南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——降雨集中在沙巴地区，留意产量后续是否受到影响 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年3月2日 本周重要气象提示 1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，25年年底开始南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，直 到2026年1月底依然维持，厄尔尼诺指数截至25年12月底为-0.55，南方涛动指数持续正值，拉尼娜现象持 续，但截至目前暂时未出现剧烈影响。 2、本周天气来看，马来群岛降雨分布依然不均匀，主要集中在印尼的大部分地区及马来东部。马来半岛降雨 多在北部地区，南部依然降雨偏少。 3、土壤湿度来看，马来半岛南部土壤湿度依然偏干，3月及4月目前来看缺乏好转可能，不过沙巴和沙捞越地 区降雨量尚可，土壤湿度全国范围较好，暂无干旱困扰，印尼本周大部分地区降雨恢复，但廖内及南苏门答 腊、北苏门答腊岛深层土壤湿度继续下滑，如后续降雨无改善，在3、4月可能也有干旱风险。 4、短期沙巴地区或伴随强降雨过程，持续降雨时长，如持续过久或将导致短期产量下滑，但整体来看土壤湿 ...

（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 ICE公布数据显示，截至2月11日，ICE可交割的2号期棉合约库存为102232包，前一日为99096包。 汇市：美元指数上涨。股市：纽约股市三大股指显著上涨。油市：国际油价微涨。 二、现货 12日CotlookA指数73.55美分/磅，涨25点。 ICE交投最活跃的5月棉花期货合约上涨0.29美分或0.45%，结算价报64.33美分/磅。 美国农业部(USDA)周四公布的出口销售报告显示，2月5日止当周，当前年度美棉出口销售净增23.1万 包，较前周减少8%，较前四周均值减少23%。下一年度美棉出口销售净增5.09万包。 PriceFuturesGroup的副总裁JackScoville表示："最新公布的棉花出口销售数据表现还不错，这帮助支撑 棉价。" 在谈到短期展望时，堪萨斯州的大宗商品分析师SidLove表示："我认为情况会保持平稳，但我预计在作 物播种之前，会有短暂的支撑，之后我们将关注厄尔尼诺现象如何发展。" 美国气候预测中心(CPC)表示，2026年2-4月，拉尼娜现象转为厄尔尼诺南方涛动中性状态(ENSO- neutral)的概率为60%，且中性状态预计将 ...

中新网曼谷2月12日电 (李映民 刘宇博)泰国开泰研究中心12日发布报告称，2026年泰国仍存在通货紧缩 风险。在国内需求放缓、进口商品增加导致市场竞争加剧的背景下，居民消费价格指数篮子中价格下跌 商品的比例持续扩大。 报告指出，目前泰国尚未明显进入通货紧缩状态，而是处于低通胀、通缩压力上升阶段，主要由于核心 通货膨胀率仍为正值，民间消费保持增长。 官方数据显示，2026年1月泰国通货膨胀率为-0.66%，已连续第十个月为负，且较上月的-0.28%进一步 扩大。 尽管面临能源价格下行带来的供应侧压力，开泰研究中心仍维持2026年全年通货膨胀率0.4%的预测。 该机构认为，部分生鲜食品价格趋升，加之核心通胀率预计维持正值，将对整体物价形成支撑。预计自 2026年第二季度起，通胀率有望回升至正值区间，原因包括去年同期基数较低，以及厄尔尼诺现象可能 导致部分生鲜食品减产，推动价格回升。 报告同时指出，2026年全年通胀率虽将保持正增长，但增速料放缓，这一趋势已在2025年第四季度核心 通胀率回落中显现。食品和饮料类商品价格仍将上涨，但涨幅预计收窄，反映出居民购买力仍偏弱、缺 乏额外消费刺激措施。同时，旅游业逐步复苏 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan has experienced severe snowstorms for three consecutive weeks, resulting in 46 fatalities and 558 injuries, primarily among the elderly engaged in snow removal activities [1] Group 1: Casualties and Impact - The latest data from Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications indicates that the snowstorms have led to 46 deaths and 558 injuries [1] - Most fatalities occurred among elderly individuals, particularly those aged 60 and above, who were involved in clearing snow from roofs and other areas [1] - The region most affected by snow-related deaths is Niigata Prefecture, reporting 17 fatalities [1] Group 2: Weather Conditions - Continuous snowfall since late January has buried many areas in northern Japan, especially along the coast, causing significant transportation disruptions [1] - Aomori City, a key transportation hub in northern Japan, has recorded a snow depth of 1.3 meters [1] Group 3: Future Weather Predictions - The Japan Meteorological Agency has forecasted a 60% probability of an El Niño phenomenon occurring in the country this summer [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Since the end of 2025, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was -0.55 as of the end of December 2025. The La Niña phenomenon persists, but its intensity is weak, so the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia has no obvious deviation, and currently has limited impact on palm oil producing areas [1]. - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has slightly recovered, mainly concentrated in most parts of Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. There is sporadic rainfall