投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-13 抢出口预期再起，供需改善预期推高基 本金属 有⾊观点：抢出⼝预期再起，供需改善预期推⾼基本⾦属 交易逻辑：尽管近期公布的美国经济数据偏好推高美元，但美联储独立性 受损及弱美元预期仍在；12月31日财政部确认26年第一批625亿元两新补 贴资金拨付，整体上看，宏观面预期较为稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，铜 陵有色公告米拉多铜矿二期延期；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑 较强。终端，伴随着两新支持资金到位，家电、汽车和消费电子等终端消 费或有望改善；同时，光伏组件及电池退税政策变动，抢出口预期再起， 尽管现实供需略偏弱，但供需改善预期仍在。整体来看，中短期，弱美元 预期+供应扰动担忧逻辑没变，此前高位调整幅度较大的锡锭近期供需改 善明显，这说明下游对高价的接受程度在好转，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做 多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问 题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应扰动持续增加，铜价延续⾼位运⾏。 氧化铝观点：基本⾯偏弱，氧化铝价震荡承压。 铝观点：宏观情绪乐观， ...

(责任编辑：康博) 多位机构人士表示，本轮上涨的直接催化来自出口退税政策调整引发的"抢出口"预期，叠加产业链 库存处于低位，短期对价格形成明显支撑，但在涨幅迅速扩大的背景下，后续波动风险亦不容忽视。 人民财讯1月13日电，受出口政策预期变化及供需格局改善等因素共同影响，碳酸锂期货价格大幅 上涨。1月12日，碳酸锂期货主力合约开盘即触及涨停，价格突破15万元/吨关口，创阶段新高。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - On May 14, 2025, the improvement of macro - sentiment led to a short - covering rally in the lithium carbonate futures market. The downstream demand was mainly met by customer - supplied and long - term contracts, while upstream lithium salt plants had strong price - holding intentions. The US tariff policy created an expectation of rush exports for Chinese energy - storage cells, but falling ore prices and high inventories suppressed prices. Meanwhile, China's new energy vehicle exports showed significant growth in April [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - On May 14, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2507 opened at 63,860 yuan/ton and closed at 65,200 yuan/ton, up 3.0% from the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 377,525 lots, and the open interest was 276,956 lots, a decrease of 17,270 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 465,422 lots, a decrease of 3,011 lots, and the total trading volume increased by 198,389 lots compared to the previous day. The overall speculation degree was 1.02. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 36,716 lots, an increase of 272 lots from the previous day [1]. Spot Market - According to SMM data, on May 14, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 63,600 - 65,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 62,550 - 63,550 yuan/ton, also up 100 yuan/ton. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate showed a slight upward trend. Downstream procurement willingness was low, mainly relying on customer - supplied and long - term contracts. Upstream lithium salt plants had strong price - holding intentions due to cost losses, and there were some transactions between traders and downstream enterprises. The US tariff policy created an expectation of rush exports for Chinese energy - storage cells, but falling ore prices and high inventories suppressed prices. In April, China's automobile exports reached 424,000 units, up 8.3% month - on - month and 1.4% year - on - year. New energy vehicle exports reached 186,000 units, up 32.6% month - on - month and 64.5% year - on - year [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, the improvement of the macro situation drives the futures price to rebound. Traders can conduct range trading, and upstream producers can sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - delivery spread: Not recommended. - Inter - commodity spread: Not recommended. - Futures - cash: Not recommended. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options or use bear - spread options [3].