FOMC内部阵营分化已十分清晰。分析指出，若主席鲍威尔、副主席杰斐逊与威廉姆斯组成"降息支持阵营"，加 上三位特朗普任命的理事支持，仅能获得12名投票成员中的6票，距离多数通过仍差关键一票。 【环球网财经综合报道】随着12月货币政策会议临近，美联储内部关于降息的分歧日益公开化。上周末，两位关 键官员相继释放对立信号，凸显出通胀风险与劳动力市场降温之间的政策权衡困境。 作为今年拥有FOMC投票权的成员，波士顿联储主席苏珊・柯林斯周六明确表达了对12月降息的谨慎态度。她强 调，通胀领域仍存在风险，当前"温和限制性"的货币政策有助于确保通胀向2%目标回落。 与之形成鲜明对比的是，美联储三号人物、纽约联储主席约翰・威廉姆斯于周五释放了明确的降息信号。他表 示，劳动力市场下行风险已上升，而通胀上行压力有所缓解，"近期仍有进一步降息的空间"，以推动政策立场向 中性水平靠拢。 决策分歧的核心源于复杂的经济基本面。柯林斯指出，9月就业数据表现"喜忧参半"，新增岗位超出预期，但未改 变劳动力市场逐步降温的整体判断。 通胀方面，双方仍存在共识性担忧。柯林斯明确提及"通胀方面存在风险"；威廉姆斯虽认为通胀上行风险有所缓 解，但未否 ...

一番耸动言论激起外交风波，一纸"撒钱"方案引爆市场动荡。 高市早苗上任仅月余，就让日本站上风口浪尖。 11月中旬以来，日本国债遭遇大规模抛售，10年期国债收益率不断攀升，创下自2008年全球金融危机以 来的最高水平。 日元汇率则持续走低，一度跌至1美元兑157日元，创下10个月以来新低。 11月11日，日本东京。 债汇"双杀"，表面看是金融市场震荡，实则是政治、财政与外交多重压力交织下的集中反应。 股市也表现不佳，日经225指数一周累计下跌3.48%，失守49000点。 11月21日，高市早苗政府推出规模超21万亿日元的经济刺激计划，若计入地方政府与民间企业配套投 资，总规模预计高达42.8万亿日元，远高于去年同期水平。 尽管包含部分减税与能源补贴等惠民措施，但市场更关注其对日本财政可持续性的长期冲击。 财政支出规模大幅超出市场预期，也迅速点燃了外界对日本债务压力与通胀风险的担忧。 尽管高市早苗在记者会上强调，该计划充分考虑了财政可持续性，但市场并没有买单。有东京交易员表 示，越来越多观点认为，日本宏观经济政策路径正变得更加混乱。 《金融时报》报道指出，投资者担忧这份追加预算案远超预期，资金来源势必依赖大量长 ...

基本金属 | 招商评论 | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡下行。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基本面：昨日美联储官员提示通胀风险和私人信贷风险，十二月降息预期到 30%附近，美股中 AI | 相关股票大 | | | | | 跌，市场风险偏好下降。供应端，铜矿偏紧格局不变。昨日智利国家铜业给韩国报价年度电解铜升水 | 330 | 美 | | | 铜 | 金，大幅上涨，说明市场认为明年电铜供需紧张。需求端，国内华东华南平水铜现货升水 40 元和 15 | | | 元。精 | | | 废价差 3000 元。 | | | | | | 交易策略：宏观驱动不明，建议观望。 | | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.19%，收于 21530 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-40 | 元/吨，LME | | | | | 价格 2812.5 美元/吨。 | | | | | 铝 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅上升。 | | | | | | 交易策略 ...