in the Malay Peninsula, mostly in the northern region [1]. - The soil moisture in the southern part of the Malay Peninsula is still dry, and there is no possibility of improvement in March and April. However, the rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak is acceptable, and the soil moisture is good across the country, with no drought concerns. Overall, the impact on production should be limited [2]. - In Indonesia, rainfall has recovered in most areas this week, but the soil moisture in Riau and West Kalimantan is decreasing. If there is no improvement in subsequent rainfall, there may be a drought risk in March and April [2]. - There is little short - term rainfall, and there are no severe weather disasters such as rainstorms. Continued attention should be paid to areas with poor soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year. However, if the weather in other areas is favorable for production, the overall production in the whole region is still optimistic [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weather and Phenomenon - The Southern Oscillation Index has been above the threshold of 1 since the end of 2025 and remained so until the end of January 2026. The El Niño index was -0.55 as of the end of December 2025. The La Niña phenomenon persists with weak intensity, and the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia has no obvious deviation [1]. Rainfall Distribution - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has slightly recovered, mainly in most parts of Indonesia and eastern Malaysia. The Malay Peninsula has sporadic rainfall, mostly in the north [1]. Soil Moisture - The southern part of the Malay Peninsula has dry soil moisture, with no improvement expected in March and April. Sabah and Sarawak have good soil moisture with no drought concerns [2]. - In Indonesia, most areas have recovered rainfall, but Riau and West Kalimantan have decreasing soil moisture, with potential drought risks in March and April if rainfall does not improve [2]. Production Outlook - If the soil moisture in lagging areas does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year. However, if other areas have favorable weather, the overall production in the whole region is still optimistic [2]. Specific Palm Oil Producing Areas Indonesia - Jambi: Rainfall has slightly improved in February, and soil moisture is expected to rise [23]. - West Kalimantan: Rainfall has increased, but soil conditions are average [31]. - Central Kalimantan: Rainfall shows an increasing trend, and soil moisture is being restored [40]. - East Kalimantan: Rainfall is acceptable, and soil moisture is being restored [47]. - Riau: Rainfall improvement is limited, and soil moisture continues to decline [55]. - South Sumatra: Rainfall has increased, and soil moisture may improve [60]. - North Sumatra: Rainfall is expected to recover, and soil moisture has not further deteriorated [67]. Malaysia - Johor: There is almost no precipitation, and soil moisture continues to decline [75]. - Pahang: Rainfall is still scarce, and soil moisture improvement is insufficient [81]. - Perak: Rainfall has slightly recovered in February, which may avoid further drought [88]. - Sabah: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [94]. - Sarawak: Rainfall in February is acceptable, and soil moisture may rise [101].

