Group 1: Impact of U.S. Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown, which began on October 1, is the first full shutdown since 2013, with no immediate signs of reopening [1][2] - The economic impact of the shutdown will depend on its duration; a short shutdown may only delay income, while a prolonged one could alter economic activity and market expectations [2][3] - The White House predicts a weekly loss of $15 billion due to the shutdown, although this figure is considered exaggerated; the last shutdown in 2018 resulted in a GDP loss of $11 billion over five weeks [3] Group 2: Political Dynamics and Government Restructuring - The shutdown provides an opportunity for the White House to restructure government agencies and shift blame onto the Democratic Party [2] - The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is expected to implement significant cuts, including reducing the federal workforce and pressuring Democratic-controlled states [2][3] - The ongoing political struggle between Republicans and Democrats is highlighted, with potential compromises on funding and tax credits being discussed [3] Group 3: Economic Performance of Spain - Spain's economy is growing at approximately 3%, outperforming other Eurozone countries, and has recently received an upgraded credit rating from S&P [4] - The service sector, particularly tourism and IT, has become a key driver of Spain's economic success, aided by EU funds for infrastructure development [4] - Spain's labor reforms have increased flexibility in employment contracts, leading to higher productivity and more full-time job opportunities [4] Group 4: Immigration Policy and Economic Growth in Spain - Spain's immigration policy has attracted a significant number of Spanish-speaking immigrants, contributing to economic growth and addressing labor shortages [5] - The influx of 600,000 new immigrants annually has expanded the tax base and improved government finances, although political stability remains a concern [5] - Spain faces challenges such as high unemployment rates and regulatory burdens that could hinder long-term growth [5] Group 5: Market Focus and Economic Indicators - Upcoming focus includes the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes, OPEC+ production decisions, and U.S. consumer confidence indicators [6] - The impact of the government shutdown on U.S. statistical data is noted, with implications for economic analysis and forecasting [6]

Core Viewpoint - Standard & Poor's (S&P) upgraded Morocco's long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings from "BB+/B" to "BBB-/A-3", restoring its investment-grade status lost during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 [1] Group 1: Rating Upgrade - Morocco is now the only African Eurobond issuer with an investment-grade rating [1] - The upgrade is attributed to Morocco's robust economic policies, enhanced fiscal discipline, and significant growth in foreign exchange reserves [1] - This rating increase will enable Morocco to secure international financing under more favorable conditions [1]

声明丨本文内容均引用权威资料结合个人观点进行撰写，文末已标注文献来源及截图，请知悉 高利率是诱饵！ 对于俄罗斯抛出的熊猫债，无论其利率再高也千万别碰。 这背后潜藏着两大致命风险，一旦陷进去，最终的结局可能会让你血本无归，被坑得惨不忍睹。 这绝非危言耸听，而是一场关乎无数普通人钱袋子的金融博弈，稍有不慎，便会跌入万劫不复的深渊。 夜幕下的金融市场，总是充满了各种诱惑与陷阱。 就在2025年9月，一则消息搅动了无数投资者的心弦：俄罗斯，这个身处国际制裁的国家，计划在中国发行人民币计价的债券，也就是我们常说 的"熊猫债"。 消息一出，市场上最引人注目的，莫过于其可能开出的极高预期收益率。 这笔收益，被一些人形容为"撒旦的蜜糖"，甜美得令人难以抗拒。 在当前全球普遍低利率的环境下，如此高的回报率无疑像一块巨大的磁石，吸引着逐利的资本。更有人从宏大叙事的角度，将其解读为深化中 俄战略合作的金融支持，甚至是推动人民币国际化的重要一步。 然而，甜蜜的表象之下，往往是致命的毒药。你以为这只是专业机构之间的资本游戏，与在银行存钱、购买理财的普通人无关？ 这种想法大错特错。事实上，危险可能正在以一种你完全意想不到的方式，悄悄逼近 ...

