来源：申万宏观·赵伟团队 文| 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人| 贾东旭 元旦后，多地密集召开"新年第一会"，擘画全年重点工作，地区侧重有何不同，2026年初经济潜在空间几何，如何跟踪研判？本文分析，可供 参考。 一、热点思考：新年第一会，谁在抢跑？ （一）中央如何靠前发力，筑牢年初经济稳定基础？政府投资前置加码，以旧换新政策续接 政府投资前置加码，国家发改委已下达2026年提前批"两重"建设项目清单及中央预算内投资，合计2950亿元。相较2025年提前批，本次新增950 亿元，其中"两重"项目资金保障力度加大，规模达2200亿元，重点投向城市地下管网、高标准农田等领域；中央预算内投资超750亿元，重点覆 盖城市更新、水利等领域。资金前置部署，或助力一季度投资"止跌回稳"。 以旧换新政策续接更精准，国家发改委、财政部提前10天（较2025年初）下达首批625亿元超长期特别国债资金支持该政策。汽车改定额补贴为 比例补贴，新增2019年前注册新能源车的报废要求；家电精简至6类1级能效补贴，比例降至15%（单件上限1500元）；数码新增智能眼镜补 贴。全国统一领域标准不变，地方可自主确定配套领域政策。 动能培育持续赋 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the early meetings held by various regions after New Year's Day to outline key work for the year, highlighting differences in regional focus and potential economic space in early 2026 [1]. Group 1: Central Government Initiatives - The central government has increased investment ahead of schedule, with the National Development and Reform Commission issuing a list of early construction projects for 2026, totaling 295 billion yuan, an increase of 95 billion yuan compared to 2025 [2][9]. - The "two heavy" projects will receive 220 billion yuan, focusing on urban underground pipelines and high-standard farmland, while central budget investments exceed 75 billion yuan, targeting urban renewal and water conservancy [2][9]. - The "old-for-new" policy has been refined, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in special bonds issued 10 days earlier than in 2025, supporting consumer goods replacement [2][12]. Group 2: Local Government Responses - Many regions have moved their "New Year First Meetings" to after New Year's Day, emphasizing early initiation of key work for the year, contrasting with 2025 when most meetings were held after the Spring Festival [4][16]. - Regions like Shanghai and Fujian focus on optimizing the business environment and boosting confidence in the private economy, with specific measures to eliminate market entry barriers and address overdue payments [4][19]. - Core cities such as Hubei, Nanjing, and Suzhou are concentrating on cultivating new productivity, while Zhejiang and Henan are focusing on stabilizing investment to support growth [4][19]. Group 3: Economic Potential and Tracking Indicators - The postponement of the Spring Festival by 19 days in 2026 creates a pattern of "heavy production and investment in January, heavy consumption in February," aligning with the central government's emphasis on early economic work [5][22]. - Since 2019, the proportion of actual GDP in the first quarter has increased by an average of 0.1 percentage points annually, indicating the importance of early economic performance [5][26]. - The fiscal front is accelerating, with local government debt issuance in January expected to increase by approximately 340 billion yuan compared to the previous year, with 24 provinces planning to issue 257.78 billion yuan in new debt [7][35].