（原标题：2025年前8个月越南咖啡出口金额同比增长59%） 越南《越南快讯》9月4日报道，据越南农业与环境部消息，2025年8月当月，越南出口咖啡约9.5万 吨，金额逾4.29亿美元。前8个月，越南共出口咖啡120万吨，金额达64.2亿美元，出口数量和出口金额 同比分别增长8.7%和59.1%。 报道称，越南咖啡出口量价齐增的主要原因，一是国际市场咖啡价格同比上涨近46.5%。二是厄尔 尼诺现象导致两大咖啡生产国巴西和印度尼西亚咖啡供应减少，而欧洲和北美需求仍然旺盛，特别是德 国、意大利和西班牙采购商增加咖啡进口，上述三国为越南咖啡的三大出口市场，占越南咖啡出口总金 额的近30%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The U.S. biodiesel policy draft exceeding expectations, the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the low inventories of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the central price of oils and fats [11]. - Oils and fats are currently in a state of balanced or slightly loose actual supply - demand, with a tight expectation. They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term before the inventories in consuming and producing areas are fully accumulated and the negative feedback of demand in consuming areas appears [11]. - Given the current high valuation, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In August, the three major oils and fats first rose and then fell. The market pre - traded the expectation of tight supply - demand in Indonesia, boosted by events such as Indonesia's confiscation of plantations and China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Subsequently, due to factors like commodity price corrections, high profits of major oils, and sufficient actual supply, the overall price of oils and fats declined. The net long positions of foreign capital seats that were long in August also decreased significantly [11]. - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA August monthly report maintained that the U.S. will increase industrial demand for soybean oil by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. India imported about 1.6 million tons of vegetable oils in August, and its inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. New rapeseed crops show a pattern of increased production [11]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: In August, the trading volume of soybean oil was good, while that of palm oil was weak, and the spot basis declined. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 400,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will decline slightly from a high level, the palm oil inventory will remain stable, and the total domestic inventory of oils and fats will remain high in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should consider the market as bullish. For now, it is advisable to observe high - frequency data and mainly adopt the strategy of buying after a decline and stabilization [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the basis and basis seasonality charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil's 01 contracts, including the basis between FCPOV25.MDE and FOB palm oil (Malaysia), and the basis between domestic spot prices and futures prices [18][20][22]. 3. Supply Side - **Production and Export**: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [27][28][29][30]. - **Weather**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, the NINO 3.4 index, and the impact of La Nina on global climate [32][33]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Charts**: There are charts showing the total inventory of three major domestic oils and fats, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the inventory of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [39][42][44][47]. - **Profit Charts**: Charts show the import profit of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, the average crushing profit of coastal rapeseed, and the POGO and BOHO spreads related to bio - diesel profits [42][44][58]. 5. Cost Side - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [49][50]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Charts show the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of imported rapeseed in China [53]. 6. Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume**: Charts show the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [56]. - **Bio - diesel Profit**: Charts show the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [58].

拉尼娜现象是指赤道太平洋东部和中部海水大范围持续异常变冷的现象，而厄尔尼诺现象则是指太平洋 赤道海域海水大范围持续异常升温的现象。 据世界气象组织2日发布的厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜现象最新通报，拉尼娜现象有可能从今年9月起回归并影响 未来数月的全球天气和气候状况。不过，尽管拉尼娜现象有暂时降温影响，全球众多地区的气温仍可能 高于平均水平。 气象组织介绍说，自2025年3月以来，中性条件（非厄尔尼诺现象也非拉尼娜现象）持续。然而，拉尼 娜现象有可能从9月开始并在未来数月浮现。9月至12月期间出现厄尔尼诺现象的可能性很小。 尽管拉尼娜现象可能会在不少地方回归，但通报也指出，9月至11月，北半球众多地区和南半球很大一 部分区域的气温预计将高于平均水平。 （文章来源：新华网） ...

全球气温升高影响了水循环。大气中水蒸气含量创下历史新高，2024年全球超1/5地区出现极端水 汽值，远超2023年的1/10。 据物理学家组织网报道，美国气象学会最新发布了《第35届年度气候状况》报告。这份汇聚58国 589位科学家智慧的报告，堪称地球的"年度体检报告"。报告为人类敲响了警钟：2024年，全球温室气 体浓度、陆地和海洋温度、海平面高度及海洋热含量等多项指标集体破纪录。 作为持续数十年的权威气候评估，该报告不仅追踪二氧化碳等关键指标，更整合了全球地面观测 站、海洋浮标、卫星等立体监测网络的数据。美国气象学会主席戴维·斯滕斯鲁德表示，这份经过严格 同行评审的报告揭示了2024年全球气温的破纪录表现，再次验证了气候变化的严峻现实。 报告揭示的关键发现令人警醒。温室气体浓度突破极值，大气中二氧化碳浓度攀升至422.8±0.1百 万分比浓度（ppm），较工业化前的278ppm飙升52%。 报告指出，全球已开启"高烧"模式。地表温度连续两年打破纪录，较1991—2020年均值高出0.63℃ —0.72℃。此外，六大权威数据集得出高度一致的结论，即2015—2024年成为有记录以来最热的十年。 此外，受厄尔 ...

