不过与此同时该评级机构也指出，鉴于美国拥有庞大的高收入经济体，并且考虑到美元作为全球储备货 币的作用，其融资具有灵活性。 债务担忧 2023 年，惠誉将美国主权评级从之前的"AAA"级下调了一个等级，当时该机构指出，预计美国的财政 状况将恶化，并且围绕债务上限的反复谈判仍在持续进行。 而今年，另一家信用评级机构穆迪也将美国主权信用评级下调了一个等级，理由是债务水平上升，这意 味着美国失去了最后的AAA评级。 惠誉的最新报告指出，"惠誉的债务动态模型表明，中期债务走势仍呈上升趋势，这增加了美国未来面 临经济冲击时的脆弱性。" 周五（8月22日），惠誉将美国的信用评级维持在"AA+"水平，并强调了对债务水平不断上升的担忧。 惠誉在一份声明中表示，高额的财政赤字和不断增加的政府债务水平限制了美国的评级，即便预计唐纳 德·特朗普总统大规模征收关税带来的收入增长将使今年的赤字减少，但"AA+"的评级仍不会改变。 该机构还指出，"美国尚未采取切实措施来解决其庞大的财政赤字、不断上升的债务负担，以及与人口 老龄化相关的即将增加的支出问题。" 不过好在，尽管债务水平在上升，但美元在全球储备中的58%份额支撑了美国政府的融资能 ...

Core Viewpoint - S&P Global Ratings has confirmed the United States sovereign credit rating at "AA+/A-1+" with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in the country's economic resilience and fiscal management [1] Economic Factors - The approval of the Trump administration's signature tax and spending legislation after seven months in office demonstrates the core policy agenda [1] - The increase in effective tariff rates is expected to substantially offset potential weaknesses in fiscal conditions, which could have been triggered by recent fiscal legislation involving tax increases and spending adjustments [1] Fiscal Outlook - The stable outlook reflects expectations of continued economic resilience in the U.S. [1] - The credibility and effectiveness of monetary policy execution are acknowledged [1] - Although the fiscal deficit remains high, it has not continued to expand, supporting the growth of general government net debt [1] - The debt ceiling has been raised by $5 trillion, contributing to the overall fiscal stability [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance emphasized that S&P's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook reflects international recognition of China's economic resilience and effective debt management [1][3] - A stable sovereign credit rating is crucial for attracting foreign investment and maintaining financing costs, as it indicates lower risk premiums for sovereign bonds, benefiting enterprises and local governments planning to issue bonds in international markets [3] - The Ministry of Finance indicated that macro policies will "continue to exert force and timely increase strength," balancing economic growth and risk prevention, which is viewed positively by international investors [3][4] Group 2 - The focus on promoting domestic and international dual circulation is highlighted, with an emphasis on expanding domestic demand to support stable growth amid global economic slowdown risks [3] - Maintaining the credit rating does not eliminate challenges, as local government debt structure adjustments and uncertainties in external trade may pose pressure points for economic performance in the second half of the year [4] - If policies can effectively balance growth and risk prevention, China's economic outlook may not only remain stable but also enhance its image as a "long-term investable" option for international investors [4]

Hot News - The national policy of exempting childcare and education fees for all kindergarten seniors is expected to benefit about 12 million children this fall, reducing family expenses by 20 billion yuan [2] - S&P maintains China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" and outlook at "stable". China's macro - policies will continue to exert force in the second half of the year [2] - In July, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%. The total in the first seven months was 25.7 trillion yuan, up 3.5% [2] - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves were 329.22 billion US dollars, down 2.52 billion US dollars from June. Gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces, the 9th consecutive monthly increase [2] - This week, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 16 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [3] Key Focus - Focus on urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, asphalt, and PP [4] Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.78%, precious metals 27.77%, oilseeds 12.55%, non - ferrous metals 20.75%, soft commodities 2.49%, coal - coke - steel - ore 15.06%, energy 3.26%, chemicals 11.42%, grains 1.17%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.74% [4] Position Changes - The position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented in the data [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% daily, 1.86% monthly, and 8.59% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.69% daily, 1.24% monthly, and 25.03% annually. In the fixed - income category, 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.05% daily, 0.12% monthly, and - 0.28% annually. In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index rose 0.25% daily, - 1.97% monthly, and - 0.96% annually; London spot gold rose 0.82% daily, 3.25% monthly, and 29.44% annually [6]

Economic Overview - Global economic growth momentum is weakening, influenced by trade frictions, monetary policy paths, and geopolitical factors, leading to increased volatility in economic and financial markets[1] - Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East exacerbating global economic uncertainty[1] - Emerging markets are experiencing some relief in sovereign credit risk due to a global trend towards lower interest rates[1] Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariff policy, implemented on April 2, is expected to worsen global trade imbalances and hinder economic growth, potentially harming the U.S. economy and increasing "stagflation" risks[2] - The tariffs are likely to raise inflation expectations, which may restrict the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates in the short term[2] - The tariff impacts could lead to increased uncertainty in global trade and capital markets, posing downward risks to global sovereign credit levels[2] Sovereign Credit Rating Actions - Credit rating downgrades occurred for France, Germany, and Thailand due to political instability and economic challenges, with France's rating adjusted from AAg to AA-g[3][5] - Positive adjustments were made for Turkey, Serbia, Egypt, and Sri Lanka, reflecting improved economic conditions and investor confidence, with Turkey's rating upgraded from BB-g to BBg[3][5] - Belgium's credit outlook was revised to negative due to slowing economic growth and rising fiscal deficits, while the ratings for the UAE and the UK were maintained[3][5] Specific Country Insights - France faces increasing fiscal deficits and debt issues due to political discord, which could elevate borrowing costs[8] - Germany's economic outlook is dimmed by a slight recession influenced by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, alongside declining political stability affecting policy effectiveness[12] - Egypt's credit rating was upgraded due to significant foreign investment inflows and improved fiscal liquidity, stemming from the Ras El-Hekma agreement and IMF loans[19][20]

