Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: Due to the resurgence of European - American trade disputes, the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. The Shanghai gold premium continued to expand to 0.1 yuan/gram. With the high dovish expectations of the shadow Fed, the gold price is supported. Considering the global situation after Trump's inauguration and the shift from inflation to recession expectations, the gold price is still likely to rise and hard to fall [4]. - **Silver**: After Trump announced to "fire" the current Fed governor, but the Fed stated that Trump's power to remove the governor was limited, the silver price fluctuated and declined. The Shanghai silver premium expanded to about 440 yuan/kg. The silver price still mainly follows the gold price and is affected by tariff concerns [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes rose slightly, European three major stock indexes fell across the board. Most US bond yields declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 0.78 basis points to 4.261%. The US dollar index fell 0.20% to 98.24, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1534. COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3443.20 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of stock indexes, bond yields, and the US dollar index. COMEX silver futures fell 0.02% to $38.70 per ounce [6]. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.4, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 37503 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 43, neutral; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 13692 kilograms to 1127333 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [6]. 3.3 Today's Attention - Time TBD, from August 27th - 29th, the 2025 AGIC Shenzhen (International) General Artificial Intelligence Conference and General Artificial Intelligence Industry Expo will be held at the Shenzhen International Convention and Exhibition Center. - At 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in July and Australia's CPI in July will be released. - At 12:01, Richmond Fed President Barkin (a 2027 FOMC voter) will talk about the economy again [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump's inauguration, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to recession expectations, making it difficult for the gold price to decline. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and reality will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver**: It follows the gold price. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: On August 26, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold was 625,171, an increase of 0.47% from the previous day; the short position volume was 472,276, an increase of 0.25%; the net position was 152,895, an increase of 1.14% [30]. - **Silver**: On August 26, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver was 1,082,920, a decrease of 3.30% from the previous day; the short position volume was 993,680, a decrease of 2.78%; the net position was 89,240, a decrease of 8.77% [33].

【导读】现货黄金突破3410美元/盎司，鲍威尔重磅发声 8月1日的最后关税期限逼近，美元空头力量正在凝聚，投资者担心美债被抛售，黄金、白银再度走强。 同时，美联储主席鲍威尔于今晚出席公开活动，尽管处于议息会议前的"静默期"，市场仍然高度关注他是否会意外释放货币政策信号。 黄金突破3410美元/盎司 7月22日晚间，伦敦现货黄金短线直线拉升，截至发稿，报3416.65美元/盎司。 | 3416.653 | | 昨结 3396.670 | | 聲 3396.826 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | +19.983 +0.59% | | 总量(kq) 0.00 | | 现手 0 | | 最高价 3417.820 | | 持 仓 | 0 | 2 當 0.000 | | 最低价 3383.115 | 增 仓 | | 0 | 内 0.000 营 | | 分时 | 五日 日Ｋ 周Ｋ 月Ｋ 更多 | | | 0 | | 叠加 | | | | 盘口 | | 3417.820 | | | -- 0.62% | 卖1 3417.135 0 | | | | | | 示 3416.555 0 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $3,410 per ounce, amid concerns over U.S. tariffs and the potential impact on the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [2][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have seen a significant increase, reaching $3,416.65 per ounce as of July 22 [5]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to the looming deadline for tariffs and the gathering strength of dollar short positions among investors [2][13]. Group 2: Tariff Negotiations and Economic Implications - French Minister of Industry and Energy, Marc Ferracci, indicated that if no agreement on tariffs is reached by August 1, the EU will impose tariffs on over €90 billion worth of U.S. products, starting with an initial round of €21 billion [8]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed optimism about tariff revenues, projecting annual income could reach $300 billion, potentially accounting for 1% of GDP, with a ten-year forecast of $2.8 trillion [10]. Group 3: U.S. Dollar and Market Sentiment - The market is witnessing a crowded trade of shorting the dollar, as indicated by Bank of England Governor Bailey [14]. - Tim Hayes from Ned Davis Research has been bullish on gold since October 2023 and bearish on the dollar since March 2023, suggesting the dollar may need to drop another 10% to be considered undervalued [15]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently spoke at a regulatory meeting but did not provide any hints regarding monetary policy, adhering to the "quiet period" before the upcoming FOMC meeting [19]. - Powell emphasized the need for large banks to maintain sufficient capital and manage risks effectively, amidst ongoing discussions about the final rules of Basel III [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the bond trading strategy employed by investors, particularly in response to the potential risks associated with President Trump's actions towards the Federal Reserve Chairman [1][2] - Jeffrey Sherman, the Deputy Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, is one of the investors supporting a bond trade that involves buying 2-year Treasury bonds and shorting 10-year Treasury bonds, which is favored when the market anticipates closer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - This trading strategy has been held for approximately 10 months, betting on a steepening yield curve as interest rate cuts could lead to inflation concerns, thereby increasing long-term yields [1] Group 2 - The concept of a "shadow Federal Reserve" is mentioned as beneficial for the trading strategy, with Sherman holding this position in his Opportunistic Core Bond ETF [2] - Recent economic resilience has limited the Federal Reserve's ability to ease policies, but