the short-term outlook for soybean meal futures is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations [3]