Economic Insights - The IMF warns Kenya and Ethiopia about the risks of converting SGR loans from USD to RMB, highlighting potential currency risks despite cost savings[7] - Japan's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, due to rising inflation pressures[10] - Australia's inflation rose to 3.8% in October, prompting the central bank to maintain interest rates at 3.6%[11] - Iran's economy has been in recession for 20 consecutive months, with a PMI of 46.6 indicating ongoing economic contraction[12][13] Fiscal Developments - Indonesia plans to impose a 1% to 5% export tax on coal starting in 2026, aiming to generate approximately 20 trillion IDR (about 1.2 billion USD) in additional revenue[17] - South Africa's economic outlook is improving, with GDP growth expectations raised for the second half of 2025, following fiscal reforms initiated in 2021[18][19] Political and Social Issues - Eight countries, including Turkey and Egypt, oppose Israel's unilateral opening of the Rafah crossing, emphasizing the need for a two-way opening to support Palestinian residents[21] - Ongoing conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has resulted in significant casualties, with over 51,200 people displaced[22][23] Credit Ratings - Fitch upgraded Ivory Coast's sovereign credit rating from BB- to BB, maintaining a stable outlook due to political stability and strong economic growth projections of 6.4% to 6.6% from 2025 to 2027[40]

智通财经APP获悉，2025年，新兴市场无视关税、贸易战和全球动荡，取得了两位数的亮眼回报，投资 者正期望明年能够再次取得同样的成绩。 多年来，新兴市场各国政府和央行做出了艰难的政策选择，这使得曾经风险较高的新兴市场资产在美国 和欧洲的政治经济阴云以及日益加剧的地缘政治分裂面前显得稳固。 Manulife Investment Management董事总经理Elina Theodorakopoulou表示："今年有很多利好因素可以延 续到明年，尤其是考虑到今年的表现有多么出色和辉煌。"Theodorakopoulou强调了"良好的政策和好运 的结合"。 新的避险天堂? 投资者表示，尽管美联储受到抨击，但新兴市场央行展现出了独立性和稳健的政策制定能力。 M&G新兴市场债务主管Charles de Quinsonas表示："就货币政策而言，新兴市场的信誉度可能达到了前 所未有的高度。实际上，他们甚至比美联储更早降息，但他们并没有过度降息，这有助于货币保持相当 强的韧性。" 审慎的货币政策帮助新兴市场货币跑赢大盘，而美元则持续疲软。这极大地激发了投资者对新兴市场本 币债券的兴趣，今年以来，这类债券的回报率约为18% ...

据哥伦比亚《时代报》12月16日报道，国际评级机构惠誉将哥主权信用评 级从 BB+ 下调至 BB，评级展望为稳定。惠誉表示，此举主要源于该国财政赤 字长期处于高位，导致政府债务占GDP比重在中期内持续上升，并进一步偏离 同类国家平均水平。惠誉指出，哥缺乏可信的财政约束机制，财政支出刚性较 强，加之在2026年大选后，无论执政结果如何，政府在推动增收措施方面都可 能面临政治限制，这将削弱财政前景。不过，惠誉也强调，哥评级仍受益于其 长期保持宏观和金融稳定的记录，以及独立的中央银行体系。与此同时，评级 受限因素包括高财政赤字、债务水平上升、利息负担沉重以及对大宗商品的高 度依赖。 （原标题：惠誉下调哥伦比亚主权信用评级） ...

（原标题：惠誉上调科特迪瓦主权信用评级至BB级） 当地媒体KOACI报道，12月13日，科特迪瓦财政部与预算部联合发布公告，信用评级机构惠誉国 际（Fitch Ratings）将该国长期外币主权信用评级由BB-上调至BB级，展望维持"稳定"。此次调整使科 特迪瓦继续保持撒哈拉以南非洲地区第二高的信用评级，距离"投资级"仅差两级。惠誉指出，此次直接 上调评级而未先行调整展望，反映出其对科特迪瓦政治稳定、经济多元化发展、严格预算控制及公共债 务管理能力的高度认可。同时，穆迪和标普的最新评级也与这一评估一致。尽管区域局势存在不确定 性，科特迪瓦仍被视为国际投资者的优选目的地。政府表示，这归功于总统瓦塔拉领导下的结构性改革 成果，并承诺将继续推进审慎的宏观经济政策，促进包容性与可持续增长。 ...

