Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The transmission of the oil price shock to the oilseeds and oils industry is not linear. The limited exposure and transmission blockage at the macro level, along with high inventory, weak demand, and corporate caution at the industrial level, together form a buffer zone for the Chinese economy. Short - term market sentiment dominates, but in the medium and long term, the market will return to the fundamentals [4][5][33]. - The current market pricing of oilseeds and oils has deviated from the fundamentals, with short - term sentiment taking the lead, and there is an obvious sentiment of waiting for price corrections to buy [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Background and Purpose - In March 2026, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict led to a significant increase in international oil prices, causing violent fluctuations in the oilseeds and oils futures market. The report aimed to explore the real transmission path of the macro - shock to the industrial end by conducting a five - day industrial research on various industrial chain entities from March 23rd to 27th [6]. 3.2 Core Findings of Industrial Research - **Core Conclusion: Macro - sentiment Dominance and "Ineffectiveness" of Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The current market pricing has deviated from the fundamentals, and prices are mainly influenced by macro - factors such as crude oil and international conflicts. There is a clear sentiment of waiting for price corrections to buy, and there is also a phenomenon of variety differentiation [7]. - **Industrial Transmission Path of Macro - shock**: - **Logistics Cost Increase**: International tensions increased shipping costs, with container freight rising by about $500 per container (equivalent to about $50 per ton) after the conflict. Domestic road freight is also likely to increase [7][9]. - **Market Sentiment Amplification**: The sharp rise in crude oil prices drove the price of palm oil up first. The market generally adopted a strategy of buying on price corrections, and macro funds were pre - arranged [9]. - **Limited Impact on Direct Raw Material Supply**: The actual impact on agricultural products was weaker than the market sentiment hype. The extended customs inspection period has become a normal state, and enterprises have adapted to it [9]. - **"Triple Blockages" in Cost Transmission**: - **Inventory Blockage**: High inventory in the intermediate links, with multiple varieties at or above the same - period high levels, suppressed price increases [10]. - **Rigid Demand Blockage**: Downstream demand was rigid, with low price elasticity. Terminal consumption was compressed to the "pure rigid demand" level, and the price transmission cycle was long [11][12]. - **Wait - and - see Blockage**: The uncertainty of macro - events weakened corporate confidence, and enterprises were more inclined to wait and see rather than quickly transfer cost pressures to the downstream [12]. - **Demand - side Situation**: - **Weak Domestic Consumption**: Domestic consumption of vegetable oils showed a slow downward trend due to factors such as population decline, increased health awareness, and sluggish catering consumption [14]. - **Exports as a Key Variable**: Soybean oil exports might increase this year, and the industry generally focused on the volume of exports to India [14]. - **Differences in Perception among Different Industrial Chain Links**: - **Upstream Processing Enterprises**: Customs inspection has become a normal state; there were differences in soybean inventory and April startup rates; some enterprises tried to purchase Canadian soybeans; group - level unified procurement was common [15]. - **Trading Enterprises**: Currently, basis trading was the main mode, with some risk exposure. Small - scale traders mainly used fixed - price trading [16]. - **Downstream Feed Enterprises**: Foreign enterprises entered the market, and domestic enterprises expanded overseas. Different enterprises developed different types of feed based on their advantages. There was a time - lag in price transmission from raw materials to feed [17]. - **Logistics and Warehousing Enterprises**: A logistics and warehousing enterprise had a certain proportion of oil transit volume in the country. There were differences in the release time of different imported varieties [17][18]. - **Investment Companies**: An investment company focused on both domestic and foreign futures and spot markets in oilseeds and oils, combining options and futures to manage risks [18]. - **Evolution of the Industry's "Innovative" Model**: The volatile market in recent years has led to the emergence of more unilateral traders, and the "basis - washing" model has increased industry risks, reflecting a differentiation in the industry's perception of risk [19]. 3.3 Macro Coordinates: Transmission Mechanism of Oil Price Shock in China - **Limited Exposure**: China's real vulnerability to Middle East energy shocks was overestimated. China's energy structure and inventory accumulation, along with administrative regulation of refined oil prices, provided a long - term buffer [21]. - **Transmission Blockage**: The transmission from PPI to CPI was still weak. An increase in PPI mainly affected upstream industries, and the impact on core CPI was limited and short - lived [22]. - **Policy Response**: Rising oil prices might delay the pace of monetary easing. Policy variables have become an important part of industrial expectations [23]. 3.4 Integration of Macro - analysis and Industrial Reality - **Macro - verification and Micro - manifestation of Transmission Blockage**: The weak transmission from PPI to core CPI at the macro level was directly reflected in the high - inventory buffer, downstream rigid - demand resistance, and extended transmission cycle at the industrial level [24]. - **Macro - composition and Industrial Embodiment of the Buffer Zone**: China's macro - buffer zone, composed of high inventory, administrative regulation, and price - adjustment mechanisms, was manifested in the industrial behavior of enterprises such as low inventory replenishment willingness and a shift to basis trading [25]. - **Tension between Short - term Repair and Long - term Carrying Capacity**: The short - term nominal repair in the upstream did not effectively transmit to the downstream. Prolonged shocks might lead to greater demand destruction [26][27]. - **Spill - over Effects of Fertilizer and Planting Costs**: The increase in agricultural production material prices, especially fertilizer prices, would support the long - term prices of oilseeds and oils through the planting cost channel [28]. - **Long - term Game of Weather and Biodiesel Policies**: The El Niño phenomenon and biodiesel policies in Indonesia, the US, and Brazil were important topics in the industry. The actual implementation of biodiesel policies might be weaker than expected [29]. 