Group 1 - International oil prices surged suddenly on the night of October 22, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 3.74% and Brent crude oil futures increasing by 4.94% [1] - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF (159518) experienced a cumulative increase of 12.37% over the past six months as of October 22, 2025 [1] - The trading volume of the S&P Oil & Gas ETF was active, with a turnover rate of 15.22% and a transaction value of 171 million yuan [4] Group 2 - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF reached a new high in shares at 1.266 billion, marking the highest since its inception [4] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 10 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 70.9246 million yuan, totaling 443 million yuan [4] - The ETF's net value increased by 13.34% over the past six months as of October 21, 2025 [4] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the upcoming winter is expected to be colder than usual due to the dissipation of the effects of previous warm winters caused by the El Niño phenomenon [4] - There is a potential for natural gas shortages in China after five years, should La Niña signals continue to strengthen [4] - According to Guotai Junan, international oil prices are expected to fluctuate upwards due to regional risk premiums and potential new restrictions on Russia by the EU, along with anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the upcoming winter is expected to be colder than usual due to the dissipation of the effects from previous warm winters caused by the El Niño phenomenon, alongside strengthening La Niña signals [1] Group 1: Natural Gas Market Outlook - The anticipated colder winter may lead to a potential natural gas shortage, resulting in a surge in natural gas consumption and an increase in both wholesale and retail prices [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will remain the preferred investment target for natural gas in China due to reforms in wholesale natural gas pricing, decreasing import costs, retail participation, and structural demand growth [1] - The company's natural gas business, which includes exploration and production, distribution, and pipelines, is viewed positively by Morgan Stanley [1]