Group 1 - The Romanian government plans to implement a tax increase and salary freeze to reduce the budget deficit below 6% of GDP by 2026 [1] - As of January to May 2025, Romania's budget deficit is projected to be 3.4% of GDP, with an expected increase to 7% by the end of the year, which is higher than other EU member states [1]

Group 1 - Russia's financial reserves have significantly decreased from 10 trillion rubles to 6 trillion rubles in just two months, indicating a severe fiscal crisis [1] - The average daily expenditure of Russia in the ongoing conflict is over 400 million USD, approximately 30 billion RMB, highlighting the financial strain of military operations [3] - The energy export sector, previously a major revenue source for Russia, is under pressure due to Western sanctions, with the IMF predicting a mere 0.3% GDP growth for Russia this year, suggesting economic stagnation [5][7] Group 2 - Russia is actively seeking to enhance energy cooperation with China, with the Russian Energy Minister frequently visiting China to discuss potential projects [9] - The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline project is a focal point for Russia, aiming to transport natural gas to China, but the financial terms proposed by Russia may be seen as excessive by China [11][13] - China is shifting from emotional cooperation to interest-based cooperation, emphasizing the need for mutually beneficial agreements rather than one-sided concessions [15][25] Group 3 - Russian energy companies are facing a significant decline in net profits, dropping from 1.445 trillion rubles to 789.5 billion rubles year-on-year, reflecting a severe downturn in the energy sector [20] - High domestic interest rates and a rapidly increasing debt burden are exacerbating Russia's financial challenges, with 20% benchmark interest rates and a 14% annual debt growth rate [21] - The reliance on Chinese markets for energy exports is seen as a potential lifeline for Russia, but sustainable cooperation must be based on shared interests and risk-sharing [23][27]

Core Viewpoint - Despite Moody's downgrade of the U.S. government bond credit rating, foreign investors are unlikely to abandon the U.S. bond market due to a lack of suitable alternatives [1] Group 1 - The number of countries with an AAA sovereign credit rating is very limited, approximately 11, and their bond markets are significantly smaller compared to the U.S. bond market [1] - The U.S. market possesses unique depth and breadth that other markets do not have [1] - If long-term government bond yields remain above 5%, a critical point may be reached where the hedging effect, particularly the yield spread, becomes attractive [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 4600 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly last week and remains at a historical low in the long term. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is near the 40-day moving average. In terms of operation, the Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, and the interest rate is still in a low range. In the medium and long term, the upward space is limited. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Macro and Market Outlook - **Weekly Macro and News**: Moody's decided to maintain China's sovereign credit rating at "A1" with a negative outlook. The international community warns that global governments must curb the rise of public debt due to the unsustainable fiscal path caused by rising interest rates [4] - **Outlook for Treasury Bonds**: Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The central bank net withdrew 4600 billion yuan. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose slightly, and in the long term, it is at a historical low. Technically, the short-term price of the T2506 contract is near the 40-day moving average. The Treasury bond market price fluctuates at a high level, the interest rate is in a low range, and the upward space is limited in the medium and long term. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Last week, Treasury bond futures showed a weak downward trend. The TS2509 contract rose 0.03%, the TF2509 contract rose 0.14%, the T2509 contract rose 0.18%, and the TL2509 contract rose 0.26% [6] 3.3 Changes in Treasury Bond Yields - **Yield Changes**: Last week, long-term interest rates rose, and the yield spread widened [10] 3.4 Treasury Bond CTD Bonds and Basis - **Arbitrage of Treasury Bond CTD Bonds**: This week, the IRR of long-term Treasury bond futures is higher than the short-term financing rate, indicating an arbitrage opportunity [13] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spreads and Basis - **TF-T Spread**: The spread between 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures widened, and their basis also widened [14] 3.6 Treasury Bond Term Structure - **Treasury Bond Term Structure**: The latest Treasury bond term structure is steeper than that on May 20th, and medium and long-term yields have risen [19]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's debt and tariff policies are pushing the country towards a financial crisis, with increasing inflation and loss of investor confidence in debt management [1][2]. Group 1: Debt and Economic Policies - The U.S. government is promoting a massive tax cut bill, which is seen as disastrous and likely to increase inflation [1]. - Investors are losing confidence in the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt, leading to concerns about the potential for a debt sell-off [1][2]. - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising debt and interest expenditures [1]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - The U.S. Treasury had to sell 20-year bonds at high interest rates, with 10-year and 30-year bond yields reaching levels not seen since before the 2007 financial crisis [1]. - By the end of 2026, the U.S. will need to restructure $9 trillion in debt, replacing low-interest old debt with high-interest new debt, which is becoming increasingly unattractive to investors [1]. Group 3: Consequences of Debt Management - A potential sell-off of U.S. Treasuries could lead to significant wealth evaporation, particularly affecting U.S. savers [2]. - Central banks may shift reserves from U.S. Treasuries to gold, resulting in a substantial increase in gold prices [2]. - Continued escalation of trade wars and unreliability of the U.S. could lead to a complete loss of confidence in the dollar, signaling a systemic collapse [2].