如果不是彭博社今年早些时候的一篇长文，很多人可能到现在都不知道，在中国庞大的期货市场里，有一位长期隐居海外、几乎从不公开露面的亿万富翁 交易员，静悄悄地靠一笔黄金多头赚走了足足15亿美元。而且在黄金大赚之后，他又换了个方向，在铜市场上押下了接近10亿美元的重注，如今更是上海 期货交易所里规模最大的铜多头。 这位富豪叫边锡明。 名字不算响亮，但战绩让人不可能忽视。 过去两年，他之所以突然进入公众视野，就是因为他在黄金市场的那一记"神来之笔"。 2022年中，他判断全球会出现去美元化趋势，而且通胀风险愈发难以忽视，于是通过中财期货和自有资金大举买入中国黄金期货。当时很多人还在观望， 但边锡明早已稳稳进场。 结果怎么了？黄金在2023—2024年迎来破纪录上涨。他的仓位就在这波大行情里狂飙，据彭博估算，这一笔就让他净赚15亿美元。他的团队在某些月份甚 至坐拥高达500亿元人民币的总多头仓位，一个月盈利超过了30亿元。 更离谱的是，他赚到这种程度，几乎一句话都没对外说过。 当市场还沉浸在黄金神话里时，边锡明悄悄把仓位从黄金撤离，火力转向了铜。 这一次，他押注的是中国经济韧性、高科技产业升级、电动车、电网改造、能源转型 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 隔夜国际油价震荡,布伦特01合约跌0.4%。上周五因乌克兰袭击停运的CPC出口终端和俄罗斯黑海 港口已分别于上周五和上周日恢复,市场供给担忧应声缓解。原油市场四季度及明年一季度供需压 力仍趋放大，中期油价下行风险仍存，短期关注11月21日俄罗斯两油制裁生效后出口的进一步影响 及委内、伊朗风险释放情况。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属延续调整。近期美联储多位官员发言偏鹰压制降息预期，12月降息概率降至五成以下, 市场等待经济数据继续权衡经济和货币政策前景。贵金属构筑高位震荡平台，耐心等待新驱动以及 技术面的方向性指引。 【铜】 隔夜铜市阴线震荡,市场关注需求强弱,同时美国通胀风险升温。沪铜继续减仓,板块内表现相对 被动。业内关注上海铜年会加工费谈判。周一现铜报86510元，最后交易日上海铜升水105元，广东 升水10元，SMM社库减少7300吨至19.38万吨。刚果（金）卢阿拉巴州铜矿山体滑坡系Mourondo矿 区手工采矿人员聚集导致矿区桥梁坍塌所致。据称该省已紧急暂停省内所有手工采矿活动，关注事 态后续影响。铜市震荡在8.5-8.8万区间,高位空单 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenge in bridging internal divisions on interest rate paths without new economic data to reference [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Internal Divisions - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson's recent speech highlights the dilemma of balancing persistent inflation risks against weakening employment [4]. - There is a significant divide among Federal Reserve officials regarding the decision to maintain or lower interest rates, with potential for at least three dissenting votes in the upcoming December FOMC meeting [8]. Interest Rate Outlook - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have decreased, with implied probabilities dropping to approximately 45%, down from 60% a week prior and significantly lower than 90% during the October meeting [4][5]. - Jefferson reiterated that current interest rates are "slightly restrictive," which may hinder U.S. economic growth, yet recent cuts have brought rates closer to a neutral zone [4]. Economic Data and Decision-Making - The absence of significant economic data due to government shutdowns has exacerbated divisions among policymakers, with some officials indicating they will oppose further cuts unless employment worsens or inflation improves [5][6]. - Concerns about inflation persist, with some officials fearing that new price pressures from tariffs could keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target for the next two years [6]. Diverging Perspectives - One faction of officials, including those appointed by Trump, is more focused on labor market conditions and believes that the risks of high inflation are overstated [7]. - Another group, including several regional Fed presidents and Governor Michael Barr, is increasingly worried about inflation risks and the implications of further easing monetary conditions [6][7]. Economic Indicators - Recent comments from Fed officials indicate that companies are cautious about hiring and layoffs, with signs of weakening consumer confidence and sluggish wage growth suggesting ongoing economic challenges [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Bostic expresses a preference to maintain interest rates unchanged due to inflation being a greater risk [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - Bostic indicates a tendency to keep interest rates steady, highlighting concerns over inflation as a significant risk factor [1] Economic Outlook - The statement reflects ongoing uncertainties in the economic landscape, with inflation remaining a focal point for monetary policy decisions [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic outlook and the implications for the financial markets, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve's policies and their impact on the stock and bond markets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Policy Adjustments** The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points, but Chairman Powell indicated that further rate cuts are not guaranteed, highlighting internal divisions within the committee [2][3][6] 2. **Labor Market Stability** Recent ADP employment data showed an increase of 62,000 jobs in October, indicating that the labor market is stabilizing. Initial jobless claims were around 220,000, significantly below recession levels, suggesting that job growth is reaching a balance [3][5] 3. **Inflation Concerns** The potential inflation rate is estimated at around 3%, which is above the target and higher than pre-pandemic averages. Powell acknowledged that the issue largely lies on the supply side, indicating structural rather than cyclical challenges in the labor market [3][5] 4. **Investment in AI and Capital Expenditure** There is a significant increase