Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks over the past year, exploring the reasons behind this increase, the current valuation of RMB assets, and the potential for future market growth [1][18]. Group 1: Market Trends - In a bull market, fluctuations are normal, and corrections are common even during significant upward trends [3][4]. - Historical data shows that even during major bull markets, such as in 2007, there were multiple corrections exceeding 10% [5][9]. - The index tends to rise over the long term, with past crises only causing temporary fluctuations [9]. Group 2: Recent Performance - As of mid-September 2024, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have risen significantly from a historical low valuation of 5.9 stars to around 4.1-4.2 stars [15][19]. - The past year has seen A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading global markets, with the MSCI World Index rising by 22.98% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 55.93% [21]. Group 3: Reasons for Market Growth - The first reason for the recent rise is valuation improvement, as the previous bear market had driven valuations to extremely low levels, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks being 50% lower than the global average [19][20]. - The second reason is the improvement in liquidity, aided by favorable policies and market conditions, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic supportive measures [26][28]. Group 4: Earnings Growth - There are signs of improvement in earnings, particularly in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors, which have shown significant growth [30][32]. - The technology sector in Hong Kong saw a remarkable earnings growth of 128.92% year-on-year in Q1 2025, although growth rates slowed to 51.24% in Q2 [32]. - Consumer sectors in A-shares have shown stable earnings growth, but the growth rate has slowed recently [34][38]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - If the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates and domestic conditions remain accommodative, there is potential for further market growth, especially if earnings continue to improve [40].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘低开高走，整体上涨，截止到收盘，还在4.2星。 大中小盘股都上涨，涨幅差不多。 红利等价值风格连续上涨。 最近市场波动比较大，也有一些朋友关心，牛市是不是结束了。 我们先回顾下，A股港股牛市的特点。 1. 特点1：少有慢牛，经常是闪电般快牛。 包括最近1年的大涨，主要体现在去年9月，以及今年6-9月，也多是短期快速上涨体现的快牛行情。 2014-2015年、2020-2021年，也是如此。 股票市场中，真正大涨的时间，大约占全部交易日的7%。 但正是这7%的上涨时间，带来了市场绝大多数的回报。 所以投资中，也经常听到一句话：当闪电劈下来的时候，我们要在场。 成长风格上午下跌，到下午也变成上涨。 港股也整体上涨，涨幅比A股多一些。 港股的上涨下跌，波动会比A股更猛烈。 2. 特点2：少有普涨型牛市，多为结构型牛市。 A股只有2007年是普涨型大牛市，大小盘、成长/价值风格，都大幅上涨，涨幅也差不多。 其他牛市多为结构型牛市。 例如2014-2015年是小盘成长股领涨；2016-2017年是大盘价值股领涨；2020-2021年是大盘成长股领涨；2025年则是小盘、成 ...