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信用债顺势继续挖掘
HTSC· 2025-07-07 11:00
Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In July, the credit bond market may be bullish. Institutions can appropriately extend the duration of their portfolios based on their liability profiles and focus on trading opportunities. The coupon strategy should focus on 3 - 5 year investment opportunities in medium - to high - grade industries, urban investment bonds, and high - quality urban and rural commercial banks. For trading, institutions can moderately participate in the opportunities of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds and long - term general credit bonds, but should leave a larger safety margin and take profits in a timely manner [1][32][33] - The sustainability of the subsequent credit market depends on non - bank allocation power, interest rate disturbances, and the liquidity situation. Credit bond ETFs have become a new highlight, but investors should be cautious not to over - participate at present [10][16][17] Summary by Directory Market Review - From June 27 to July 4, 2025, after the quarter - end, the liquidity situation was loose, the equity market performed well, and the yield of interest rate bonds fluctuated within a narrow range. The market returned to coupon hunting, and the yields of credit bonds declined across the board by about 4BP. The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds generally declined by about 5BP, with the medium - and short - term yields declining more strongly, generally by over 6BP. The buying volume continued to increase, with wealth management products net buying 11.7 billion yuan and funds net buying 55.4 billion yuan. The median spreads of publicly - issued bonds of AAA - rated entities in various industries mostly declined by about 4BP, and the median spreads of urban investment bonds in each province declined across the board, with the spread in Guizhou declining by over 10BP [2][37] Primary Issuance - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the total issuance of corporate credit bonds was 166.8 billion yuan, a 60% decline from the previous period; the total issuance of financial credit bonds was 61.7 billion yuan, a 9% decline from the previous period. Among corporate credit bonds, urban investment bonds were issued at 56.7 billion yuan, and industrial bonds at 103.2 billion yuan, with a total net financing of 30.6 billion yuan. Urban investment bonds returned to the net repayment range, with a net repayment of 14.2 billion yuan, while industrial bonds had a net financing of 44.1 billion yuan. In terms of financial credit bonds, commercial bank bonds were issued at 22.6 billion yuan, commercial bank subordinated bonds at 36.6 billion yuan, and insurance and securities company bonds at 2.5 billion yuan, with a total net financing of 6.6 billion yuan. In terms of issuance interest rates, the average issuance interest rate of medium - and short - term notes for AAA - rated entities decreased slightly, while that for AA+ - rated entities increased. The average issuance interest rate of corporate bonds increased for all ratings except AAA [3][62] Secondary Trading - Active trading entities are mainly medium - to high - grade, medium - and short - term, and central and state - owned enterprises. For urban investment bonds, active trading entities are divided into two types: mainstream high - grade platforms in economically strong provinces such as Jiangsu and Guangdong, and core platforms in regions with relatively high spreads in large economic provinces such as Shandong, Sichuan, and Henan. For real estate bonds, active trading entities are still mainly AAA - rated, with most trading terms between 1 - 3 years. For private enterprise bonds, active trading entities are also mainly AAA - rated, with most trading terms in the medium - and short - term. In terms of long - term bonds, the proportion of bonds with a remaining term of over 5 years in actively traded urban investment bonds was 2%, a slight decline from the previous week's 4% [4][73]