Group 1 - The black series futures, including coking coal and coke, experienced significant increases, with coking coal rising by 3.18% and coke by 3.15% on July 2 [1] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The National Climate Center predicts that high temperatures this year will be intense and prolonged, with northern China potentially exceeding 42°C for over 30 days [1] Group 2 - Year-to-date data shows that the cumulative coal sales of key monitored enterprises reached 121,815.8 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.1%, with thermal coal and coking coal sales down by 5.3% and 4%, respectively, while anthracite coal sales increased by 7.3% [1] - Longjiang Securities anticipates seasonal demand improvement due to the summer peak and the "Golden September and Silver October" period, alongside a potential contraction in imported coal volumes [1] - The China Coal Association has called for production control and quality improvement, with safety inspections expected to remain stringent following June's safety month [1] Group 3 - Guotai Junan Securities views the next four months as a critical verification period for fundamentals, predicting that the second quarter of 2025 will mark the bottom of the coal industry's fundamentals [1] - Companies with a small proportion of non-coal business, such as Pingjiang Co., New Energy, Yanzhou Coal, Haohua Energy, and China Coal Energy, are significantly undervalued [2] - Companies with a large proportion of non-coal business, such as Huaibei Mining and Shaanxi Energy, are even more undervalued [2]

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、国际市场：25/26 | 年度全球棉花供需矛盾不明显。 3 | | | 三、美国：新年度产量有所调减，签约表现较差，建议关注未来弃种率变化 4 | | | 四、其他国家：印度新年度种植面积有所增加、巴西产量略有上调。 6 | | | 五、国内市场：短期去库速度较快，下半年关注旺季需求变化。 7 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 11 | 农产品板块研发报告 棉系半年报 2025 年 6 月 27 日 国际宏观变数大 低库存支撑棉价 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 上半年棉花价格走势主要受宏观影响为主，由于上半年基本面未出现明 显变化使得棉花价格前期维持震荡走势，4 月伴随着特朗普对全球加征关税 使得市场对全球经济有一定悲观预期，大宗商品整体表现受其影响而偏弱走 势，棉花价格最低跌至 12400 附近，之后由于特朗普对关税态度有所缓和 以及中美瑞士谈判超预期使得棉花价格回升后进入震荡调整。 上半年美棉上半年基本面 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Global Food Crisis Report indicates that 295.3 million people in 53 countries will face severe food insecurity in 2024, an increase of 13.7 million from 2023, marking the sixth consecutive year of growth [1] - The primary drivers of food insecurity and malnutrition globally remain conflicts, economic shocks, extreme weather, and forced displacement, which have devastating impacts on already vulnerable regions [1] Group 1: Causes of Food Insecurity - Conflicts are the leading cause of severe food insecurity, affecting approximately 140 million people in 20 countries and regions, with famine reported in Sudan and critical situations in Gaza, South Sudan, Haiti, and Mali [1] - Economic shocks, including inflation and currency devaluation, have led 15 countries into hunger, impacting around 59.4 million people, with significant crises in Afghanistan, South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen [1] - Extreme weather events, particularly those related to the El Niño phenomenon, have caused food crises in 18 countries, affecting over 96 million people, with severe impacts noted in Southern Africa, South Asia, and the Horn of Africa [1] Group 2: Humanitarian Funding Outlook - The report forecasts a significant reduction in global humanitarian funding for food and nutrition by 2025, suggesting that the issue of global hunger will persist [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the coal industry in China, focusing on the impact of climate conditions on coal production and related agricultural activities. Core Insights and Arguments - **Drought Conditions**: In spring 2025, eastern and central China experienced varying degrees of drought, particularly in Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Guangdong, with severe drought persisting in Gansu, Shaanxi, Henan, and southern Jiangsu. The average national precipitation from January 1 to May 11, 2025, was 110.76 mm, approximately 13% lower than the average of the past 30 years, marking the lowest level since 2011 [2][3][4] - **Climate Influences**: The reduced precipitation is attributed to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which hindered moisture transport to eastern China. The La Niña phenomenon exacerbated the lack of precipitation during winter and spring [2][3][4] - **Future Weather Predictions**: For the upcoming weeks, moderate to severe meteorological drought is expected to continue in parts of northwest China and southern Jiangsu and Henan, while southern regions will experience increased rainfall, with some areas seeing precipitation levels 30% to 60% above normal [4][10] - **Extreme Weather Events**: The 2025 flood season (June to August) is anticipated to witness frequent extreme weather events, including both drought and flooding. Northern regions are expected to receive more rainfall, while southern areas will see less, leading to significant flooding risks in the Haihe, Yellow River, Liaohe, and Huaihe basins [10][11] - **Typhoon Activity**: An increase in the number and intensity of typhoons is expected this year, with one or two potentially impacting China. The paths of these typhoons will be influenced by the subtropical high-pressure system and the La Niña phenomenon [10][30] Additional Important Content - **Wind Events**: There has been a notable increase in strong wind events since winter 2025, posing challenges to agriculture, safety, and environmental protection. This is linked to significant atmospheric circulation patterns [5][6][21] - **Temperature Trends**: The summer of 2025 is projected to be warmer than average, with temperatures expected to rise by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius nationwide, particularly in the Yangtze River basin and southern regions, where temperatures may exceed 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal [4][35] - **Impact on Agriculture**: The ongoing drought and high temperatures are likely to adversely affect agricultural production, especially for winter wheat in severely impacted areas [4][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interplay between climate conditions and the coal industry, as well as the broader implications for agriculture and weather patterns in China.