政治光谱右移

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欧洲专题系列2:产业空心化与政治光谱右移
NORTHEAST SECURITIES· 2025-09-02 07:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Europe's decline is a chronic process, with industrial hollowing - out being a representative phenomenon, which is the result of the continuous decline of European manufacturing competitiveness and is further amplified by the global industrial chain reconstruction [1][13]. - The direct cause of European industrial hollowing - out is the energy crisis and cost imbalance, while the deeper reason is the long - term "capital laziness, lack of enterprise, and poor financing environment for technology companies", leading to Europe missing technological revolutions [13]. - The exhaustion of innovation momentum has made Europe lag behind in disruptive technology fields, and industrial hollowing - out has caused social chain reactions, leading to a right - shift in the political spectrum [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 European Different Regions' Pillar Industries - Northern Europe focuses on green technology and high - value - added industries, with leading positions in clean energy and high - end manufacturing [15]. - Western Europe is dominated by advanced manufacturing and high - end services, with strengths in aerospace, semiconductors, finance, and luxury industries [16][17]. - Central Europe is a manufacturing cluster base, especially Germany in high - end and precision manufacturing, and also has some mid - low - end manufacturing [17]. - Southern Europe relies on tourism and agriculture, with Italy and Spain having relatively complete manufacturing systems [18]. - Eastern Europe is resource - driven and has received some industrial transfers, but also faces geopolitical challenges [18]. - Northern, Western, and Central Europe have better economic development and more high - end pillar industries, while Eastern and Southern Europe are relatively backward [19]. 3.2 European Industrial Transfer and Industrial Hollowing - out Trend - The industrial hollowing - out is manifested in the decline of the manufacturing share in GDP, the transfer of production lines, and the loss of control over key industrial chain links [13]. - Taking the automotive industry as an example, the global automotive industry chain has gone through four stages of transfer, and European automotive industry's market share has declined since 2013 [35][36]. - The machinery manufacturing industry has also experienced three stages of transfer, and European industrial transfer is mostly in the third or fourth round and is difficult to reverse [42][58]. 3.3 European Political Spectrum Right - shift and Policy Helplessness - Central and Western European economies are more right - leaning, corresponding to economically strong countries and regions with industrial losses [59]. - From 2018 to 2025, the European political spectrum has shifted significantly to the right, with an increase in the average value from 0.97 to 1.48 [62]. - The right - shift is due to traditional parties' inability to solve economic and social problems, but right - wing parties' solutions cannot address the core issues [66].