3.5 Summary and Outlook - **Non - linear Transmission of Oil Price Shock**: The oil price shock in China was not a single - line story. The buffer zone formed by macro and industrial factors made China's asset response more moderate than that of most Asian economies [30]. - **Return to Fundamentals in the Medium and Long Term**: Short - term nominal repair did not equal broad - based re - inflation. As the impact of geopolitical events weakened, the market would return to fundamentals [30]. - **Formation of Cost - transmission "Blockage" and Downstream Transformation**: The cost pressure in the upstream accumulated in the intermediate links, squeezing the industry's profit. The downstream food processing industry was undergoing integration and transformation [31]. - **Enterprise Risk - management Transformation**: Enterprises were shifting from "trend gambling" to "fine - grained risk management," but there were obvious differences in paths. The application of risk - management tools was gradually spreading, but there were still differences in acceptance and utilization depth [31][32]. - **Short - term and Long - term Market Game**: In the short term, the supply of soy - related products was tight in April and would ease after May, but this needed dynamic evaluation. In the long term, the core drivers were the El Niño phenomenon and the progress of biodiesel policies [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The long - term upward logic of natural rubber remains unchanged. In the second quarter, the supply - demand structure may keep it in a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, but price fluctuations may widen due to overseas macro and synthetic rubber price uncertainties [114]. - The price of synthetic rubber in the second quarter mainly depends on the overall atmosphere of the energy - chemical sector and cost - side transmission. As long as the crude oil price does not significantly decline, the BR futures price is still expected to be strong [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rubber - related Variety Disk Trends - As of March 26, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,460 yuan/ton, with a quarterly increase of 4.24%. The quarterly high was 17,600 yuan/ton, and the quarterly low was 15,525 yuan/ton [8]. - The closing price of the NR main contract was 13,635 yuan/ton, with a quarterly increase of 6.48%. The quarterly high was 14,110 yuan/ton, and the quarterly low was 12,465 yuan/ton [8]. - The closing price of the BR main contract was 17,975 yuan/ton, with a quarterly increase of 54.36%. The quarterly high was 18,265 yuan/ton, and the quarterly low was 11,420 yuan/ton [8]. Supply Situation - In the second quarter, the Yunnan, Hainan, and Vietnam rubber - producing areas will enter the new tapping season. The current phenological conditions are suitable for natural rubber raw material supply. The Thai production area will fully stop tapping from March to April and resume tapping after the Songkran Festival from late April to early May [11]. - The ENSO report indicates that the La Nina phenomenon persisted in February 2026. It is expected to transition to the ENSO neutral state next month, which will last until May - July 2026 (probability of 55%). There is a 62% probability that the El Nino phenomenon will reappear from June - August 2026 and last at least until the end of 2026. El Nino may affect rubber production in Southeast Asia [18]. - ANRPC's January 2026 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2026 will increase by 2.2% year - on - year to 15.324 billion tons, with different growth or decline rates in each country [31]. Demand Situation - ANRPC's January 2026 report predicts that the global natural rubber consumption in 2026 will increase by 1.4% year - on - year to 15.602 billion tons, with different growth or decline rates in each country [41]. - From January - February 2026, China's automobile production and sales decreased year - on - year, but the export continued to grow strongly. The cumulative export volume was 1.55 million vehicles, a 61% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [62]. - From January - February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 730,100 tons, a 13.07% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 543,200 tons, an 8.42% year - on - year increase [70][71]. Inventory Situation - The domestic natural rubber inventory shows signs of a turning point, and it is expected to enter the seasonal de - stocking period in the second quarter. The current high inventory level makes the de - stocking speed an important leading indicator for judging supply - demand changes [113]. - The synthetic rubber inventory is at a relatively high historical level, but due to the tightening supply, the inventory digestion speed is expected to accelerate [116]. Cost and Profit Situation - The high cost of synthetic rubber may lead to continued significant losses, which will cause the operating rate of synthetic rubber enterprises to decline passively [115]. - The cost of raw materials and the de - stocking situation will affect the cost - profit performance of rubber products [113][116]. Strategy Suggestions - For natural rubber futures, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish, open positions close to technical supports, and pay attention to position management. Enterprises should control hedging positions [114]. - For synthetic rubber futures, it is recommended to view them as strong as long as the crude oil price does not significantly decline [116]. - For rubber options, consider constructing a bull spread portfolio for RU and focus on protective strategies for BR. For arbitrage, maintain the reverse arbitrage idea for RU and NR and temporarily wait and see for inter - monthly arbitrage [119].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is complex and uncertain, which has a significant impact on various commodity markets. The short - term price fluctuations of many commodities are large, and the long - term trend depends on the development of the Middle East situation, especially the situation of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - The market sentiment is highly sensitive to the information related to the US - Iran war, which affects the prices of precious metals, copper, aluminum and other commodities. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Crude Oil - Iran proposed cease - fire conditions, and Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days, providing a cooling - off window for the Middle East situation. However, the US is still deploying troops, and Iran continues to attack US military bases. The short - term oil price has a large two - way fluctuation risk, and the long - term trend depends on the smooth passage of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The US - Iran negotiation has great differences, providing some support to the market. The actual passage volume in the Strait of Hormuz is extremely limited, and the supply gap in the Middle East is difficult to fill in the short term. The shortage of LNG may increase the demand for fuel oil substitution. Low - sulfur fuel oil has component support. Geopolitics will form a lower support for fuel oil [21]. Natural Gas No relevant information provided. Coal Coke - The coking profit is average, and the daily output slightly increases. The coke inventory changes little, and the purchasing intention of traders slightly improves. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream molten iron production increases significantly. The coke price is likely to rise rather than fall due to energy concerns caused by geopolitical conflicts [16]. Coking Coal - The coal mine resumes work well, and the weekly output slightly increases. The spot auction price rises, mainly due to market concerns about energy. The total inventory of coking coal slightly increases, and the production - end inventory slightly decreases. The coking coal price is likely to rise rather than fall due to energy concerns caused by geopolitical conflicts [17]. Metals Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals fell. The US - Iran war is difficult to stop in the short term, and the market sentiment fluctuates with the war information. Precious metals are under short - term pressure and wait for the further clarity of the war situation [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The high oil price may have a longer - term impact, and the US stock market is under pressure. The domestic refined copper price is 95325 yuan, and the Shanghai copper discount expands. The second - quarter domestic smelter maintenance scale may increase. The SMM social inventory decreases by 4.03 tons to 42.74 tons. The copper price has strong support at 91,000 [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly. The spot discounts in East China, Central China and South China are 110 yuan, 160 yuan and 180 yuan respectively. The