政策利率锚定效果

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宝城期货国债期货早报-20250730
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 01:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, with an overall view of oscillation due to the rising risk appetite in the stock market and the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. - For the main varieties of TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term is within a week, the medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillate, oscillate, and oscillate weakly respectively, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is the rising risk appetite in the stock market and the stock - bond seesaw effect [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday. Due to the mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors, the risk appetite in the stock market rose rapidly, and the stock - bond seesaw effect emerged, causing treasury bond futures to face short - term pressure. However, the continuous rise of market interest rates will trigger the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, limiting the upward space of market interest rates and the downward space of treasury bond futures. From a macro - policy perspective, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, future monetary policy will remain relatively loose, and there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5].