Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment is neutral, with rubber prices experiencing a decline due to increased short selling and inventory accumulation expectations, alongside government stockpiling actions that indicate a miscalculation in market expectations regarding state reserves [4][5]. Macroeconomic Analysis - Historically, preemptive interest rate cuts tend to have a positive impact on rubber prices [12]. - The analysis of past interest rate cuts shows that they often lead to price increases, with notable examples indicating a potential rise of around 60% following such cuts [13]. Inventory Insights - Although total inventory is decreasing, the rate of decline for dark rubber is slowing, suggesting a potential shift towards inventory accumulation in the future [10][25]. - The market's perception of state reserves has been inaccurate, particularly regarding the availability of all-rubber stocks, which could negatively impact lighter rubber prices [19]. Production Factors - Weather conditions in the northeastern regions are expected to improve, but overall production has not shown significant growth, with potential typhoon impacts on domestic production [5][22]. - Current all-rubber production is anticipated to remain stable or slightly decrease compared to last year [22]. Currency Impact - The Thai Baht has been appreciating, leading to increased costs for rubber production, with a reported 5% increase compared to the same period last year [29]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently focused on the potential for short selling expectations to materialize in the near term, particularly in light of government stockpiling actions [7][10]. - The difference in inventory levels between mixed and standard rubber is expected to reflect a gradual increase, with mixed rubber supplies anticipated to rise post-October [14]. Structural Changes - The RU month difference structure is undergoing changes, with a notable strengthening expected in the RU1-5 month difference as the market approaches delivery periods [18].

Core Viewpoint - Soybean meal futures experienced a decline, with the main contract opening lower and falling nearly 1% during the day [1] Group 1: Market Data - As of August 22, major oil mills in the country had an imported soybean inventory of 7.55 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons week-on-week, and 420,000 tons month-on-month, but a decrease of 240,000 tons year-on-year, which is 1.14 million tons higher than the average of the past three years [2] - The soybean meal inventory stood at 1.04 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 30,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons, and a year-on-year decrease of 490,000 tons, which is 90,000 tons higher than the average for the same period over the past three years [2] - On August 25, the total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was 121,900 tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons compared to the previous trading day, with spot transactions accounting for 116,300 tons [2] - In the fourth week of August 2025, Brazil exported a total of 1.5203 million tons of soybean meal, down from 2.1327 million tons in August of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1.99% compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2: Institutional Insights - According to Jiaozi Futures, a reduction in planting area has strengthened the support for U.S. soybeans at 1,000 cents, with the November contract facing short-term pressure around the 1,060 level [3] - The market is closely monitoring the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations and the State Grain Administration's plan for soybean rotation imports in the fourth quarter, with rumors of a potential release of over one million tons [3] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures reported that the good rate of U.S. soybeans is at 69%, higher than market expectations, and that the weather in soybean-producing areas is expected to have less rainfall and below-average temperatures in the next two weeks, which may impact soybean yields [3] - Domestic oil mills are operating at high levels, with a slight increase in soybean and soybean meal inventories, indicating that near-term supply remains ample [3] - Overall, the short-term outlook for soybean meal futures is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations [3]