Group 1: Natural Gas Market Outlook - The company maintains a tight outlook for the US natural gas market in 2026, expecting NYMEX gas prices to rise to a seasonal fluctuation range of $4-5 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) [1] - Despite a warm winter in Europe, low natural gas inventories will support global LNG market replenishment demand, with expectations for the Dutch TTF gas price to decrease to a range of $9-10 per MMBtu in 2026 [1][5] - Attention is drawn to potential impacts of summer hurricanes on oil production and refining in the Gulf of Mexico [1] Group 2: Climate Impact on Commodity Markets - The company identifies climate shocks as a significant risk embedded in global supply chains, with the La Niña phenomenon re-emerging and a 60% probability of El Niño occurring later in the year [3][4] - The interplay of climate uncertainty and human policy constraints, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism and local production requirements in the US, is expected to create a new phase of "risk nesting" in the commodity market by 2026 [3] Group 3: Weather's Influence on Different Commodity Sectors - In the energy sector, temperature is the core driver, with US natural gas inventories lower than the five-year average, providing a favorable condition for price increases [5] - For non-ferrous metals, heavy rainfall may disrupt production and transportation in key mining regions, affecting costs and supply [6][7] - In the agricultural sector, weather conditions directly impact crop yields, with Brazil's soybean production expected to remain strong despite La Niña, while palm oil prices may face upward pressure due to high inventory levels and Ramadan demand [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of extreme weather events on various commodity markets, particularly focusing on agricultural products, natural gas, and metals due to the ongoing weak La Niña phenomenon and its expected transition to neutral conditions by March 2026 [1][2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments Weather Patterns and Their Impacts - The weak La Niña event is expected to end in March 2026, transitioning to neutral conditions, with a rising probability of El Niño starting in July 2026, reaching nearly 60% by November [1][4]. - Global warming is anticipated to prevent widespread cold winters, although localized cold spells may occur [2]. - The solar cycle's downward trend may increase the risk of extreme weather events over the next three to five years, with frequent switches between La Niña and El Niño phenomena [2]. Agricultural Market Impacts - **Soybeans**: Increased expectations for South American soybean production, with U.S. soybean prices projected to remain between 1,000 and 1,150 cents per bushel, unlikely to break the upper limit [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Minimal impact from weak La Niña on palm oil production, with Malaysian production recovering. Short-term bullish outlook for palm oil prices in the first half of 2026, but potential reductions in palm fruit production could occur if a strong El Niño develops [1][5]. - **Wheat**: Delayed sowing in domestic wheat may lead to growth pressures, with increased risks of cold spells and spring droughts. This could elevate new wheat prices in April-May 2026, potentially resonating with corn prices, which are expected to trend upward [1][5]. Natural Gas Market Dynamics - The U.S. natural gas market is influenced by temperature fluctuations, with November 2026 expected to be cold but warming in December, leading to significant consumption volatility [6]. - European natural gas inventories are low, with actual consumption showing a year-on-year decline, leading to downward pressure on prices [6]. - A global LNG supply increase is anticipated in 2026, with new projects in the U.S. and Qatar expected to support U.S. natural gas markets [3][7]. Metal Markets and Weather Effects - The La Niña phenomenon is affecting black metal markets through supply and demand dynamics. Warmer winters are reducing heating and electricity demand, leading to a decline in coal prices [9]. - Brazilian iron ore shipments are expected to continue increasing, exerting pressure on iron ore prices [9]. - The impact of extreme