钛媒体App 1月29日消息，中金研究认为，美联储在1月会议上维持利率不变，符合市场预期。理事沃勒 投下反对票，或与其希望被提名为下一任美联储主席有关。货币政策声明称"失业率已趋于稳定"，鲍威 尔表示货币政策"处于合适位置"，显示短期内再次降息的门槛提高。除此之外，鲍威尔并未提供太多指 引，他也回避了其它与利率制定不相干的问题。中金认为美联储在2026年仍有望降息两次，但首次降息 或推迟至第二季度。美国经济的核心问题并非增长不足，而在于收入分配不平衡和普通家庭的可负担压 力。这类结构性问题并非单靠货币就能解决，反而可能推动政府采取更多非市场化的干预性政策，来回 应选民的关切。（广角观察） ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 中金公司研报表示，美联储在1月会议上维持利率不变，符合市场预期。理事沃勒投下反对票，或与其 希望被提名为下一任美联储主席有关。货币政策声明称"失业率已趋于稳定"，鲍威尔表示货币政策"处 于合适位置"，显示短期内再次降息的门槛提高。除此之外，鲍威尔并未提供太多指引，他也回避了其 它与利率制定不相干的问题。我们认为美联储在2026年仍有望降息两次，但首次降息或推迟至第二季 度。美国经济的核心问题并非增长不足，而在于收入分配不平衡和普通家庭的可负担压力。这类结构性 问题并非单靠货币就能解决，反而可能推动政府采取更多非市场化的干预性政策，来回应选民的关切。 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $4.1 trillion over the next ten years, raising the deficit rate by 3-4 percentage points compared to 2010-2019 levels[2] - The average deficit rate over the next decade is projected to reach 6.4%, potentially increasing to 6.7% if certain tax cuts are extended beyond 2028[2][3] - The bill's implementation may lead to a fiscal deficit of approximately 7% in 2026, with short-term growth support for Q4 2025 and 2026[1][3] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation - The bill is anticipated to provide short-term economic growth support, but its long-term effectiveness is expected to diminish, potentially exacerbating inflation[3][4] - Independent institutions estimate that the bill will only contribute an additional 0.4% to U.S. GDP over the next decade, significantly lower than the White House's estimate of 2.4%-2.7%[3] Group 3: Social and Political Consequences - The bill may worsen income and welfare distribution in the U.S., intensifying political polarization, as high-income individuals and corporations benefit more from tax cuts[5] - The average annual tax cut for the wealthiest families is projected to be $12,000, while the poorest families may face a net loss of $1,600 annually[5] Group 4: Debt Sustainability Concerns - The bill could further undermine U.S. debt sustainability, with total government debt expected to rise from 124% of GDP[4] - The vision of reducing the deficit post-2029 is considered overly optimistic, with potential increases in interest costs and lower-than-expected GDP growth[4]