Group 1 - The total amount of gold futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 87,015 kilograms, with no change from the previous day [1] - On October 28, gold futures opened at 926.92 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 928.56 yuan and a low of 900.62 yuan, closing at 901.38 yuan, down 4.20% [1] - The trading volume for the day was 474,483 contracts, with open interest decreasing by 4,899 contracts to 175,916 contracts [1] Group 2 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that by 2030, the U.S. government debt as a percentage of GDP will rise by over 20 percentage points to 143.4%, setting a new post-pandemic record [2] - The IMF estimates that the U.S. budget deficit will remain above 7% of GDP annually until 2030, making it the highest among all wealthy countries tracked by the organization [2] - In contrast, Italy and Greece are expected to see a decline in government debt ratios by the end of the century, as both countries are strictly controlling their budget deficits [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the U.S. government debt burden will surpass that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century, highlighting the poor state of U.S. public finances [1][4]. Summary by Sections U.S. Debt Forecast - The IMF forecasts that by the end of the 2020s, the total government debt in the U.S. will rise by over 20 percentage points, reaching 143.4% of GDP, exceeding the previous record set post-pandemic [1]. - The U.S. budget deficit is expected to remain above 7% of GDP annually until 2030, the highest level among all wealthy countries tracked by the IMF [1]. Comparison with Italy and Greece - Italy and Greece, historically scrutinized for their weak public finances, are projected to see a decline in their government debt burdens by the end of this decade due to strict budget control [1]. - In contrast, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to continue rising, with projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) indicating this trend will persist for decades [1][4]. Economic Context - Despite a low unemployment rate, the federal deficit in the U.S. has rapidly expanded during the Biden administration, with the IMF suggesting minimal action taken by the previous Trump administration to address this issue [4]. - The U.S. has a significant borrowing capacity due to its status as the issuer of the global reserve currency, which contrasts with the economic challenges faced by European nations [4]. Debt Measurement Metrics - The total government debt metric, which includes both central and local government debts, has been lower for the U.S. compared to Italy and Greece since the early 21st century [5]. - A net debt measure, excluding financial assets, indicates that U.S. debt levels will still be about 10 percentage points lower than Italy's by the end of the decade, although this net debt is also on the rise [5]. Italy's Fiscal Improvement - Italy's government, under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has received praise from foreign investors for its efforts to reduce the budget deficit, with a projected basic surplus of 0.9% of GDP this year, up from an initial forecast of 0.5% [8][10]. - Italy's fiscal deficit is expected to be 3% of GDP this year, down from 8.1% when Meloni took office in 2022, allowing Italy to exit the EU's excessive deficit procedure a year ahead of schedule [9]. Political Challenges in the U.S. - The political landscape in the U.S. complicates efforts to reduce the significant deficit, with both Democrats and Republicans resistant to spending cuts or tax increases [11]. - Future predictions regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal conditions are deemed optimistic, relying on uncertain factors such as productivity growth, tariff revenues, demographic changes, or interest rates [11].