weather on non-ferrous metals includes risks from heavy rainfall and drought, affecting mining operations in regions like Indonesia and Chile [10]. Additional Important Insights - The transition to neutral weather conditions post-March 2026 may lead to increased volatility in commodity prices due to the unpredictable nature of weather patterns [4]. - The interplay between agricultural and energy markets, particularly in terms of pricing and production, is highlighted, with potential for significant price movements based on weather-related supply changes [5][6]. - The need for monitoring extreme weather impacts on mining operations and supply chains is emphasized, particularly in resource-rich regions vulnerable to climate variability [10].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Cotton and Sugar Markets - **Key Trends**: The cotton market in 2025 experienced significant fluctuations due to U.S.-China relations, inventory tightness, and price volatility. The sugar market in Brazil is influenced by drought conditions and production choices between sugar and ethanol. Cotton Market Insights - **Price Fluctuations**: Domestic cotton prices in China saw a rapid decline before the Qingming Festival, followed by a recovery due to tight inventory and strong consumption. The first quarter was strong, but prices dropped significantly in March and April due to high tariffs, reaching annual lows. [1][2][3] - **Global Supply and Demand**: The USDA reported a slight adjustment in global cotton supply surplus for the 2025/26 season, with a total production estimate of 26 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons year-on-year. Major producers like China and Brazil had good harvests, while the U.S. production remained at a multi-year low. [4][60] - **Export Dynamics**: U.S. cotton exports decreased by 13% year-on-year, with China’s contracts down by 54%, while Vietnam's increased by 46%. [4][61] - **Consumption Resilience**: Despite global supply being slightly loose, cotton consumption remained resilient, particularly in major textile exporting countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh, which saw significant increases in operating rates. [5][66] Sugar Market Insights - **Brazilian Sugar Production**: In 2025, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 2.36% year-on-year, but the sugar production increased by 0.86% due to a higher sugar-to-ethanol production ratio. Drought conditions significantly impacted sugarcane yield. [17][18] - **Impact of Drought**: The drought in Brazil has historically led to significant declines in sugarcane yield, with the 2025 yield dropping to 75.67 tons per hectare, a decrease of 5.14% year-on-year. [19][79] - **Market Dynamics**: The sugar market is expected to experience a rebound after a prolonged decline, with predictions of a price increase in the third quarter of 2026 due to tightening supply conditions. [77] Key Risks and Considerations - **Geopolitical Factors**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, continue to influence market dynamics, especially in cotton procurement. [62][74] - **Weather Risks**: Future weather patterns, particularly the potential for drought due to El Niño, pose risks to both cotton and sugar production in major producing regions. [28][33][34] - **Inventory Levels**: Monitoring commercial inventory levels in China is crucial, as a tight inventory could lead to price increases, while high levels could suppress prices. [71][74] Additional Insights - **Chinese Cotton Market**: The domestic cotton market is characterized by strong demand and stable inventory levels, with production estimates ranging from 7.51 million to 7.73 million tons for the new season. [68][9] - **Future Production Policies**: There are policies aimed at reducing cotton planting areas in China, but achieving these targets may be challenging due to farmers' preferences for cotton over other crops. [69] - **Global Sugar Supply**: The sugar market is expected to remain oversupplied, with Brazil's production choices heavily influencing international sugar prices. [80][81] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends from the conference call records, focusing on the cotton and sugar markets, their dynamics, and the associated risks.

