Workflow
抢出口预期
icon
Search documents
新能源及有色金属日报:宏观情绪好转,空单止盈引发盘面减仓上涨-20250515
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 05:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - On May 14, 2025, the improvement of macro - sentiment led to a short - covering rally in the lithium carbonate futures market. The downstream demand was mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term contracts, while upstream lithium salt plants had strong price - holding intentions. The US tariff policy created an expectation of rush exports for Chinese energy - storage cells, but falling ore prices and high inventories suppressed prices. Meanwhile, China's new energy vehicle exports showed significant growth in April [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - On May 14, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2507 opened at 63,860 yuan/ton and closed at 65,200 yuan/ton, up 3.0% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 377,525 lots, and the open interest was 276,956 lots, a decrease of 17,270 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 465,422 lots, a decrease of 3,011 lots, and the total trading volume increased by 198,389 lots compared to the previous day. The overall speculation degree was 1.02. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 36,716 lots, an increase of 272 lots from the previous day [1]. Spot Market - According to SMM data, on May 14, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,600 - 65,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,550 - 63,550 yuan/ton, also up 100 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate showed a slight upward trend. Downstream procurement willingness was low, mainly relying on customer - supplied and long - term contracts. Upstream lithium salt plants had strong price - holding intentions due to cost losses, and there were some transactions between traders and downstream enterprises. The US tariff policy created an expectation of rush exports for Chinese energy - storage cells, but falling ore prices and high inventories suppressed prices. In April, China's automobile exports reached 424,000 units, up 8.3% month - on - month and 1.4% year - on - year. New energy vehicle exports reached 186,000 units, up 32.6% month - on - month and 64.5% year - on - year [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, the improvement of the macro situation drives the futures price to rebound. Traders can conduct range trading, and upstream producers can sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - delivery spread: Not recommended. - Inter - commodity spread: Not recommended. - Futures - cash: Not recommended. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear - spread options [3].