aluminum ingot social inventory increases by 1.5 tons. The short - term Shanghai aluminum fluctuates mainly [4]. - **Zinc**: The decline of Shanghai zinc at the annual line position slows down. The short - term consumption enters the peak season, and the downstream terminal orders pick up. The basic - face continuous price - cut inventory reduction may provide some support for Shanghai zinc. The macro - situation of the US - Iran conflict and the strong US dollar make the Shanghai zinc rebound under pressure, and it is expected to enter the range - bound oscillation [7]. - **Lead**: The overseas aluminum ingot inventory reduction is not smooth, and the domestic aluminum ingot is in the stage of price - cut inventory reduction. The by - product price is high, and the comprehensive cost of primary aluminum smelters is low. The regenerative aluminum profit is poor, and some smelters reduce production or postpone resumption. Shanghai lead oscillates at a low level [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel oscillates, the market trading volume declines, and the position slowly recovers. The strong US dollar exerts pressure on the market. The stainless - steel demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and the downstream only replenishes inventory on a rigid basis. The social inventory is still at a high level, and the de - stocking is slow. The steel mills maintain high production, and the supply pressure is large. Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak - oscillation state [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin price oscillates. The tin supply is stable, and the domestic spot tin price is basically at par with the delivery - month tin price. The war affects the global computing - power facility trading premium. The tin price may test the lower integer level [10]. Rare Earth Metals No relevant information provided. Chemicals Polycrystalline Silicon - The average price of polycrystalline silicon SMM's N - type dense material is stable at 39,000 yuan/ton. The weekly inventory slightly decreases, and the enterprise shipment increases, but it is still in the active inventory - reduction cycle, and the price bottom is not clear. The downstream component production is at a low level year - on - year, and the inventory rises. The domestic installation demand is weak, and the cancellation of export tax rebates weakens the overseas support. The component losses lead to low raw - material procurement willingness. The short - term may oscillate and adjust, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [12]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon in East China remains stable. The supply is stable, and the demand from the polycrystalline silicon industry is weak. The industrial silicon market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory is still at a high level. It is expected that the silicon price will oscillate in the short term [13]. PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC oscillates weakly. The ethylene - method enterprises reduce the load, and the calcium - carbide - method enterprises increase the load. The overall supply fluctuates slightly. The downstream procurement is poor, and the inventory in sample warehouses in East and South China increases. The downstream start - up rate seasonally increases but is still at a low level year - on - year. The PVC export is expected to be good from March to April. Caustic soda oscillates weakly at night. The liquid - caustic soda inventory rises, and the chlor - alkali profit continues to rise. The high - concentration caustic soda has good support from export orders, and the downstream demand is stable [26]. PX & PTA - The US - Iran situation affects the oil and chemical markets, and the prices of PX and PTA oscillate and rise. The domestic PX load slightly increases, and the PTA load increases due to the restart of Yizheng. The downstream polyester slightly increases the load, and the terminal follows up slowly. The industrial chain is affected by energy, and the month - spread is under pressure [27]. Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene - glycol load slightly decreases. The port inventory increases, and the downstream recovery is slow. The global supply of ethylene glycol is expected to be tight. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the situation development, export performance and downstream load should be continuously monitored [28]. Short Fibre & Bottle Chip - The short - fibre load slightly decreases, and the downstream weaving load increases slowly. The market is affected by the Middle East situation and follows the raw - material price decline. The bottle - chip benefit is okay, and the load slightly decreases after a significant increase last week. The situation development and bottle - chip industry load performance should be continuously monitored [29]. Glass - Glass oscillates weakly. The industry continues to reduce inventory, but the intensity slows down. The upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is large. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The glass inventory pressure still exists, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [30]. 20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - The international crude - oil futures price rises, and the Thai raw - material market price rises. The global natural - rubber supply will enter the production - increasing period. The domestic butadiene - rubber device start - up rate decreases, and the upstream butadiene device start - up rate also decreases. The natural - rubber inventory in Qingdao increases, and the synthetic - rubber inventory decreases. Geopolitical risks exist, and the cost drives the price. The strategy is to wait and see, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be grasped [31]. Soda Ash - Soda ash oscillates weakly. The industry inventory increases. The maintenance increases this week, and the start - up and weekly production decrease. The demand from the float - glass industry is stable, and the photovoltaic - glass industry has an oversupply problem and may reduce production. It follows the macro - sentiment fluctuation in the short term, and the right - side short - selling strategy can be considered in the long term after the sentiment fades [32]. Agricultural Products Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA will release the 2026 planting intention report. The expected US new - season soybean planting area is 85.549 million acres, higher than the previous value. The US soybean inventory is expected to be 2.063 billion bushels, a six - year high, up 8% year - on - year. The soybean/soybean meal prices need to closely monitor the US - Iran situation, energy and fertilizer markets, Trump's visit to China and climate changes [33]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The crude - oil price rises, and soybean oil and palm oil follow. The Middle East situation boosts the marginal demand for biodiesel. However, the methanol shortage may affect the Indonesian palm - oil demand. The new - season crop planting and climate models add uncertainty to the agricultural - product supply. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy [33]. Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on the US biodiesel policy and the Middle East geopolitical situation. The US biodiesel policy affects the Canadian rapeseed - oil demand. The Middle East situation affects the vegetable - oil sector and crop - planting intentions. The supply increase will bring pressure to the supply - demand fundamentals, and the rapeseed - oil - to - rapeseed - meal ratio may rise [34]. Soybean No. 1 - The decline of domestic soybean prices slows down. The auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation provides some support. The subsequent price depends on the Middle East situation's impact on energy prices, macro - expectations and capital trends [35]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures oscillate weakly. The domestic port and spot prices are basically stable with sporadic price cuts. The increase in the domestic reserve - wheat auction volume may impact the corn price. The northeast grain - selling progress, state - reserve auction information and futures capital trends should be followed [36]. Live Pig - The live - pig futures increase in position, and the 05 contract hits a new low. The spot price continues to fall, and the 05 contract maintains a premium. The weaned - piglet price is at the lower limit of the cost range. The industry inventory pressure needs to be reduced, and the supply - demand situation is loose this year, so the pig - price reversal is difficult in the medium term [37]. Egg - The egg futures increase in position, and the near - month contract rises, possibly due to the short - term Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking. The spot price is stable. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and a low - position long - position strategy is recommended [38]. Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton slightly rises, and the spot basis is stable. The downstream textile enterprises purchase at low prices. The March peak - season demand is good, and the low - inventory textile enterprises have a willingness to stock up. The domestic import quota is issued, and the domestic - foreign cotton price difference narrows. The national commercial cotton inventory is at a high level, and the mid - term Zhengzhou cotton maintains a long - position strategy [39]. Sugar - Overnight US sugar oscillates. The international market focuses on the new - season Brazilian sugar production, which is expected to decline. The domestic sugar market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term sugar price faces pressure, but there is a possibility of a decline in Guangxi's production in the 26/27 season due to possible El Nino [40]. Apple - The apple futures price oscillates at a high level. The market focuses on the demand side. The demand in the northwest region is good, but the supply is limited. The Shandong apple quality is poor, and the price is high, so the downstream acceptance is low, and the futures price drops. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Wood - The wood futures price oscillates. The external - market quotation rises, and the domestic spot price is relatively weak. The short - term arrival volume may be low. The downstream demand recovers, and the port delivery volume increases. The national log inventory is low, providing some support to the price. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Pulp - The pulp futures price rebounds and then falls, and the spot price is stable. The domestic pulp port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas quotation is strong, providing some cost support. The domestic pulp demand is average, and the downstream paper price and profit are poor. The pulp is expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term [43]. Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares adjusted again with reduced trading volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 1%. The stock - index futures contracts all fell. The overnight overseas stock markets also fell. Trump will visit China, and the US - Iran situation is still uncertain. The medium - term allocation should consider a balanced strategy, and the broad - based index can be bought on dips in the short term [44]. Treasury Bond - The treasury - bond futures contracts all rose on March 26. The Iran - US - Israel negotiation has no significant progress. The central bank net - injected 21.1 billion yuan through reverse repurchase. The bond - market interest rate runs at a low level. The long - end bonds can be considered for rebound opportunities after over - decline [45].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures - On March 24, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78% to 3881.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.43% to 13536.56 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.50% to 3251.55 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2096.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 352.3 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on March 24, closing at 4474.72, a month-on-month increase of 56.73 [2] Group 2: Coke and Coking Coal - On March 24, the coke weighted index adjusted and consolidated, closing at 1823.0, a month-on-month decrease of 13.2 [2] - On March 24, the coking coal weighted index fluctuated within a narrow range, closing at 1297.2 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 5.7 [3] - The spot price of coke at ports increased. The mainstream coke enterprises proposed to raise the coke price by 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The steel mills' profitability was fair, and the iron water output continued to increase, leading to an increase in the procurement enthusiasm for coke [4] - The price of coking coal in some areas increased. The production of main coal-producing areas remained stable, and the market trading activity increased. The terminal steel demand improved, and the coke enterprises proposed a price increase [4] Group 3: Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on March 24. The uncertainty of short - term crude oil price limited the decline space [4] - The Asia - Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center issued an El Niño warning, indicating that most parts of the world may enter a warming stage in the next few months [4] Group 4: Rubber - Due to the high price of crude oil, the price of synthetic rubber has risen significantly, which may prompt manufacturers to choose natural rubber as a substitute. The Shanghai rubber fluctuated higher on March 24. The expected slowdown of global economic growth may restrict rubber demand [5] - As of March 22, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 685,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons, an increase of 1.18% [5] Group 5: Soybean Meal - On March 24, the CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1154 cents per bushel, a decrease of 0.9%. As of March 31, the soybean harvest in Brazil was 67.7% complete, behind last year's 76.4%. The market is concerned about the US Department of Agriculture's sowing intention report [5] - On March 24, the domestic soybean meal main M2605 contract closed at 2961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.53%. After the relaxation of the inspection of imported Brazilian soybeans, the supply shortage of soybean meal is expected to ease [5] Group 6: Live Pigs - On March 24, the live pig main contract LH2605 closed at 10045 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased, and the market supply pattern was loose. The demand was in the off - season, and the overall supply - demand pattern was supply - strong and demand - weak [5] Group 7: Palm Oil - On March 24, the palm oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuated widely, and the main contract P2605 closed with a small negative line. The price decreased by 3.00% compared with the previous trading day [5] - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 20 was 889,128 tons, a 61.02% increase compared with the same period last month [5] Group 8: Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper main CU2605 contract rebounded and fluctuated, closing at 94030 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.25%. The spot price increased, but the discount pattern remained unchanged. The price was supported by factors such as low domestic inventory, but the downstream demand did not show obvious improvement [5] Group 9: Cotton - On the night of March 24, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 15210 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 30 lots compared with the previous trading day. The "Golden March and Silver