Economic Developments - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024[9] - Turkey's central bank reduced the benchmark interest rate by 250 basis points to 40.5%, exceeding market expectations[13] - Indonesia announced an economic stimulus package worth 16.23 trillion Indonesian rupiah (approximately $1 billion) to boost consumption and employment[15] Sovereign Credit Ratings - Moody's downgraded Poland's credit outlook from stable to negative while maintaining an A2 rating, citing weakened fiscal and debt indicators[41] - Fitch upgraded Italy's credit rating from BBB to BBB+ with a stable outlook, reflecting improved fiscal policies and revenue growth[42] - Fitch raised Portugal's credit rating from A- to A with a stable outlook, noting a significant reduction in public debt as a percentage of GDP[43] - Fitch downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+ with a stable outlook, highlighting rising public debt and persistent fiscal deficits[45] Geopolitical Risks - Recent drone incidents involving Russia have heightened geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, impacting the sovereign credit ratings of affected countries[7] - The ongoing conflict in Gaza has led to increased military spending in Israel, with an additional budget of $9 billion primarily for defense purposes[20] Trade and Investment - South Korea recorded a current account surplus of $10.78 billion in July, the highest for that month in history, with a cumulative surplus of $60.15 billion for the first seven months of the year[31] - The U.S. and India are set to complete the first phase of their trade agreement negotiations by November 2025[29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that France's sovereign credit rating has been downgraded by two agencies in one week, reflecting severe consequences of political and economic instability [1][2] - The recent political turmoil includes the collapse of Prime Minister Borne's government due to failed confidence votes on budget deficit reduction measures, leading to the appointment of a new Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, without stabilizing the political situation [1][2] - Morningstar DBRS indicates that the political environment and increasing government instability hinder the effectiveness of France's fiscal policy setting, raising execution risks for achieving fiscal targets in the coming years [1][2] Group 2 - Fitch downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from "AA-" to "A+" due to political divisions obstructing necessary reforms, which negatively impacts public finances and is expected to worsen public debt from 113.9% of GDP in 2025 to 121% by 2027 [2] - Political and fiscal turmoil has led to asset sell-offs in France, increasing borrowing costs relative to other European countries, with bond premiums nearly doubling since Macron's election call [2] - Despite exceeding growth expectations in the first half of the year, uncertainty is projected to lead to a more sluggish economy, as businesses and households hesitate on investment and consumption [2][3] Group 3 - Lecornu has not yet clarified how to negotiate with opposition lawmakers demanding tax increases and slower deficit reduction, with the primary task being to form a new government in a divided parliament [2][3] - Morningstar DBRS believes Lecornu's measures may be relatively weak, as previous proposals for significant tax increases and budget cuts were rejected by opposition votes [3] - The outlook for France's rating has been adjusted from "negative" to "stable," indicating some advantages as the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, but warns of potential further downgrades if structural fiscal imbalances and debt ratios continue to rise [3]

马来西亚政府即将在今年10月推出明年预算案。财政部表示，将持续推动财政改革，在维持财政健康的 同时积极支持经济增长。 马来西亚总理兼财政部部长安瓦尔也表示，在外部形势充满不确定因素的背景下，其政府将继续致力于 改进民众生活质量和推动经济改革。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 中新社吉隆坡9月20日电 (记者陈悦)马来西亚财政部20日发表声明称，国际信用评级机构标准普尔最新 评估维持马来西亚主权信用评级"A-"和展望"稳定"不变，该国将继续推动全面改革进程，以加速经济增 长、增强经济韧性和可持续性。 马来西亚财政部介绍，今年上半年，该国国内生产总值较去年同期增长4.4%，家庭消费支出增长强 劲、私人和公共部门投资持续增长、基础设施建设积极推进，今年全年国内生产总值有望较去年增长 4%到4.8%。 财政部同时指出，马来西亚已持续20多年实现经常项目盈余，且据标准普尔预测，得益于制造业出口增 长强劲，在未来3年中，该国有望将经常项目盈余稳定在占国内生产总值2.1%的水平。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China continues large-scale reverse repurchase operations, releasing medium-term liquidity with a total of 1.6 trillion yuan in operations for the month, the highest level since January [7] - The offshore RMB bond market sees a fundamental shift in issuance structure, with non-Chinese enterprises' monthly issuance surpassing 35 billion yuan, significantly exceeding the 15 billion yuan from Chinese enterprises [9] - High-quality non-Chinese issuers can save approximately 44 basis points in costs by issuing dim sum bonds and converting to USD compared to directly issuing USD bonds [9] Group 2 - The S&P 500's third-quarter earnings growth forecast has been slightly raised from 7.2% to 7.6%, primarily driven by strong prospects in the technology sector [31] - The S&P 500's revenue growth expectation for the third quarter has increased from 4.8% to 6.2%, with the technology sector leading at 13.9% growth [32] - The U.S. banking sector has accumulated unrealized losses of up to $395 billion due to rising interest rates affecting bond market values [35] Group 3 - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 55.4, the lowest since May, with inflation expectations rising [28] - Concerns over potential retaliatory tariffs from China have led U.S. farmers to shift large-scale planting from soybeans to corn, with corn planting area expected to reach nearly 99 million acres, the highest since 1936 [43] Group 4 - Fitch downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+, citing political deadlock and challenges in achieving significant fiscal consolidation [47] - S&P upgraded Spain's sovereign credit rating from A to A+, reflecting improvements in private sector deleveraging and external financial conditions [50] - Fitch upgraded Portugal's sovereign credit rating from A- to A, highlighting significant progress in reducing public debt [53] Group 5 - India's Securities and Exchange Board has introduced reforms to lower the minimum IPO equity dilution ratio for companies with a market capitalization over 5 trillion rupees from 5% to 2.5%, aiming to facilitate large companies' listings [66] - Thailand's gold exports to Cambodia surged by 19% year-on-year, raising suspicions of potential money laundering activities [69] Group 6 - Hedge funds have reduced their net long positions in WTI crude oil to a record low of 12,657 contracts, driven by multiple bearish factors including OPEC+ decisions and forecasts of severe oversupply [75]