Group 1 - DBS Bank expects improvement in Indonesia's economy in Q4 2025, raising the 2026 growth forecast due to potential easing policies [1] - Barclays no longer predicts a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India in December, maintaining a neutral stance on interest rates, while suggesting that Indian economic growth may have peaked [2] - Goldman Sachs indicates a high likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, driven by a weak labor market [4] Group 2 - UOB highlights strong GDP performance in India's second fiscal quarter, reducing the necessity for a rate cut, and raises the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 6.9% to 7.3% [1][2] - CBI criticizes the UK Chancellor's £26 billion tax increase plan, stating it burdens businesses and fails to address high energy costs, leading to a decline in the service sector's business activity index [2] - S&P Global notes that South Korea's manufacturing PMI remains below the growth threshold, reflecting domestic economic weakness and external pressures, although demand from Asian countries partially offsets declines from the US and Japan [2] Group 3 - Danske Bank predicts that Italian government bonds will continue to outperform in the Eurozone market, benefiting from potential credit rating upgrades and inclusion in more benchmark indices [3] - Moody's states that the UK's recent budget aligns with its Aa3 rating, although it warns of execution risks in fiscal consolidation efforts [3] - The European fixed income head at Invesco suggests that France may face multiple sovereign credit rating downgrades due to political instability ahead of the 2027 presidential election [3]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's Investors Service is set to review Italy's sovereign credit rating on November 22, potentially marking the first upgrade in nearly 23 years, with the last upgrade occurring in May 2002 [1] Group 1: Current Rating and Outlook - Moody's currently rates Italy at Baa3, the lowest tier of investment grade, and upgraded the outlook from "stable" to "positive" in May 2023 due to stronger-than-expected fiscal performance and a more stable political environment [1] - The Italian government has revised its budget deficit target for 2025 down to 3% of GDP, a year earlier than previously planned, signaling enhanced fiscal sustainability [1] Group 2: Debt and Fiscal Measures - Italy's public debt remains high, projected to reach €3.05 trillion by the end of 2024, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 134.9%, the second highest in the Eurozone after Greece [3] - The government is implementing measures to alleviate debt pressure, including securing approximately €200 billion in low-cost long-term funding for infrastructure, green transition, and digital reforms [3] - Interest payments on government debt are expected to account for 3.9% of GDP in 2025, down from 6.8% in 2023, but still represent a significant fiscal burden [3] Group 3: Economic Growth and Risks - Despite improvements in Italy's economic outlook, growth remains sluggish, with GDP growth expected to be only 1.2% in 2025 [4] - Potential U.S. tariff policies could negatively impact Italian exports, potentially leading to a 0.5% loss in GDP by 2026 [4] - Long-term interest rates are under upward pressure, which may increase refinancing costs for Italian government debt, exacerbating the debt burden [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nepal has maintained its sovereign credit rating at "BB-" for the second consecutive year, with a stable outlook, despite facing multiple challenges such as social and political turmoil, natural disasters, and global economic slowdown [1] Economic Indicators - The rating reflects Nepal's relatively low government and external debt levels, along with sufficient external liquidity and a robust medium-term growth outlook supported by the hydropower industry [1] Political Landscape - Political uncertainty remains a concern that could affect future ratings, despite the temporary government restoring domestic order and announcing elections for March 5, 2026 [1] Future Developments - Nepal will initiate its own sovereign credit rating process starting in 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - S&P Global Ratings has confirmed Thailand's sovereign credit ratings, indicating a stable outlook for the country's long-term and short-term foreign and local currency ratings [1] Rating Summary - Long-term foreign currency rating is confirmed at "BBB+" [1] - Short-term foreign currency rating is confirmed at "A-2" [1] - Long-term local currency rating is confirmed at "A-" [1] - Short-term local currency rating is confirmed at "A-2" [1] - The long-term rating outlook is stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. upgraded the sovereign credit rating of the Republic of Ireland from A+ to AA- with a stable outlook [1] Group 1 - The upgrade reflects improved creditworthiness and economic stability of Ireland [1] - The stable outlook indicates that the rating is expected to remain unchanged in the near term [1]

Economic Impact - The recent government shutdown resulted in an economic loss of $18 billion, with nearly half of this amount, approximately $9 billion, being irreversible [3][4][6] - The shutdown led to the suspension of federal employees and contractors, causing a direct halt in productivity and economic activity [4][6] - Government services such as visa approvals and trade regulations were interrupted, negatively impacting business operations and investment decisions [6][12] Consumer and Business Confidence - The uncertainty caused by the shutdown led to reduced consumer spending and investment, further exacerbating economic downturn pressures [6][12] - Small businesses and local economies, particularly those reliant on government contracts or nearby federal employees, experienced significant revenue declines during the shutdown [15][12] Data Collection and Policy Implications - The interruption of key economic data collection during the shutdown hindered the federal government and the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed policy decisions [7][9] - The inability to assess the current economic state accurately may lead to delayed or inappropriate monetary policy responses, worsening the economic situation [9][11] Long-term Consequences - The shutdown highlighted systemic governance issues within the U.S. political system, raising concerns about the stability of the country's credit rating and overall economic governance [11][19] - Frequent shutdowns could lead to a loss of trust among international investors, potentially affecting U.S. debt rates and the dollar's value [11][21]