投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 10 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 中长期降息预期仍存，短期全面 降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 观点参考 观点参考 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：9 月 30 日，国债期货均震荡整 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 9 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 中长期降息预期仍存，短期全面 降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理，小幅下跌。政策面，央行三季度例会会提出"建议加强货币政 策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融形势和 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2512 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - and medium - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the financial futures stock index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the Treasury bond futures were in narrow - range oscillation yesterday. At the current relatively low level, the short - term upward momentum and downward space are both limited. The short - term possibility of policy interest rate cuts is low, reducing the upward momentum, while the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand remains, and the Fed's rate cut reduces RMB exchange - rate pressure, increasing the possibility of a future loose monetary policy, which strongly supports the Treasury bond futures [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is the co - existence of long - and medium - term interest rate cut expectations and low short - term comprehensive interest rate cut possibility [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The futures were in narrow - range oscillation yesterday. At the current low level, short - term upward and downward movements are restricted. Short - term policy interest rate cuts are unlikely, weakening upward momentum, while domestic demand issues and the Fed's rate cut increase the chance of future loose monetary policy, supporting the futures [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report believes that the medium - and long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low. The treasury bond futures are expected to be in low - level volatile consolidation in the short term [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock and weakening", and the overall view is "shock". The core logic is that the medium - and long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "shock and weakening", the medium - term view is "shock", and the reference view is "shock". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday. The possibility of a short - term policy interest rate cut is low, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has subsided, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is weak. In the medium and long term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the Fed's interest rate cut has greatly reduced the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, so future monetary policy is likely to be loose [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that Treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term, with both upward and downward pressures. There is potential for medium - to long - term interest rate cuts, but the possibility of an immediate full - scale rate cut is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "sideways - bullish", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is that there are still medium - to long - term expectations of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term full - scale rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "sideways - bullish", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". - The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. Although the September LPR remained unchanged, there is still potential for medium - to long - term interest rate cuts. The weak credit data in August, the marginal slowdown in consumption growth, and the weak inflation data have increased the expectation of macro - policies to stabilize demand in the fourth quarter. With the Fed's rate cut in September and two more expected cuts this year, there is still an expectation of monetary easing in the future, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium - to long - term. - However, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. Firstly, there is no high need for an immediate full - scale rate cut, which needs to be coordinated with fiscal policies. Secondly, the stock - bond seesaw effect suppresses the demand for Treasury bonds [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile, with an overall view of volatility. The core logic is that there is still a long - term expectation of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. The overall situation of treasury bond futures is that there is pressure above and support below, and they will mainly be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts remains, while the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures were all volatile and declined. According to the macro - economic data in August, credit data was weak, the marginal consumption growth rate decreased, and inflation data was weak, increasing the expectation of stable demand from macro - policies in the fourth quarter. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, shifting its focus from "controlling inflation" to "stabilizing employment". The external monetary environment turning loose weakens the constraints on the RMB exchange rate, and the expectation of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the fourth quarter still exists. However, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low. As treasury bond futures have rebounded from the previous bottom, the implied expectation of interest rate cuts has been reflected, and the short - term rebound space is limited [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and overall reference viewpoints for TL2512 are all "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, bond futures will mainly experience low - level oscillation and consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and overall reference viewpoints are "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that although there is still a long - term expectation of interest rate cuts, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, bond futures oscillated and sorted, with a slight rebound throughout the day. The newly released credit data was weak, and the marginal consumption growth rate declined, leading to an increase in the market's expectation of loose policies in the fourth quarter, and the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists [5]. - Currently, bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market. Since the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is not high, the upward space for bond futures is limited [5]. - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, and the capital side suppresses the demand for bonds. The year - on - year increase in non - bank deposit data from July to August indicates the "stock - bond seesaw" effect [5]. - In general, bond futures will mainly experience low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory view due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1] - The intraday view of financial futures index stock sectors (TL, T, TF, TS) is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly conduct low - level oscillatory consolidation [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2512, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are based on the situation that long - term interest rate cut expectations still exist while the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - Last Friday, treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. 2 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined, while 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures oscillated and rose [5] - Treasury bond futures are mainly affected by monetary policy expectations and the risk appetite of the stock market [5] - In the long run, there are still expectations of interest rate cuts, but in the short term, the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is not strong because the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts is not high [5] - The inflation data in August was still weak. The policy side will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand to promote a moderate rebound in inflation. It is expected that fiscal policies will be intensified in the fourth quarter, which will pose supply - side pressure on treasury bonds [5] - The risk appetite of the stock market is at a high level, siphoning bond - buying funds and suppressing the demand side of treasury bonds, showing the stock - bond seesaw effect [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for TL2512 are "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the weak side". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts remains, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". It is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly undergo low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the weak side", and the reference view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the long - term expectation of interest rate cuts remains, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, TS is "oscillation on the weak side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, Treasury bond futures maintained low - level oscillation and consolidation. Today, the stock market rose unilaterally, and the recovery of stock market risk appetite suppressed the bond market. Inflation data is still weak, and subsequent policy - makers will continue to introduce policies to stabilize demand to promote a moderate recovery of inflation. It is expected that fiscal policies will be strengthened in the fourth quarter, which will put pressure on the supply side of Treasury bonds. Since there is no need for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, the downward space for market interest rates is limited, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. In general, Treasury bond futures are expected to mainly undergo low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, with an overall oscillatory outlook. The core logic is that there are still medium - to - long - term expectations for interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. Yesterday, bond futures oscillated throughout the day. Due to the recent short - term adjustment in the stock market, risk - aversion sentiment increased, and the market interest rate's upward space is limited under the anchoring effect of the policy interest rate, so bond futures rebounded from the bottom. However, there is insufficient need for a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut, and the downward space of the short - term market interest rate is limited, so the upward momentum of bond futures may be insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, the future monetary policy environment is generally loose, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas, the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate has greatly weakened, so there is still room for interest rate cuts in the future, and bond futures are more likely to rise in the medium - to - long - term. In general, bond futures will mainly oscillate in the short - term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weakly oscillatory, and the overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is the co - existence of medium - to - long - term interest rate cut expectations and low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that bond futures oscillated yesterday. The short - term stock market adjustment increased risk - aversion sentiment, and the policy interest rate limited the upward space of the market interest rate, leading to a rebound of bond futures. But short - term interest rate cut needs are insufficient, limiting the downward space of market interest rates and the upward momentum of bond futures. Attention should be paid to the bond issuance rhythm of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank's bond trading operations after the second meeting of the joint working group. In the medium - to - long - term, the loose monetary policy and the weakening RMB depreciation pressure due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut leave room for interest rate cuts, increasing the possibility of bond futures rising [5].