in capital expenditures related to artificial intelligence, with projections suggesting that AI data center investment could reach $7 trillion by 2030. This could lead to a substantial increase in investment-grade bond issuance, estimated between $1.6 trillion to $1.7 trillion in 2026, reflecting a growth of 5% to 10% [11][14] 5. **Stock Market Outlook** The stock market is expected to benefit from strong earnings reports from major companies like Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, which have all raised their AI capital expenditure forecasts. This indicates a positive outlook for growth and profitability driven by AI integration [14][18] 6. **Seasonal Trends in the Market** Historical data suggests that the S&P 500 typically rises by 3% from November to the end of the year, indicating a potential for strong market performance in the upcoming months [9][15] 7. **Bond Market Dynamics** The anticipated surge in investment-grade bond issuance could create challenges for market absorption. The recent issuance by META of $30 billion in bonds, with a subscription rate of 4.5 times, highlights the demand for such securities [10][11] 8. **Economic Stimulus Measures** A series of fiscal and monetary stimulus measures are expected, potentially contributing an estimated 1% to 1.65% of GDP growth, which could further enhance market conditions [18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Divergence in Market Sentiment** There is a notable divergence between bond market pessimism regarding labor market weakness and stock market optimism about growth prospects driven by AI [7][13] 2. **Risks of Debt Financing** Increased capital expenditures may lead to higher debt levels, which could pressure long-term bond yields and affect market valuations, especially given the current high valuation levels [11][13] 3. **Retail Investor Behavior** Retail investors have shown a strong preference for bullish positions, with net bullish demand for retail options continuing for 26 weeks, indicating a shift in market dynamics [18] 4. **Volatility and Re-leveraging** As volatility decreases, there may be a reduction in mechanical re-leveraging demand, which could impact market movements and investor behavior [18]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a strong rebound, rising over $100 to surpass $4,110, marking the first time since October 27 that prices reached this level, driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus and potential government actions [1] - The proposed plan by President Trump to distribute at least $2,000 to each American and hints from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin about possible tax cuts have contributed to the bullish sentiment in the market [1] - Analysts suggest that the current economic environment, characterized by rising government spending and persistent inflation, is prompting investors to hedge against inflation risks and policy uncertainties through gold [1] Group 2 - Year-to-date, gold futures have increased by approximately 57%, potentially achieving the best annual performance since 1979, driven by central bank purchases, increased inflows into gold ETFs, and strong demand for physical gold [2] - Despite some forecasts predicting a peak of $4,350 in October, many Wall Street institutions remain bullish on gold, with UBS setting a 12-month target of $4,200 per ounce, and potential for prices to reach $4,700 if political and financial risks escalate [3] - JPMorgan's private bank is even more optimistic, projecting gold prices could rise to between $5,200 and $5,300 by the end of 2026, driven by continued purchases from emerging market central banks [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices remain strong, trading between $3990 and $4000, driven by concerns over economic slowdown due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and rising political uncertainty [1] - The Challenger report indicates that October layoffs exceeded 150,000, marking the highest monthly figure in nearly two decades, which has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] - Analysts suggest that the prospect of rate cuts reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, enhancing its attractiveness as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - WTI crude oil prices slightly increased to around $59.60 per barrel, supported by a weaker dollar, although rising inventories continue to exert pressure on the market [1] - U.S. Energy Information Administration data shows an increase of 5.202 million barrels in crude oil inventories last week, raising concerns about weak demand [1] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela and disruptions in Russian Black Sea fuel exports, partially offset negative supply impacts, leading analysts to believe oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]