Core Insights - The UNCTAD report highlights that global trade policy uncertainty, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and economic challenges, poses significant risks to trade-dependent economies and hampers global economic growth [1][4] - Trade policy uncertainty is deemed more damaging than tariffs, as businesses can adapt to rising costs but struggle with unpredictable policy changes [1][4] Group 1: Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty - The report identifies the United States as a key example, noting that frequent adjustments to U.S. trade policies create significant unpredictability for global trade [2] - U.S. unilateral actions, such as tariffs and sanctions, have intensified global trade policy uncertainty and provoked retaliatory measures from other countries [2] - Developing and least developed countries are particularly vulnerable to U.S. trade policy uncertainty, lacking the capacity to respond effectively, which hinders their economic and social development [2] Group 2: Recommendations for Mitigating Uncertainty - The report calls for governments, businesses, and international organizations to collaborate in enhancing global trade resilience and stability [3][4] - Governments should base policy decisions on clear economic analysis and data, providing rationale and expected impacts to improve predictability for businesses and investors [3] - International organizations like UNCTAD and WTO should promote policy coordination among countries to avoid retaliatory measures and establish frameworks to address uncertainty [3] - Countries are encouraged to adhere to regional and multilateral trade agreements to minimize policy volatility and foster a stable trading environment [3] - Businesses should enhance supply chain flexibility by diversifying suppliers, increasing inventory, and adopting various transportation methods to mitigate operational disruptions during periods of uncertainty [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is prepared to take retaliatory measures against the United States if negotiations regarding tariffs fail, aiming to rebalance bilateral trade relations [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - EU Trade and Economic Security Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis is currently negotiating with the Trump administration regarding potential tariffs on imports such as timber, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [1][3]. - The U.S. has indicated that these tariffs could affect €170 billion worth of EU goods, which represents approximately 97% of the EU's total exports to the U.S. [1]. Group 2: EU's Response Strategy - Dombrovskis stated that the proposed import taxes lack justification and would harm economies on both sides of the Atlantic, emphasizing that the current situation is unacceptable [3]. - In the event of failed negotiations, the EU is accelerating efforts to diversify its trade and investment relationships with other global partners to mitigate the impact of escalating trade tensions with the U.S. [3]. Group 3: Future Proposals and Actions - The EU is expected to submit a document to the U.S. aimed at restarting negotiations, which may include proposals to lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers, increase European investments in the U.S., and enhance cooperation on strategic challenges [3]. - Following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by President Trump, the EU proposed mutual elimination of tariffs on all industrial products, which was rejected by Trump [3].