Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks over the past year, exploring the reasons behind this increase, the current valuation of RMB assets, and the potential for future market growth [1][18]. Group 1: Market Trends - In a bull market, fluctuations are normal, and corrections are common even during significant upward trends [3][4]. - Historical data shows that even during major bull markets, such as in 2007, there were multiple corrections exceeding 10% [5][9]. - The index tends to rise over the long term, with past crises only causing temporary fluctuations [9]. Group 2: Recent Performance - As of mid-September 2024, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have risen significantly from a historical low valuation of 5.9 stars to around 4.1-4.2 stars [15][19]. - The past year has seen A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading global markets, with the MSCI World Index rising by 22.98% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 55.93% [21]. Group 3: Reasons for Market Growth - The first reason for the recent rise is valuation improvement, as the previous bear market had driven valuations to extremely low levels, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks being 50% lower than the global average [19][20]. - The second reason is the improvement in liquidity, aided by favorable policies and market conditions, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic supportive measures [26][28]. Group 4: Earnings Growth - There are signs of improvement in earnings, particularly in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors, which have shown significant growth [30][32]. - The technology sector in Hong Kong saw a remarkable earnings growth of 128.92% year-on-year in Q1 2025, although growth rates slowed to 51.24% in Q2 [32]. - Consumer sectors in A-shares have shown stable earnings growth, but the growth rate has slowed recently [34][38]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - If the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and domestic conditions remain accommodative, there is potential for further market growth, especially if earnings continue to improve [40].

从指数持仓来看，上证综合全收益指数十大权重分别为：贵州茅台（3.67%）、工商银行（3.66%）、 农业银行（3.39%）、中国石油（2.58%）、中国银行（2.24%）、招商银行（1.72%）、中国人寿 （1.53%）、长江电力（1.42%）、中国神华（1.25%）、中国电信（1.2%）。 从上证综合全收益指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比100.00%。 从上证综合全收益指数持仓样本的行业来看，金融占比26.27%、工业占比18.53%、信息技术占比 10.43%、原材料占比8.07%、主要消费占比7.48%、能源占比7.02%、可选消费占比6.32%、医药卫生占 比5.94%、公用事业占比4.94%、通信服务占比3.76%、房地产占比1.24%。 金融界6月3日消息，上证指数低开高走，上证综合全收益指数 (上证收益，000888)上涨0.44%，报 3766.89点，成交额4682.93亿元。 数据统计显示，上证综合全收益指数近一个月上涨2.23%，近三个月上涨1.03%，年至今上涨0.42%。 据了解，上证综合全收益指数是上证综合指数的衍生指数，由在上海证券交易所上市的符合条件的股票 与存托凭 ...

一、错误反应模式 总有人相信，自己投资做得不够好，是因为反应不够快。 其实，一个没有经过投资专业训练的普通人，对市场变化的所有快速反应，不过是不同程度的恐惧与贪 婪。 普通人的什么反应最快？直觉反应。有人要打你，你本能地躲避或用手挡住（这里强调普通人，因为受 训练的专业人士并非这么反应，后面再说）。 最快的反应都是基于下丘脑的情绪反应，而非大脑的认知反应，是一种更古老的反应模型，因此优先级 别也更高，它源自于我们祖先的两种最基本的需求——捕食猎物和逃避天敌。 捕食猎物带来的本能反应是兴奋，反应是进攻；逃避天敌带来的本能反应是恐惧，反应是逃跑，两种本 能反应之所以优先级别最高，是因为机会稍纵即逝，需要快速反应，不能想一想。 普通人在投资中，同样遗传了这两种动物本能反应，市场发生剧烈波动时，要么恐惧反应被优先激发而 卖出，要么类似捕猎的兴奋反应被优先激发而买入。 但是，适合这一类本能反应的环境往往很简单，对动物而言，食物就是食物，敌人就是敌人，然而越高 级的动物，面对的环境也越复杂，天敌和猎物没有那么泾渭分明，如果产生误判，盲目的出击有可能会 丧命，胡乱躲避不饿死也会累死。 同样，投资中真正的趋势性行情也非常少， ...