traders are betting that Trump's next appointee for the Fed Chair will be more inclined to lower interest rates [2] - Market expectations suggest that once a new chairman is appointed, there will be a belief that interest rate cuts will occur immediately [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jeffrey Sherman, the CIO of DoubleLine Capital, is engaging in a bond trading strategy that involves buying two-year U.S. Treasuries while shorting ten-year U.S. Treasuries to hedge against the risk of President Trump's potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] Group 1 - The trading strategy is based on a bet that the yield curve will steepen following reports of Trump seeking to replace Powell [1] - Sherman suggests that the concept of a "shadow Federal Reserve" will support this trading strategy, as the market will closely scrutinize Powell's term [1] - There is an expectation that the new chairman will implement immediate rate cuts upon taking office [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of stablecoins, particularly USDT and USDC, as significant players in the global financial system, potentially acting as a "shadow Federal Reserve" that influences global interest rates and maintains the dollar's dominance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Circle Internet Group, the issuer of USDC, went public on June 5, raising $1.1 billion with an initial share price of $31, which surged by 168% on the first day. However, a significant sell-off by executives led to an 8% drop in stock price shortly after [2]. - Major payment companies like Visa and Mastercard are accelerating their integration of stablecoin settlements, while Walmart is testing enterprise stablecoins to validate their commercial viability [3]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - Stablecoins are becoming crucial players in the U.S. Treasury market, with projections indicating that they will purchase $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasuries in 2024, comparable to large money market funds [6]. - The influx of $3.5 billion in stablecoins can lead to a decrease in 3-month U.S. Treasury yields by 2-2.5 basis points, while an equivalent outflow can increase yields by 6-8 basis points [6]. Group 3: Regulatory and Economic Implications - The concentration of stablecoin reserves poses risks, such as potential runs on the currency, which could significantly impact U.S. Treasury yields and overall market stability [7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns that unregulated stablecoins could bypass capital flow controls and complicate central banks' macroeconomic management [11]. Group 4: Global Trends and Future Outlook - The global stablecoin market is projected to exceed $250 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for over 85% of this market, indicating a shift from being mere digital dollar substitutes to becoming on-chain safe-haven and settlement assets [10]. - The U.S. government's new cryptocurrency policy framework aims to support innovation while maintaining the dominance of U.S. dollar stablecoins and issuers [12]. - Countries like the UK, Australia, and South Korea are moving towards developing stablecoin regulations, indicating a shift from whether to develop stablecoins to how to do so [13].

Core Insights - The emergence of stablecoins, particularly USDC, is reshaping the global financial ecosystem, with Circle's recent IPO highlighting the growing significance of digital currencies [2][3] - Stablecoins are increasingly being recognized as "shadow central banks," influencing U.S. Treasury yields and the broader financial market [3][4] Company Developments - Circle Internet Group went public on June 5, raising $1.1 billion with an initial share price of $31, which surged by 168% on the first day [2] - Following the IPO, Circle executives sold 3.55 million shares valued at approximately $104 million, leading to an over 8% decline in the stock price shortly after [2] Industry Trends - Major payment organizations like Visa and Mastercard are integrating stablecoin settlements, while companies like Walmart are testing enterprise stablecoins for commercial viability [2] - The global stablecoin market surpassed $250 billion by May 2025, with USDT and USDC accounting for over 85% of the market share [5] Regulatory Landscape - The U.S. Senate is set to vote on the "GENIUS Act," which aims to guide and establish a national framework for stablecoin innovation [2][6] - Regulatory concerns are rising as stablecoins may bypass capital flow controls and complicate central banks' macroeconomic management [6][7] Economic Implications - Stablecoins are becoming significant players in the U.S. Treasury market, with projections indicating they could purchase $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasuries in 2024 [3] - The concentration of stablecoin reserves poses potential risks, such as liquidity crises, which could lead to significant fluctuations in Treasury yields [4][5] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the global capital market may enter a phase of asset trust reconstruction, potentially leading to liquidity tightening and increased risk premiums [5] - The evolving landscape of stablecoins indicates a shift towards a new monetary framework, with countries worldwide considering how to develop their stablecoin policies [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming increasingly significant, with potential candidates including Scott Bessent, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Judy Shelton, which may impact the Fed's independence and inflation targets [1][3]. Candidate Profiles - Christopher Waller has been a prominent figure in the Fed, advocating for a dovish stance and suggesting that tariffs will have a temporary effect on inflation, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts this year [2][3]. - Kevin Warsh, previously considered for the Fed Chair position by Trump, has criticized the Fed's quantitative easing policies and is seen as a potential candidate, although he has shown some flexibility in his recent statements regarding interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Judy Shelton, known for her controversial views advocating for a return to the gold standard and opposing Fed independence, could cause significant market volatility if nominated [6][7].