再次，2026 年摊余债基集中开放，预计规模超 6000 亿元，如果部 分产品转为信用风格，或提振对应期限信用债需求，更利好中高评 级 5 年、3 年左右品种。 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 2026 产业债，低利差下的结构博弈 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之七 [Table_Summary] ►2026 年，信用债需求或放缓 需求端，增量资金或放缓。首先，存款利率下降或继续推动居民资 产向理财产品迁移，2026 年理财规模有望延续稳步增长。但平滑净 值手段整改完毕，叠加低利差环境，理财配置信用债的占比或难上 升 。2025Q2 理财配置信用债占比为 38.8%，较 2024Q4 下降 2.3pct。 其次，基金销售费用新规对信用债影响较大的是短债、中短债基金 的赎回压力。以 25Q3 纯债基金持仓债券规模为基础，假设短债、 中短债基金赎回比例在 20%-40%，中长债基金、指数型基金赎回比 例在 10%-20%，涉及债券规模约 1.04-2.07 万亿元，其中信用债规 模约 3309-6618 亿元。 证券研究报告|固收研究 ...

Group 1: Market Context and Trends - The current environment of low interest rates and warming equity market sentiment creates fertile ground for the resurgence of fixed income plus (固收+) products[1] - The prohibition of manual interest supplementation and the self-discipline mechanism for deposits provide development space for broad fixed income asset management products[7] - The scarcity of high-yield assets and the mismatch between high-cost liabilities and low-return assets further exacerbate the asset shortage, necessitating the search for new sources of income[11] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Product Composition - Fixed income plus products should focus on capturing sector beta rather than individual stock alpha, as the latter may not effectively control volatility in this context[21] - Stock ETFs have emerged as ideal beta tools for fixed income plus products due to their ample capacity, low fees, and good liquidity[36] - The combination of pure bonds and stock ETFs may represent a new development direction for fixed income plus products, as traditional equity and convertible bonds are standard components[50] Group 3: Performance and Risk Management - As of Q4 2024, the stock and convertible bond allocation in secondary bond funds reached 27.4%, while mixed bond funds reached 29.1%, indicating a systematic increase in equity asset allocation[21] - The performance of 中欧磐固 A fund, which has a significant allocation to stock ETFs, demonstrated better performance and higher stability compared to secondary bond funds in 2024[56] - The strategy of using a barbell approach, focusing on dividend and technology stocks while incorporating broad-based investments, has proven effective in enhancing the risk-return profile of fixed income plus products[62]