截至目前，其他两大评级机构对意大利的立场已显现出积极迹象：惠誉（Fitch）当前给予意大利BBB 评级（展望正面），标普全球评级（S&P Global Ratings）亦在近期被市场预期可能调整其展望。若穆 迪此次确认上调，将标志着三大机构对意大利财政治理能力形成更广泛的共识。 尽管财政纪律有所改善，意大利公共债务规模仍处高位，评级调整并不意味着结构性挑战已完全化解。 意大利政府正通过多项举措缓解债务压力。其中包括锁定约2000亿欧元低成本长期资金，专项用于基础 设施、绿色转型与数字化改革；以及推进结构性改革，涵盖养老金制度改革、税收征管优化和劳动力市 场灵活性提升。相关措施的具体实施路径及成效评估暂未披露。 根据意大利政府预算计划，该国公共债务占GDP比重预计将从2024年的134.9%上升至2026年的 137.4%，并在2027年开始小幅下降。 数据显示，意大利公共债务总额在2024年末达到3.05万亿欧元，占GDP比重为134.9%，为欧元区第二 高，仅次于希腊，远超欧盟60%的警戒线。 新华财经北京11月20日电（崔凯）据市场消息称，国际评级机构穆迪投资者服务公司（Moodys Investors ...

尼泊尔连续两年获"BB-"主权信用评级 中新社加德满都11月18日电 (记者 崔楠)国际信用评级机构惠誉18日发布报告，将尼泊尔主权信用评级 定为"BB-"，评级展望为"稳定"，与该国去年水平持平。 尼泊尔财政部对此表示，尽管面临社会与政治局势动荡、自然灾害以及全球经济放缓等多重挑战，尼泊 尔仍维持去年的评级，显示该国经济指标正在逐步改善，并呈现稳定向好的趋势。 惠誉指出，尼泊尔"BB-"评级反映出其政府债务和外债规模相对较低，外部流动性较为充裕，以及以水 电产业为支撑的稳健中期增长前景。 但该机构同时提醒，政治不确定性仍可能影响尼泊尔后续评级。尽管尼泊尔临时政府已恢复国内秩序， 并宣布将于2026年3月5日举行选举，但政治过渡期的不确定性以及党派进一步分散，可能削弱政策制定 效率并拖累治理水平。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 尼泊尔自2024年起启动本国主权信用评级程序。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：付健青 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著 ...

11月13日，标普全球评级确认泰国主权信用评级为：长期外币评级"BBB+"、短期外币评级"A-2"，长期 本币评级"A-"、短期本币评级"A-2"，长期评级展望为稳定。 ...

人民财讯11月5日电，11月4日，中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司(简称"中诚信国际")将爱尔兰共和国 (简称"爱尔兰")主权信用等级由A+g上调至AA-g，评级展望维持稳定。 ...

Economic Impact - The recent government shutdown resulted in an economic loss of $18 billion, with nearly half of this amount, approximately $9 billion, being irreversible [3][4][6] - The shutdown led to the suspension of federal employees and contractors, causing a direct halt in productivity and economic activity [4][6] - Government services such as visa approvals and trade regulations were interrupted, negatively impacting business operations and investment decisions [6][12] Consumer and Business Confidence - The uncertainty caused by the shutdown led to reduced consumer spending and investment, further exacerbating economic downturn pressures [6][12] - Small businesses and local economies, particularly those reliant on government contracts or nearby federal employees, experienced significant revenue declines during the shutdown [15][12] Data Collection and Policy Implications - The interruption of key economic data collection during the shutdown hindered the federal government and the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed policy decisions [7][9] - The inability to assess the current economic state accurately may lead to delayed or inappropriate monetary policy responses, worsening the economic situation [9][11] Long-term Consequences - The shutdown highlighted systemic governance issues within the U.S. political system, raising concerns about the stability of the country's credit rating and overall economic governance [11][19] - Frequent shutdowns could lead to a loss of trust among international investors, potentially affecting U.S. debt rates and the dollar's value [11][21]