www.ccxi.com.cn 国际宏观资讯双周报 7 月 29 日–8 月 11 日 本周资讯一览 热点评论 2025 年第 15 期 韩美达成关税协议 总统李在明将访美 经济 财政 政治 ttzhang@ccxi.com.cn 国际收支 ESG 主权信用 穆迪将土耳其主权信用等级由 B1 上调至 Ba3 展望由正面调整为稳定 主权与国际评级部 | 杜凌轩 | 010-66428877-279 | | --- | --- | | | lxdu@ccxi.com.cn | | 王家璐 | 010-66428877-451 | | | jlwang@ccxi.com.cn | | 于 嘉 | 010-66428877-242 | | | jyu@ccxi.com.cn | | 张晶鑫 | 010-66428877-243 | | | jxzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | 易 成 | 010-66428877-246 | | | chyi@ccxi.com.cn | | 方菏阳 | 010-66428877-567 | | | hyfang@ccxi.com.cn | | 李泽冕 | 010-66428 ...

Group 1 - The French government led by Prime Minister Borne fell due to failure to pass a confidence vote, highlighting increasing political division in the country [1][2] - Fitch Ratings downgraded France's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating from "AA-" to "A+", indicating deteriorating debt repayment prospects [2][3] - The political instability in France is seen as weakening the government's ability to implement significant fiscal reforms, with the debt-to-GDP ratio expected to rise from 113.2% in 2024 to 121% by 2027 [3][4] Group 2 - The demand for French sovereign bonds may weaken further as the downgrade typically raises risk premiums, although some analysts believe the market has already priced in this impact [5][6] - The yield on 10-year French bonds has increased from 2.85% to 3.5% over the past year, reflecting investor awareness of France's fiscal challenges [6][7] - A rare inversion has occurred where yields on corporate bonds from major French companies are lower than those of sovereign bonds, indicating a shift in investor perception of risk [8]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's warns that the U.S. may impose new sanctions on Brazil following the conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro, which could include the revocation of previously granted tariff exemptions on certain products [1] Group 1: Impacted Industries - The industries most at risk include aircraft exports, oil, and juice, which are currently on the tariff exemption list [1] - The Brazilian banking system may also become a potential target for sanctions [1] Group 2: Financial Sector Concerns - Moody's highlights that potential measures against Brazil's financial sector are noteworthy, as the financial industry accounts for approximately 22% of U.S. investments in Brazil [1] - Although Brazilian banks have not yet faced sanctions, such measures could hinder cross-border operations and weaken investor confidence [1] Group 3: Sovereign Credit Rating - Moody's believes that Brazil's sovereign credit status is not currently exposed to the risks of U.S. sanctions or trade measures [1] - The agency has rated Brazil's sovereign credit as "Ba1," which is one notch below investment grade, and downgraded the outlook from "positive" to "stable" in May due to concerns over the fiscal consolidation process [1]