10月22日深夜，国际油价突然大涨，WTI原油期货和布伦特原油期货均涨超4%。截至收盘，WTI原油期货上涨3.74%，布伦特原油期货上涨4.94%。 场内ETF方面，截至2025年10月23日 10:08，标普油气ETF(159518)下修调整。拉长时间看，截至2025年10月22日，标普油气ETF近半年累计上涨12.37%。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 流动性方面，标普油气ETF盘中换手15.22%，成交1.71亿元，市场交投活跃。份额方面，标普油气ETF最新份额达12.66亿份，创成立以来新高。从资金净流 入方面来看，标普油气ETF近10天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得7092.46万元净流入，合计"吸金"4.43亿元。 截至10月21日，标普油气ETF近6月净值上涨13.34%。从收益能力看，截至2025年10月21日，标普油气ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为12.05%，最长连涨 月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为18.48%，上涨月份平均收益率为4.33%。 摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，随着冬季即将来临，由厄尔尼诺现象造成的上两个暖冬影响已消退，因此即将到来的冬 ...

计短期企业装置运行平稳为主。ru2601合约短线预计在14700-15400区间波动，nr2512合约短线预计在120 免责声明 00-12600区间波动。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15245 | 95 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12430 | 80 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -55 | -60 20号胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 10 | -5 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2815 | 15 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 148828 | -1539 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 61890 | -1523 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -25462 | -20 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11411 | -89 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 127210 | -530 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全 ...

科学家特别强调，2024年厄尔尼诺现象不仅推升全球气温，更通过引发亚马孙等关键区域的高温、 干旱与火灾，严重削弱生态系统的固碳能力。研究显示，2024年热带森林损失量达2023年的两倍，这一 数据令人警醒。 世界气象组织警告，过量二氧化碳将在未来数百年持续对地球产生增温效应。温室气体捕获的热量 正不断加剧全球气候系统失衡，将引发更频繁的极端天气事件。 据英国《新科学家》杂志网站日前报道，世界气象组织最新报告显示，2024年全球大气二氧化碳平 均浓度较2023年激增3.5ppm，达到423.9ppm，刷新了历史纪录。 世界气象组织表示，最新数据印证了大气二氧化碳浓度年增速持续加快的态势。自20世纪60年代至 今，其增长率已翻了两番。地球二氧化碳上次出现类似浓度，还要追溯到300万至500万年前，那时人类 尚未登上历史舞台。 报告分析认为，化石燃料持续排放、野火肆虐释放大量二氧化碳，以及全球陆地与海洋碳吸收能力 减弱，是导致去年浓度骤增的三大主因。英国利兹大学学者皮尔斯·弗斯特强调，尽管国际社会持续呼 吁减排，但化石燃料排放量始终居高不下，这成为二氧化碳浓度攀升的根本症结。人类遏制化石燃料排 放的需求比以往任何时 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-10-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15150 | 0 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12350 | -15 -10 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 5 | 0 20号胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 15 | | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2800 | 15 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 150367 | -2371 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 63413 | -2767 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -25442 | -3066 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11322 | -113 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 127740 | -1340 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 42640 | 1412 | | | | 现货市场 | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 14300 | 0 上海市场越南 ...

摩根士丹利发布研报称，随着冬季即将来临，由厄尔尼诺现象造成的上两个暖冬影响已消退，因此即将到来的冬天预期较以往更寒冷。此外，若拉尼娜信号（代表更冷的气候）持续增强，中国可 大摩相信，中石油将仍是中国首选的天然气投资标的，因其批发端的天然气定价改革、进口成本下降、零售的参与以及结构性需求增长。大摩将公司的天然气业务（勘探与生产、分销和管道）视 大摩续指，拉尼娜信号似乎正在增强，如果真的出现，今个冬季可能变得更为寒冷，从而导致潜在的天然气短缺。因此，天然气消费可能激增，批发和零售价格或上涨。今年冬季的天然气需求增 责任编辑：史丽君 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15150 | 340 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12365 | 185 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 5 | 10 20号胶12-1价差(日,元/吨) | 25 | -5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2785 | 155 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 152738 | 4378 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 66180 | 3153 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -22376 | 5484 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11209 | -610 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 129080 | -2720 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 41228 | 0 0 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | | | | 现货市场 | | | | | | | | 泰标STR20(日 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port is in a destocking trend, with both bonded and general trade warehouses reducing inventory, and the destocking amplitude of the general trade warehouse exceeding expectations [2]. - After the holiday, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has recovered, driving a significant increase in the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The提货 volume of the downstream general trade warehouse has increased significantly. Coupled with the decline in rubber prices, the downstream replenishment sentiment has improved, and the overall出库 volume of the warehouse is greater than the inbound volume, resulting in a destocking of the total inventory [2]. - In terms of demand, enterprises that had maintenance during the holiday have resumed production as planned. Currently, the capacity utilization rate of most enterprises has returned to the pre - holiday level, driving a significant increase in the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. However, the overall market performance has not improved significantly. To control inventory growth, some enterprises are still in a state of flexible production control. It is expected that the enterprise equipment will operate stably in the short term [2]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,500 - 15,100 in the short term, and the nr2512 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,400 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 14,810 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 12,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread is - 45 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - numbered rubber is 2,630 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 148,360 lots, down 281 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is 63,027 lots, down 1,972 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 27,860 lots, down 508 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber is - 10,599 lots, down 1,637 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 131,800 tons, down 3,200 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber in the exchange are 41,228 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 510 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 145 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,028 yuan/ton, up 173 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - numbered rubber is - 1,782 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 57.15 Thai baht/kg, down 0.24 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.9 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 50.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 221 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 51.6 US dollars/ton, down 8.4 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 113,100 tons, down 8,800 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 268,400 tons, up 8,900 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 64.52%, up 13.65 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 72.72%, up 17.46 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.95 days, up 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 45.17 days, down 0.53 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.95%, up 0.45 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.23%, down 0.49 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.55%, up 0.57 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.54%, up 0.54 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From October 19th to October 25th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly concentrated in Vietnam and southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas is low, which has less impact on rubber tapping. The red areas south of the equator are mainly distributed in Indonesia and eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has an increased impact on rubber tapping [2]. - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, and the El Niño phenomenon weakened month - on - month. Attention should be paid to its subsequent development [2]. - As of October 19th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 4.07%. The bonded area inventory was 69,600 tons, a decrease of 1.70%; the general trade inventory was 367,900 tons, a decrease of 4.51% [2]. - As of October 16th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.07%, a month - on - month increase of 28.92 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.57 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.96%, a month - on - month increase of 22.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.98 percentage points [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 14895 0 | 50 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -15 20号胶11-12价差(日,元/吨) | 12195 40 | 205 20 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2660 | -195 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 149446 | -384 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 22169 | -5323 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -25886 | 899 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -12440 | -1940 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 139560 | -860 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 39917 14250 | -1512 0 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 14950 | 0 | | | 泰标STR20(日,美元/吨) | 1820 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-10-14 ，装置产能将逐步释放，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率预计将明显走高。ru2601合约短线预计在14750-154 00区间波动，nr2512合约短线预计在11850-12350区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 数据指标 | 项目类别 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | | 14845 | -95 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 11990 | -50 | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 期货市场 | 15 | 0 20号胶11-12 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15415 | 385 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12465 | 365 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 60 | 60 20号胶11-12价差(日,元/吨) | 10 | 10 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2950 | 20 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 140720 | -378 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 34149 | -52 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -22185 | 3236 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11125 | -482 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 145390 | -4420 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 41632 | -402 | | | | 现货市场 | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 14650 | 350 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 15250 ...