April" textile peak season this year exceeded market expectations [6] Group 10: Iron Ore - On March 24, the iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed up, with a gain of 0.55%, closing at 824 yuan. The shipping and arrival volume of iron ore increased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price was in a fluctuating trend in the short term [6] Group 11: Asphalt - On March 24, the asphalt 2606 main contract fluctuated and declined, with a decline of 3.66%, closing at 4401 yuan. The raw material supply was unstable, the refinery production plan in April decreased, and the downstream demand started slowly. The asphalt price may follow the oil price in the short term [6] Group 12: Logs - On March 24, the log 2605 main contract opened at 820, with a minimum of 818, a maximum of 825, and closed at 823, with an increase of 224 lots in positions [6] - The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. Future attention should be paid to factors such as spot price, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7] Group 13: Steel - On March 24, rb2605 closed at 3145 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3324 yuan/ton. The international oil price dropped, but the Middle East situation remained complex. The steel market supply and demand increased, and the cost support moved up. The steel price may fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [7] Group 14: Alumina - On March 24, ao2605 closed at 3014 yuan/ton. The Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, and the demand for industrial metals was under pressure. In the short term, the alumina price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation, but in the long term, the new production capacity will suppress the price [7] Group 15: Shanghai Aluminum - On March 24, al2605 closed at 23625 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum price was supported by multiple factors. The Middle East situation affected the aluminum price through price linkage, cost conduction, and market sentiment. The domestic aluminum price had a strong upward drive [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Cotton is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile market in the short term, while sugar is estimated to continue its volatile upward trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The domestic commercial inventory depletion process is accelerating, and the shortage of circulating resources at the end of this year is clear. The "Golden March" peak season for downstream textile has been confirmed, and the restocking demand has recovered. The planting area in the new year is expected to decline, and the market is bullish on the future. However, the implementation of 300,000 tons of processing trade quotas and the high internal and external price difference have enhanced import substitution, which has restricted the upward space of cotton prices. Trump's weekend remarks may worsen the Middle East situation, leading to restrictions on crude oil and chemical exports. The rise of crude oil has driven up the price of chemical fibers, indirectly driving up the price of cotton [1] Sugar - Due to the shortage of sugarcane, at least 179 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, have stopped crushing operations. The problems faced by the sugar industry may intensify due to the shortage of sugarcane in this season and the expected drought in the upcoming rainy season. The cost of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,403 yuan/ton, and the cost outside the quota is 5,606 yuan/ton. The profit of processing and paying taxes for Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,237 yuan/ton, and the profit outside the quota is 34 yuan/ton. The rise of the outer - plate raw sugar has narrowed the price difference between domestic and foreign sugar. Although the global sugar market is still loose, the raw sugar has gradually emerged from the trough due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices. With the narrowing of import profits, the downward space of sugar prices is expected to gradually shrink, and it is estimated that the subsequent trend may continue to rise in a volatile manner [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall growth of rubber trees in Yunnan is relatively good, and the tapping is expected to be 5 - 7 days earlier than in previous years, but recent rainfall has delayed the tapping operations and the planned start - up time of some processing plants. The large - scale tapping in Yunnan is expected to start around the 22nd of this month [3][4]. - The growth of rubber trees in Hainan is relatively good. Although there are some issues like partial drought and powdery mildew in some areas, the overall impact is small. Some areas have entered the trial - tapping stage, and the large - scale tapping in the main production areas may be after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [4]. - Currently, the phenological conditions of China's natural rubber main producing areas are good, and the tapping progress is in line with the seasonal pattern. Overseas main producing areas such as Vietnam and Thailand will enter the tapping cycle in April, and the price of natural rubber shows a downward pressure trend. However, the significant El Niño phenomenon in 2026 may affect the tapping operations, and the weather and tapping process in the producing areas need continuous attention [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the rubber main contract (05 contract), the daily - session closing price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 16,000 yuan/ton, the night - session closing price increased by 180 yuan/ton to 16,190 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 51,877 hands to 251,638 hands, the open interest decreased by 767 hands to 116,500 hands, the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 125,440 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members increased by 971 hands to 16,296 hands [2]. 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of spot - to - futures main contract decreased by 10 to - 100; the basis of mixed - to - futures main contract increased by 20 to - 920; the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 decreased by 10 to 50 [2]. 3.1.3 External Quotes and Substitutes - Among the external quotes, the price of RSS3 remained at 2,490 US dollars/ton, STR20 remained at 1,980 US dollars/ton, SMR20 remained at 1,970 US dollars/ton, and SIR20 decreased by 10 US dollars/ton to 1,880 US dollars/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 200 yuan/ton to 15,600 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.4 Spot Market - In the Qingdao market's imported rubber market, the price of Thai standard rubber decreased by 20 US dollars/ton to 1930 - 1935 US dollars/ton, the price of Thai mixed rubber decreased by 20 US dollars/ton to 1945 - 1950 US dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 decreased by 30 US dollars/ton to 1,865 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [2]. 3.3 Industry News - In Yunnan, the early - March rainfall was beneficial for rubber tree growth. With the recovery of rubber prices, farmers increased the maintenance of rubber forests. However, recent rainfall has delayed the tapping operations [3][4]. - In Hainan, the growth of rubber trees is relatively good. Some areas have entered the trial - tapping stage, and the large - scale tapping is expected to start from the end of March and continue in a south - to - north direction [4].