Core Insights - The year 2025 is confirmed to be one of the hottest years on record, continuing the trend of rising global temperatures [1][2] - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service report indicate that human activities are the primary drivers of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, leading to long-term temperature rises [2][3] Temperature Trends - The global average surface temperature in 2025 is projected to be 1.44 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average (1850-1900) [2] - The past 11 years have been the hottest on record, with the last three years being the warmest, averaging 1.48 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels [2] - The three-year average temperature from 2023 to 2025 is expected to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels [2] Factors Contributing to Warming - The persistent accumulation of greenhouse gases and weakened natural carbon sinks are major contributors to the abnormal warming observed in recent years [2][4] - Ocean surface temperatures have reached unprecedented levels, exacerbated by phenomena such as El Niño and other oceanic changes [2][4] Extreme Weather Events - The increase in global temperatures is directly linked to a higher probability and intensity of heatwaves, stronger rainfall, and increased risks of flooding, droughts, and wildfires [4] - In 2025, half of the land areas experienced more days of extreme heat (32 degrees Celsius and above) than the historical average [4] - The year also saw a surge in extreme weather events, including record heatwaves and severe storms across Europe, Asia, and North America [4] Future Projections - Experts predict that 2026 may also be a warm year, potentially ranking among the top five hottest years on record, influenced by the evolution of El Niño and La Niña phenomena [5] - The long-term warming trend is expected to continue, with significant implications for climate risks faced by future generations [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils: Soybean oil and palm oil are rated as "sideways", while rapeseed oil is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [7]. - Protein meals: Soybean meal is rated as "sideways", and rapeseed meal is rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [9]. - Corn and starch: Rated as "sideways" [11]. - Hogs: Rated as "sideways" [13]. - Natural rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [15]. - Synthetic rubber: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [18]. - Cotton: Rated as "sideways with a bullish bias" [19]. - Sugar: Rated as "sideways with a downward bias" [20]. - Pulp: Rated as "sideways" [21]. - Offset paper: Rated as "sideways" [22]. - Logs: Rated as "sideways" [24]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different commodities having their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends. For example, in the hog market, short - term supply pressure remains, but long - term supply may gradually ease; in the oil market, although there are some policy and supply - demand changes, the overall supply is relatively abundant [14][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views 3.1.1. Hogs - **Logic**: Short - term supply pressure is small in early January, but some February hogs may be sold in advance in mid - to - late January. Medium - term supply will be excessive until April 2026. Long - term supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand declines after New Year's Day, and the average weight of hogs decreases but is still higher than the same period last year. - **Outlook**: The near - term price is expected to be in a weak sideways range, while the far - term price may rise in the second half of 2026, but currently, the production cut is insufficient, so far - term positions should be cautiously taken on dips [14]. 3.1.2. Oils - **Logic**: Indonesia cancels the B50 biodiesel plan, and raises the export tax on palm oil. The domestic soybean market has active auctions, and the supply of rapeseed oil may change due to trade relations. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil are sideways, and rapeseed oil is sideways with a downward bias. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and palm oil - rapeseed oil spread trading [7]. 3.1.3. Protein Meals - **Logic**: International factors such as the USDA's report, Brazilian soybean production, and the probability of El Niño affect the market. Domestically, soybean auctions are active, and the supply and demand of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by trade and consumption. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal are sideways, and rapeseed meal is sideways with a downward bias [9]. 3.1.4. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The increase in supply due to smooth selling restricts price increases. However, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, the time required for imported grains, and downstream replenishment demand support prices. - **Outlook**: Sideways in the short - term [12]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market has a bullish atmosphere, mainly driven by macro factors. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream demand is weak after the price increase. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the short - term [17]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price trend is bullish, mainly due to the expected improvement in the butadiene market and the possible impact of policies on supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the medium - term [19]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Logic**: The long - term driving factors are the expected "tight balance" in the 2025/26 season and the possible reduction in planting area in 2026. The short - term adjustment space is limited. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a bullish bias in the long - term [19]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with most major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Sideways with a downward bias in the medium - to - long - term [20]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include rising import costs and high downstream paper production. Bearish factors include difficult cost transfer, seasonal demand decline, and sufficient supply. - **Outlook**: Sideways [21]. 3.1.10. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The market is affected by factors such as new warehouse receipts, industry profitability, supply and demand, and downstream consumption. - **Outlook**: There may be pressure in the late period, and attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Logic**: The supply pressure will be marginally relieved in January - February. The price has support due to the inverted price difference, and there are some game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: Sideways within a range [24]. 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the monitoring categories including oils and fats, corn and starch, hogs, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, pulp and offset paper, logs, etc., but specific data details are not provided in the content [25][57][75]. 3.3. Commodity Index - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The agricultural product index also had a certain increase, with a daily increase of 0.20%, a 5 - day increase of 0.44%, a 1 - month increase of 2.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.29% [183][184].