Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2606 is to oscillate, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - The intraday view of major varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, the upward and downward space of Treasury bonds is limited, and they are mainly in an interval oscillatory consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures and Index Futures Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | Oscillate | Oscillate | Bullish | Oscillatory consolidation | The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] | Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures and Index Futures Sector - Variety: TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation [5]. - Core logic: Treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down recently but remains highly uncertain, which suppresses the risk appetite of risk assets and increases the hedging investment demand for Treasury bonds. In the long - term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and future monetary policy is expected to be loose. Currently, domestic macro - economic indicators are resilient, and policy is more inclined to structural easing. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - and medium - term outlook for TL2606 is "sideways", and the intraday view is "bullish". The overall view is "sideways consolidation". The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the overall reference view is "sideways consolidation". Due to factors such as the cooling of Middle - East geopolitical risks, the potential for global central bank monetary easing, and strong domestic macroeconomic indicators with a preference for structural policy easing, the short - term outlook for Treasury bond futures is sideways consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | Sideways | Sideways | Bullish | Sideways consolidation | Low possibility of comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Bullish - **Medium - term View**: Sideways - **Reference View**: Sideways consolidation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures showed narrow - range sideways consolidation yesterday. The US government proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan on March 24th, indicating a cooling of Middle - East geopolitical risks, but the final result is highly uncertain. The market focuses on the navigation situation of the Strait of Hormuz. Resumed navigation could ease the global energy supply crisis and reduce inflation risks, creating room for global central bank monetary easing. However, domestic macroeconomic indicators are resilient, and the policy side prefers structural easing, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low. Thus, Treasury bond futures face both upward pressure and downward support, and will be in a sideways consolidation range in the short term [5]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, geopolitical factors may push up inflation, and the tightening of overseas central bank policies may suppress the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2606 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is bullish, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures continued to oscillate and consolidate yesterday. The Middle East geopolitical crisis repeatedly disturbs market sentiment. Due to weak inflation data and insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment is loose, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, supporting Treasury bond futures. But geopolitical factors may push up inflation, and the tightening of overseas central bank policies may suppress the upward momentum. The domestic macro - economic indicators are resilient, and the policy is more inclined to structural easing. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2606 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "bullish", with an overall view of "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure on the upside and support on the downside, and they will mainly conduct range - bound and oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2606, the short - term view (within one week) is "oscillation", the medium - term view (two weeks to one month) is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the overall view is "oscillatory consolidation". The key reason is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The central bank announced that the March LPR quote remained unchanged, which is the 10th consecutive month of unchanged quotes since the interest rate cut in May last year. This indicates that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term monetary policy is low because macroeconomic indicators are highly resilient and the policy side prefers structural easing. With the continuous escalation of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, the risk of global energy supply shortages and the risk of supply chain disruptions for key raw materials have increased, leading to a rise in the risk of a weakening global macro - economy. Considering the existing problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, in order to stabilize economic growth and promote a reasonable recovery of prices, the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, and the possibility of an interest rate hike is low [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and in the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly undergo range - bound consolidation [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2606 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly in an oscillatory manner yesterday. Domestically, there is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and the inflation level is still low. To stabilize economic growth and promote a reasonable recovery of prices, the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. From the perspective of the recent Middle East geopolitical crisis, the risk of its long - term development has increased, and the risk of global economic stagflation has risen, which restricts the monetary easing policies of global central banks, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the stock index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the domestic demand problem persists and the price level is low, so the future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited due to the increasing risk of long - term geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and the rising risk of global economic stagflation, which restrains the global central banks' monetary easing policies. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2606, the short - term view is "oscillate", the medium - term view is "oscillate", the intraday view is "bullish", and the view reference is "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillate", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures rebounded slightly yesterday. Due to the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand and the low price level, the future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. As Treasury bond futures have adjusted to near the previous low, the upward momentum of the Treasury bond maturity yield is insufficient due to the anchoring effect of the policy interest rate, and Treasury bond futures rebounded from the bottom. However, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is also relatively limited recently because the increasing risk of long - term geopolitical crisis in the Middle East and the rising risk of global economic stagflation restrain the global central banks' monetary easing policies. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The main reason is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The external situation is that the Middle East geopolitical situation is unclear, the risk of the geopolitical crisis becoming long - term has increased, causing concerns about global economic stagflation. Domestically, there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts. However, the current macro - economy has strong resilience, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank in the short term is low. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly be in a range of oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2606, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, with a view of oscillatory consolidation, and the core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded slightly yesterday. Externally, the Middle East geopolitical situation is unclear, and the risk of the geopolitical crisis becoming long - term has increased, causing concerns about global economic stagflation. Domestically, there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts. However, the current macro - economy has strong resilience, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank in the short term is low [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation. The short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, TS is weak, and the medium - term view is shock, with a reference view of shock consolidation. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly be in a range of shock consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2606, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, and the view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, TS is weak, and the medium - term view is shock, with a reference view of shock consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. The continuous escalation of the Middle East geopolitical crisis, with blocked oil transportation and production cuts in the Middle East, has led to a sharp rise in global oil prices, increasing the risk of global stagflation and hindering the central bank's monetary easing rhythm. China's monetary policy is mainly based on its own economic fundamentals. With mild inflation indicators and insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. However, due to the expected increase in imported inflation caused by the sharp rise in oil prices, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak", with a reference view of "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that on one hand, due to the existing problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose and there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut; on the other hand, the policy side focuses on structural easing, and the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low. With the market digesting the impact of the Middle East geopolitical crisis, the unilateral driving force of Treasury bond futures is weak. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2606 variety, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "weak", with a view of "oscillation and consolidation", and the core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, the future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose with an interest - rate - cut expectation, but the policy side focuses on structural easing, and the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low. After the market digests the impact of the Middle East geopolitical crisis, the unilateral driving force of Treasury bond futures is weak, so they will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Group 1: Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The short - term view of TL2606 is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday view is "weakening", with an overall view of "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Group 2: Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating" [5]. - The core logic is that yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The government work report of the Two Sessions pointed out that in 2026, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, and various policy tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Due to the existing problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts. However, the policy preference is expected to be mainly structurally loose, and the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low. The upward momentum and downward space of treasury bond futures are both limited. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].