Summary of Conference Call on Oilseeds and Soybean Meal Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the oilseeds and soybean meal market, highlighting the cyclical nature of pricing influenced by weather patterns, particularly the La Niña phenomenon, which has historically led to bull markets approximately every eight years, with notable years being 2004, 2012, and 2020 [1][3] - The correlation between CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal is strong, with a correlation coefficient of 0.88, indicating that external market movements often have a greater impact than domestic ones [1][3] Key Insights and Arguments Soybean Market Outlook - The soybean market is expected to see a bumper crop in 2026, driven by increased biodiesel crushing in the U.S. (approximately 12 million tons) and a procurement agreement with China for 25 million tons, which will help reduce U.S. soybean inventories [1][5][8] - The demand side will be crucial for the 2026 market, with U.S. policies aimed at reducing large carryover stocks and boosting exports, particularly through biodiesel production [7][8] - The 2027 market outlook is more uncertain, with potential weather changes and increased demand from China expected to create more speculative opportunities [9][10] Oil Market Dynamics - The oil market's driving logic has shifted from supply-side factors to demand-side influences, particularly due to biodiesel policies in Indonesia, which have raised the blending ratio from B20 to B40 and potentially to B50 [1][4][10] - The oil market is expected to outperform the protein market in terms of price increases, especially if oil prices rise above $120 per barrel, which could push palm oil prices to 15,000 yuan/ton [1][14] Cost Structure and Geopolitical Impact - Land rent is the primary cost component in soybean production, with fertilizer and transportation costs each accounting for less than 10% of total costs [1][15] - Geopolitical events have led to increased shipping costs; however, suppliers often lower offshore prices to maintain competitiveness, limiting the impact on CNF (Cost and Freight) prices [1][16][17] Additional Important Points - The soybean meal market has experienced fluctuations due to delays in Brazilian shipments, affecting domestic prices and leading to a strong performance in the May contract [1][12] - The analysis framework for oilseeds typically involves two main lines: the protein line (soybeans and soybean meal) and the oil line (palm oil, soybean oil), with palm oil being the primary pricing benchmark due to its significant global production share [2][3] - The demand for soybean meal in the domestic feed sector is expected to grow, but at a slower rate than in 2025, with growth projected at 1-2% for 2026 compared to 2-3% in 2025 [15] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the oilseeds and soybean meal market dynamics, future outlooks, and the impact of external factors on pricing and demand.

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are significantly impacting the global commodity market, particularly benefiting agricultural stocks and commodities, although there are differing opinions on whether agricultural products can sustain a "super cycle" [2][3][4]. Group 1: Agricultural Sector Performance - The A-share agricultural sector saw a collective surge, with the planting industry index rising over 4%, reaching a 10.5-year high, and several stocks, including Nongfa Seed Industry and Shennong Seed Industry, experiencing gains of over 6% [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that the commodity cycle driven by geopolitical tensions typically follows a sequence: precious metals first, followed by energy and chemical products, and finally agricultural products [5][6]. Group 2: Price Dynamics and Influencing Factors - The rise in agricultural prices is not solely driven by geopolitical events; it is also supported by underlying industry logic, particularly weather patterns. The end of the La Niña phenomenon and the potential onset of El Niño could lead to significant weather-related impacts on crop yields [6][7]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are reshaping global commodity pricing, with UBS reporting a potential daily shortfall of about 10 million barrels in the oil market if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked until the end of April, which could push oil prices above $150 per barrel [9]. - Goldman Sachs provided various price scenarios, indicating that if oil supply resumes by March 21, Brent crude could average over $100 per barrel, while prolonged disruptions could raise fourth-quarter price forecasts significantly [9][10]. Group 3: Commodity Market Divergence - The commodity market is experiencing a divergence in price movements, with gold prices facing pressure from a strong dollar and inflation concerns, while copper and aluminum prices are influenced by complex supply-demand dynamics amid geopolitical tensions [10][11][12]. - The copper market is under pressure due to geopolitical instability, but demand remains resilient. Conversely, aluminum prices are affected by logistical challenges stemming from the Strait of Hormuz blockade, impacting supply contracts [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT May soybean contract rose 22 to close at 1223.75 cents per bushel, a 1.83% increase; the soybean meal 05 contract rose 213 to close at 3128 yuan per ton, a 7.31% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 280 to 3380 yuan per ton, a 9.03% increase; the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 217 to close at 2591 yuan per ton, a 9.14% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 230 to 2630 yuan per ton, a 9.58% increase [3][6]. - The continuous escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the continuous strengthening of oil prices continue to boost the US soybean market; China and the US are holding the sixth round of economic and trade consultations in France, and attention should be paid to China's subsequent procurement trends of US soybeans; Brazil's export supply remains high, but there are still disturbances due to quarantine issues. In China, the arrival of soybeans in March is relatively small, coupled with the increase in import costs and the logistics disturbances caused by the war, the expectation of supply tightening has increased, leading to a significant strengthening of the Dalian soybean meal, and the rapeseed meal was driven to rise significantly [3][6]. - The Middle - East conflict is still ongoing, and the concern about the energy crisis has intensified, which brings a boost to the US soybean market. China and the US are holding economic and trade consultations in France, and attention should be paid to the relevant agreements on US soybean procurement. The quarantine issues of Brazilian soybeans have brought disturbances. Pay attention to the China - Brazil talks before the end of the month, and subsequent shipments and export supplies may be accelerated. In China, the overall arrival of soybeans in March is relatively small, the supply is tightening, coupled with the increase in import costs and international shipping logistics and other influencing factors, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal closed significantly higher last week. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | Mar 13 | Mar 6 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1223.75 | 1201.75 | 22.00 | 1.83% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 495.00 | 472.00 | 23.00 | 4.87% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 536.00 | 519.00 | 17.00 | 3.28% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 124.27 | 64.41 | 59.85 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3128.00 | 2915.00 | 213.00 | 7.31% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2591.00 | 2374.00 | 217.00 | 9.14% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 537.00 | 541.00 | -4.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3320.00 | 3060.00 | 260.00 | 8.50% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3380.00 | 3100.00 | 280.00 | 9.03% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | 252.00 | 185.00 | 67.