Group 1: Gold Market - The gold market experienced a significant decline last week, with spot gold closing down $138.26, a drop of 3.25%, ending at $4,112.65 [1] - Currently, gold is trading around $4,036, indicating continued downward pressure [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with a recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "AA" to "AA-" by Scope Ratings due to deteriorating public finances and governance standards [6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4% during its meeting on October 28-29 [9] - There is uncertainty regarding the release of inflation data next month due to a government shutdown, which could complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10] Group 3: International Relations and Conflicts - Pakistan's defense minister warned of "full-scale war" if no agreement is reached during talks with Afghanistan in Istanbul [14] - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, with Russia targeting Ukrainian defense and energy infrastructure, leading to temporary power outages in Ukraine [16] - A joint statement from multiple Western nations, including Canada and the EU, emphasized support for Ukraine and the need for a ceasefire [17]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the U.S. government debt burden will surpass that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century, highlighting the poor state of U.S. public finances [1][4]. Summary by Sections U.S. Debt Forecast - The IMF forecasts that by the end of the 2020s, the total government debt in the U.S. will rise by over 20 percentage points, reaching 143.4% of GDP, exceeding the previous record set post-pandemic [1]. - The U.S. budget deficit is expected to remain above 7% of GDP annually until 2030, the highest level among all wealthy countries tracked by the IMF [1]. Comparison with Italy and Greece - Italy and Greece, historically scrutinized for their weak public finances, are projected to see a decline in their government debt burdens by the end of this decade due to strict budget control [1]. - In contrast, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to continue rising, with projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) indicating this trend will persist for decades [1][4]. Economic Context - Despite a low unemployment rate, the federal deficit in the U.S. has rapidly expanded during the Biden administration, with the IMF suggesting minimal action taken by the previous Trump administration to address this issue [4]. - The U.S. has a significant borrowing capacity due to its status as the issuer of the global reserve currency, which contrasts with the economic challenges faced by European nations [4]. Debt Measurement Metrics - The total government debt metric, which includes both central and local government debts, has been lower for the U.S. compared to Italy and Greece since the early 21st century [5]. - A net debt measure, excluding financial assets, indicates that U.S. debt levels will still be about 10 percentage points lower than Italy's by the end of the decade, although this net debt is also on the rise [5]. Italy's Fiscal Improvement - Italy's government, under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has received praise from foreign investors for its efforts to reduce the budget deficit, with a projected basic surplus of 0.9% of GDP this year, up from an initial forecast of 0.5% [8][10]. - Italy's fiscal deficit is expected to be 3% of GDP this year, down from 8.1% when Meloni took office in 2022, allowing Italy to exit the EU's excessive deficit procedure a year ahead of schedule [9]. Political Challenges in the U.S. - The political landscape in the U.S. complicates efforts to reduce the significant deficit, with both Democrats and Republicans resistant to spending cuts or tax increases [11]. - Future predictions regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal conditions are deemed optimistic, relying on uncertain factors such as productivity growth, tariff revenues, demographic changes, or interest rates [11].

Core Points - Scope Ratings has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating by one notch to AA- due to ongoing public finance deterioration and declining governance standards [1][2] - The downgrade reflects increased risks in policy-making predictability and the ability of Congress to address structural fiscal challenges [1][2] - The U.S. has lost its last highest rating from the major credit agencies following Moody's downgrade in May, raising concerns about the fiscal path under the Trump administration [2] Summary by Sections Rating Downgrade - Scope Ratings has lowered the U.S. credit rating to AA-, which is three levels below its highest rating [1] - This downgrade is a result of the prolonged government spending deadlock in Washington, which has lasted over three weeks [1] Governance and Fiscal Concerns - The agency highlighted that weakened governance standards have reduced the predictability of U.S. policy-making and increased the risk of policy missteps [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 140% in the next four years, an increase of 15 percentage points from 2025 [2] Industry Reactions - Moritz Kraemer, former chief sovereign ratings officer at S&P Global, praised Scope Ratings for their courageous and objective stance regarding the decline in U.S. governance standards [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.01 basis points to 3.488% while the 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields increased by 0.87 and 0.94 basis points, respectively, to 3.614% and 4.010% [2][4] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was lower than expected, while the preliminary October Manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.2, exceeding expectations [3] - In China, from January to September, automobile exports reached 5.71 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 21% [3] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1991.00, down 3.21%, while the Nasdaq Index rose by 1.15% to 23204.87 [6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.01% to 47207.12, and the S&P 500 rose by 0.79% to 6791.69 [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3950.31, up 0.71%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 1.36% to 2491.35 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its 26th day, poses significant risks to the economy, with potential long-term impacts that could lead to a recession if the situation persists [1][3]. Economic Impact - Economists warn that if the government shutdown continues for several months, it could deplete the savings of furloughed employees and reduce overall consumer spending power due to the lack of critical government subsidies [3]. - Approximately 750,000 furloughed government workers are already feeling financial pressure, with reports of individuals relying on food banks [3]. - The shutdown has led to the postponement of key economic data releases, which could increase market uncertainty and diminish confidence among businesses and policymakers [3]. Credit Rating Downgrade - Scope Ratings has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "AA" to "AA-", citing deteriorating public finances, high fiscal deficits, rising interest expenditures, and reduced budget flexibility [2]. - The agency had previously adjusted the U.S. rating outlook to "negative" earlier in 2023, indicating ongoing concerns about the country's fiscal health [2]. Debt Concerns - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggesting that the debt-to-GDP ratio could reach 140% within four years, a significant increase from 2025 levels [5]. - The combination of government shutdown and rising debt levels signals a concerning trend for the U.S. economy, as it may hinder economic activity and fiscal decision-making [5][6]. Diverging Opinions - Some economists argue that the scale of funding affected by the government shutdown is relatively small, as most federal spending is categorized as "automatic disbursements," suggesting limited broader economic impact [6].