交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：美联储表示特朗普罢免理事权力有限，银价回落；美国三大股指小幅 收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率多数下跌，10年期美债收益率跌 0.78个基点报4.261%；美元指数跌0.20%报98.24，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报 7.1534；COMEX白银期货跌0.02%报38.70美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：白银期货9354，现货9311，基差-43，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：沪银期货仓单1127333千克，日环比增加13692千克；中性 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：特朗普宣布"开除"现任美联储理事，但美联储表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $3,410 per ounce, amid concerns over U.S. tariffs and the potential impact on the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [2][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have seen a significant increase, reaching $3,416.65 per ounce as of July 22 [5]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to the looming deadline for tariffs and the gathering strength of dollar short positions among investors [2][13]. Group 2: Tariff Negotiations and Economic Implications - French Minister of Industry and Energy, Marc Ferracci, indicated that if no agreement on tariffs is reached by August 1, the EU will impose tariffs on over €90 billion worth of U.S. products, starting with an initial round of €21 billion [8]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed optimism about tariff revenues, projecting annual income could reach $300 billion, potentially accounting for 1% of GDP, with a ten-year forecast of $2.8 trillion [10]. Group 3: U.S. Dollar and Market Sentiment - The market is witnessing a crowded trade of shorting the dollar, as indicated by Bank of England Governor Bailey [14]. - Tim Hayes from Ned Davis Research has been bullish on gold since October 2023 and bearish on the dollar since March 2023, suggesting the dollar may need to drop another 10% to be considered undervalued [15]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently spoke at a regulatory meeting but did not provide any hints regarding monetary policy, adhering to the "quiet period" before the upcoming FOMC meeting [19]. - Powell emphasized the need for large banks to maintain sufficient capital and manage risks effectively, amidst ongoing discussions about the final rules of Basel III [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the bond trading strategy employed by investors, particularly in response to the potential risks associated with President Trump's actions towards the Federal Reserve Chairman [1][2] - Jeffrey Sherman, the Deputy Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, is one of the investors supporting a bond trade that involves buying 2-year Treasury bonds and shorting 10-year Treasury bonds, which is favored when the market anticipates closer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - This trading strategy has been held for approximately 10 months, betting on a steepening yield curve as interest rate cuts could lead to inflation concerns, thereby increasing long-term yields [1] Group 2 - The concept of a "shadow Federal Reserve" is mentioned as beneficial for the trading strategy, with Sherman holding this position in his Opportunistic Core Bond ETF [2] - Recent economic resilience has limited the Federal Reserve's ability to ease policies, but traders are betting that Trump's next appointee for the Fed Chair will be more inclined to lower interest rates [2] - Market expectations suggest that once a new chairman is appointed, there will be a belief that interest rate cuts will occur immediately [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jeffrey Sherman, the CIO of DoubleLine Capital, is engaging in a bond trading strategy that involves buying two-year U.S. Treasuries while shorting ten-year U.S. Treasuries to hedge against the risk of President Trump's potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Group 1 - The trading strategy is based on a bet that the yield curve will steepen following reports of Trump seeking to replace Powell [1] - Sherman suggests that the concept of a "shadow Federal Reserve" will support this trading strategy, as the market will closely scrutinize Powell's term [1] - There is an expectation that the new chairman will implement immediate rate cuts upon taking office [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of stablecoins, particularly USDT and USDC, as significant players in the global financial system, potentially acting as a "shadow Federal Reserve" that influences global interest rates and maintains the dollar's dominance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Circle Internet Group, the issuer of USDC, went public on June 5, raising $1.1 billion with an initial share price of $31, which surged by 168% on the first day. However, a significant sell-off by executives led to an 8% drop in stock price shortly after [2]. - Major payment companies like Visa and Mastercard are accelerating their integration of stablecoin settlements, while Walmart is testing enterprise stablecoins to validate their commercial viability [3]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - Stablecoins are becoming crucial players in the U.S. Treasury market, with projections indicating that they will purchase $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasuries in 2024, comparable to large money market funds [6]. - The influx of $3.5 billion in stablecoins can lead to a decrease in 3-month U.S. Treasury yields by 2-2.5 basis points, while an equivalent outflow can increase yields by 6-8 basis points [6]. Group 3: Regulatory and Economic Implications - The concentration of stablecoin reserves poses risks, such as potential runs on the currency, which could significantly impact U.S. Treasury yields and overall market stability [7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns that unregulated stablecoins could bypass capital flow controls and complicate central banks' macroeconomic management [11]. Group 4: Global Trends and Future Outlook - The global stablecoin market is projected to exceed $250 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for over 85% of this market, indicating a shift from being mere digital dollar substitutes to becoming on-chain safe-haven and settlement assets [10]. - The U.S. government's new cryptocurrency policy framework aims to support innovation while maintaining the dominance of U.S. dollar stablecoins and issuers [12]. - Countries like the UK, Australia, and South Korea are moving towards developing stablecoin regulations, indicating a shift from whether to develop stablecoins to how to do so [13].

Core Insights - The emergence of stablecoins, particularly USDC, is reshaping the global financial ecosystem, with Circle's recent IPO highlighting the growing significance of digital currencies [2][3] - Stablecoins are increasingly being recognized as "shadow central banks," influencing U.S. Treasury yields and the broader financial market [3][4] Company Developments - Circle Internet Group went public on June 5, raising $1.1 billion with an initial share price of $31, which surged by 168% on the first day [2] - Following the IPO, Circle executives sold 3.55 million shares valued at approximately $104 million, leading to an over 8% decline in the stock price shortly after [2] Industry Trends - Major payment organizations like Visa and Mastercard are integrating stablecoin settlements, while companies like Walmart are testing enterprise stablecoins for commercial viability [2] - The global stablecoin market surpassed $250 billion by May 2025, with USDT and USDC accounting for over 85% of the market share [5] Regulatory Landscape - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the "GENIUS Act," which aims to guide and establish a national framework for stablecoin innovation [2][6] - Regulatory concerns are rising as stablecoins may bypass capital flow controls and complicate central banks' macroeconomic management [6][7] Economic Implications - Stablecoins are becoming significant players in the U.S. Treasury market, with projections indicating they could purchase $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasuries in 2024 [3] - The concentration of stablecoin reserves poses potential risks, such as liquidity crises, which could lead to significant fluctuations in Treasury yields [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the global capital market may enter a phase of asset trust reconstruction, potentially leading to liquidity tightening and increased risk premiums [5] - The evolving landscape of stablecoins indicates a shift towards a new monetary framework, with countries worldwide considering how to develop their stablecoin policies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming increasingly significant, with potential candidates including Scott Bessent, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Judy Shelton, which may impact the Fed's independence and inflation targets [1][3]. Candidate Profiles - Christopher Waller has been a prominent figure in the Fed, advocating for a dovish stance and suggesting that tariffs will have a temporary effect on inflation, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts this year [2][3]. - Kevin Warsh, previously considered for the Fed Chair position by Trump, has criticized the Fed's quantitative easing policies and is seen as a potential candidate, although he has shown some flexibility in his recent statements regarding interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Judy Shelton, known for her controversial views advocating for a return to the gold standard and opposing Fed independence, could cause significant market volatility if nominated [6][7].