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The impact of the March USDA report is generally limited. The data shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season is 350 million bushels, unchanged from the previous month; the expected soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/2026 season is 180 million tons, unchanged, while the market expectation is 179.06 million tons; the expected soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/2026 season is revised down from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, and the market expectation is 48.11 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending March 5, 2026, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 457,000 tons, compared with 383,000 tons in the previous week; the cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season is 36.49 million tons, with a sales progress of 85.1%, compared with 88.3% in the same period last year; China's net purchase of US soybeans in that week was 83,000 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 10.9 million tons and an unshipped volume of 3.593 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending March 6, 2026, the gross profit of US soybean crushing (the price difference between soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal) was 2.94 US dollars per bushel, compared with 3.04 US dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 313.88 US dollars per short ton, compared with 321.92 US dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 64.61 cents per pound, compared with 60.61 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.98 US dollars per bushel, compared with 11.59 US dollars per bushel in the previous week [8]. - According to the Conab institution, as of March 7, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 50.6%, compared with 41.7% last week and 60.9% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 48.5%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 89.2%, compared with 81.3% last week and 91.7% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in Paraná was 46%, compared with 37% last week and 60% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in South Mato Grosso was 61%, compared with 50% last week and 70% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the expected soybean exports in March were 16.47 million tons, compared with the previous estimate of 16.09 million tons and 15.7 million tons in the same period last year [8]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that as of the week ending March 11, 2026, in terms of crop conditions, the proportion of normal and excellent crops was 76%, compared with 74% in the previous week and 75% in the same period last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the Argentine production area will be around the normal level, which is conducive to stabilizing the current production forecast [9]. - As of the week ending March 6, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.7267 million tons, a decrease of 240,200 tons from last week and an increase of 2.0257 million tons compared with the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 760,500 tons, an increase of 59,300 tons from last week and an increase of 167,600 tons compared with the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.3064 million tons, an increase of 1.3912 million tons from last week and an increase of 1.3204 million tons compared with the same period last year. The soybean inventory in national ports was 5.794 million tons, a decrease of 506,000 tons from last week and an increase of 1.7912 million tons compared with the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending March 13, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 168,700 tons, of which the spot trading volume was 141,100 tons and the forward trading volume was 27,600 tons. The average daily total trading volume in the week before the festival was 88,600 tons; the weekly average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 177,120 tons, compared with 158,100 tons in the week before the festival; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9694 million tons, compared with 1.833 million tons in the week before the festival; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 8.64 days, compared with 9.14 days in the previous week [10]. 3.3 Industry News - According to foreign media institutions, as of March 6, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 47.4%, compared with 58.7% in the same period last year and 52.6% in the same period in 2024. The average harvest progress in the same period in the past five years was 47.8%. In the past week, the soybean harvesting work in various parts of Brazil has advanced steadily. The rainfall in some central and southern parts of Brazil has decreased, which is conducive to field operations. Although the harvesting speed has slowed down compared with the previous two years, it is still consistent with the five - year average level. The yield fluctuates greatly, but overall, the harvest situation is good [11]. - The Agricultural Economics Institute of Mato Grosso State released that as of March 6, the soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season in the state had reached 89.15% of the planted area, lower than 91.84% in the same period last year and higher than the historical average of 81.99% in the same period. It is predicted that the soybean production in the state in the 2025/26 season will be 50.5 million tons, a 0.74% decrease from the record - high production last year [12]. - According to the latest report of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), after the dry weather in January, the timely rainfall in February stabilized the crop conditions in Argentina, and the estimated soybean production in the 2025 - 26 season remains at 48 million tons. FAS said in the report: "In the critical stage of crop development, some second - season soybean crops may have been affected by the drought in January, but the precipitation in February should alleviate some of the yield losses caused by the January drought, but not all." If FAS's estimate is realized, the soybean production in Argentina this year will be 5% less than 51.1 million tons in the 2024 - 25 season. However, this will still be the fourth - highest level in the past 10 years [12]. - According to the European Commission, as of March 8, the import volume of rapeseed in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 3.01 million tons, compared with 4.72 million tons last year. The import volume of palm oil in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 1.99 million tons, compared with 2.02 million tons last year [12]. - The IMEA institution released that in the past week (from February 27 to March 6), the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso State, Brazil was 662.00 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 676 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous period. The price of 46% protein soybean meal in Mato Grosso State was 1601.53 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 1590.03 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous period. The average price of soybean oil in Mato Grosso State was 5786.25 Brazilian reals per ton, compared with 5815.00 Brazilian reals per ton in the previous period. The average price of soybeans in Mato Grosso State was 102.43 Brazilian reals per bag, compared with 102.52 Brazilian reals per bag in the previous period [13]. - According to foreign media reports, the soybean harvesting work in various parts of Paraná State, Brazil has reached a climax. Some areas have completed the harvest, while some areas are in the final stage of harvesting. The dry weather has enabled the harvesting work to proceed smoothly, and significant progress has been made in mechanical operations. The Agricultural Economics Department of Paraná State (Deral) attributes this situation to the irregular rainfall and temperature fluctuations throughout the growing season. For crops in the pod - filling stage, the recent drought has led to water shortages. In other areas, the recent rainfall has temporarily interrupted field operations [13]. - The Brazilian National Petroleum Company plans to auction about 20 million liters of diesel in Rio Grande do Sul State to address the market's concern about fuel shortages and relieve the harvest pressure on farmers. The impact of rising diesel prices has been felt globally, and the Brazilian agricultural sector is the first to be affected. Since Brazil is currently in the harvest season of record - high soybeans and farmers also need to sow second - season corn crops in a timely manner, agricultural machinery and transportation are highly dependent on diesel. Therefore, the increase in fuel costs will significantly increase production expenses and affect the operation progress. One of the purposes of this auction is to ease market sentiment and replenish the supply in the short term [14]. - The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that the climate system will change from the La Niña phenomenon to a neutral state within the next month, and this state will last until the end of spring, and then change to the El Niño phenomenon in summer. The probability of the El Niño phenomenon occurring from June to August is 62%. The El Niño phenomenon usually brings wet and cold weather to the southern states, while the northern regions are warmer and drier [14]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange decided to maintain the estimated production of soybeans and corn in the 2025/26 season unchanged. Although there were drought concerns in some areas before, the extensive rainfall in February significantly improved the crop conditions in major agricultural production areas. Currently, it is expected that the soybean production in Argentina in the 2025/26 season will be 48 million tons, and the corn production will be 62 million tons, both consistent with the previous forecasts [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the management fund's net position in the CBOT, the soybean meal main contract trend, the spot prices of soybean meal in different regions, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the M 5 - 9 month - spread of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil, the crop conditions of soybeans in Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the US oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory in ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [15][16][17][18][20][22][24][26][28][31][32][34][36][38][40][44][46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, with the strong performance of US soybeans and the resonance of internal and external positive factors, the soybean meal market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of the soybean sector due to its inability to have an independent market based on its own fundamentals [29]. - In the medium - to - long - term, given the globally loose supply fundamentals, the overall upward space for prices in the feed - breeding industry is limited [30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Breeding Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures**: The closing prices of the main contracts of soybean meal (M2605), rapeseed meal (RM605), and corn (C2605) increased by 7.42%, 7.51%, and 0.50% respectively from March 5th to March 12th, 2026, while the main contract of live pigs (LH2605) decreased by 0.09%, and the main contract of eggs (JD2605) increased by 1.80% [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and eggs increased by 8.25%, 7.11%, 0.63%, and 5.46% respectively, while the spot price of live pigs decreased by 4.78% [4]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Cost - side - The probability of an El Niño event occurring from June to August is increasing. The US Department of Agriculture's March supply - demand report made little adjustment. The forecast of the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remained at 350 million bushels, the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans remained at 1.8 billion tons, and the forecast of Argentine soybean output was lowered from 4.85 million tons last month to 4.8 million tons. The global ending inventory of soybeans in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 125.31 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from February [9]. - Cargill has suspended some soybean exports due to the change in the Brazilian government's inspection system. The condition of the Argentine 2025/26 soybean crop has improved for the second consecutive week due to recent rainfall in key planting areas [9]. 3.2.2 Supply - China's soybean imports in February were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% [9]. 3.2.3 Demand - In March, domestic soybean crushing volume increased, but the arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased. The expected monthly soybean crushing volume is about 7 million tons, and the output of soybean meal is about 5.6 million tons. On March 12th, the trading volume of domestic mainstream oil - mill soybean meal decreased, with the average trading price reaching a 10 - and - a - half - month high [9]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the survey data, the soybean inventory of domestic main oil mills was 572.67 million tons, a decrease of 4.03% from last week but an increase of 54.73% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 76.05 million tons, an increase of 8.46% from last week and 28.27% year - on - year [9]. 3.3 Supply - side Details 3.3.1 Import - As of March 12th, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was $489.00 per ton, a $17 increase from last week, and the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was $525.00 per ton, a $12 increase from last week [16]. 3.3.2 Pressing - As of the week of March 12th, the soybean pressing profit was 270.75 yuan per ton, a 228.05 - yuan increase from last week. As of the week of March 6th, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9145 million tons, a 530,600 - ton increase from last week, and the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 49%, a 14 - percentage - point increase from last week [19]. 3.4 Inventory - side Details - As of March 12th, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.2418 million tons, a decrease of 93,900 tons from last week. As of March 6th, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 735,200 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from last week. Both are at extremely high levels in the past five years [21]. 3.5 Demand - side Details - As of March 6th, the average daily trading volume of domestic mainstream oil - mill soybean meal was 33,900 tons, the same as the previous week, and it was at a relatively low level in the past five years [23]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Supply**: The report presents data on rapeseed imports from different countries to China, rapeseed meal production in China at different time intervals (weekly, monthly, yearly), and the expected arrival volume of rapeseed at domestic pressing plants [25]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Data on the beginning inventory, supply, demand,提货 volume, apparent consumption, and trading volume of rapeseed meal in China, as well as the inventory at pressing plants and in some regions, are provided [27]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, soybean meal shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern due to the strong performance of US soybeans and the resonance of positive factors at home and abroad. Rapeseed meal follows the trend of the soybean sector [29]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the overall upward space is limited due to the globally loose supply fundamentals [30]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus includes产区 weather, geopolitical situation, US soybean exports to China, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [31].