投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡回调。由于 2 月 LPR 保持不变，短期内央行全面降息的预期回落， 结合财政政策的结构性倾斜，央行货币政策侧重于结构性宽松。叠加假期流动性回流，国债期货上行 动能有所减弱。中长期来看，宏观经济指标有所走弱说明内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来降息预 期仍存，因此国债期货具有较强支 ...

宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。中长期来看，宏观经济指标有所走弱说明内需有效需求不足的 问题仍存，未来降息预期仍存，加上大宗商品与权益市场波动加剧，国债投资需求有所上升，国债期 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weakening", with an overall view of "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The main reason for the weakening of the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is that as the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds matures and falls to around 1.8%, and the liquidity tightens approaching the Spring Festival, the willingness of funds to take profits increases. Although the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low, there are still medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectations. Overall, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the view is "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is the low possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The upward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakens due to the 10 - year Treasury bond yield falling to around 1.8% and approaching Spring Festival liquidity tightness. There are still medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectations despite the low short - term possibility. Overall, Treasury bond futures will be in short - term oscillatory consolidation [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The main reason is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation in the short term and the central bank's structural interest rate cut policy, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, limiting the upward space of Treasury bond futures. With the 10 - year Treasury bond yield falling to around 1.8% and the approaching Spring Festival holiday leading to tightened liquidity, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakens. In the long - term, the latest macro - economic indicators are weak, and there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, so the expectation of future interest rate cuts still exists, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the central bank's structural interest rate cut policy limit the upward space of Treasury bond futures in the short term. As the 10 - year Treasury bond yield falls to around 1.8% and liquidity tightens approaching the Spring Festival, the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakens. In the long - term, weak macro - economic indicators and insufficient effective demand keep the expectation of future interest rate cuts, providing support for Treasury bond futures. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the risk - aversion sentiment boosts the investment demand for national debt [1]. - The intraday view of TL, T, TF, and TS is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Due to the intensified fluctuations in the commodity and equity markets, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased the investment demand for national debt. In the long - term, the weakening of macro - economic indicators indicates insufficient domestic demand, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts, providing strong support for national debt futures. However, in the short - term, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has slowed down, and the central bank's monetary easing policy mainly focuses on structural interest rate cuts, so the necessity of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is not strong, and the upward space for national debt futures is limited. Overall, national debt futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is bullish, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the risk - aversion sentiment boosts the investment demand for national debt [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that last Friday, national debt futures oscillated and rebounded slightly. The risk - aversion sentiment due to market fluctuations boosts the investment demand for national debt. In the long - term, weak macro - economic indicators lead to expectations of interest rate cuts, providing support for national debt futures. In the short - term, the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the central bank's structural interest rate cut policy limit the upward space of national debt futures, so they will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short - term [5].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to the decreased possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall view is shock consolidation. Although the latest macroeconomic indicators are weak, there is a need for a loose monetary and credit environment and the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, and the demand for bond investment is boosted by risk - aversion. However, due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, so the bond futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, and the view reference is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures rebounded yesterday. The weakening of macroeconomic indicators implies concerns in the demand side, so there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts and strong support for bond futures. The intensified disturbance of the Fed's monetary policy expectation and the volatility of silver also boost the demand for bond investment. But due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the upward momentum of bond futures is insufficient [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report predicts that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. Although the upward momentum is insufficient due to the low possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts in the short - term, there is still strong support because of the expected loose monetary and credit environment in the future [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the overall view is "fluctuation and consolidation" with the core logic being the reduced possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts in the short - term [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties TL, T, TF, and TS have an intraday view of "weakening" and a medium - term view of "fluctuation", with a reference view of "fluctuation and consolidation". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. With the announcement of the new Fed Chairman candidate, the expectation of a hawkish shift in Fed monetary policy has increased. After the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short - term is low, weakening the upward momentum. However, macroeconomic indicators have weakened, there is still a problem of insufficient effective demand, the future monetary and credit environment will remain loose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2603 is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak - biased", and the overall view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak - biased", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation consolidation". The core logic is that although the manufacturing PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating insufficient effective demand and a future loose monetary and credit environment that provides strong support for Treasury bond futures, due to the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the increasing expectation of the Fed's delayed interest rate cut, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, so Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weak - biased | Oscillation consolidation | The possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weak - biased - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation consolidation - **Core Logic**: The Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated yesterday. The manufacturing PMI in January returned to the contraction range, indicating insufficient effective demand, which is consistent with the weak performance of December's consumption, investment, and credit data. This means that the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, considering the central bank's structural interest rate cut in January and the increasing expectation of the Fed's delayed interest rate cut, the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut by the central bank is low, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market is expected to continue the volatile pattern and it is difficult to form a unilateral trend. The current market has both long and short factors. On one hand, institutional allocation demand and the risk - hedging property of RMB assets support the market, especially for ultra - long - term varieties. On the other hand, stock market performance, policy expectations, and changes in supply - demand relations will jointly affect market fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, the bond market trend depends on the sustainability of economic recovery, the actual strength of fiscal policy, and the subsequent direction of monetary policy. If economic data such as inflation continues to pick up and more regions are able to expand their balance sheets after debt resolution, the possibility of interest rates rising after reaching the bottom will increase [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - Last week, the Treasury bond futures market showed differentiation between long and short ends. The ultra - long - end center slowly declined with the TL main contract down 0.34% for the week, the 10 - year main contract steadily rose slightly with a weekly gain of about 0.11%, and the medium - and short - term maturities changed little. Market fluctuations were mainly in equities and commodities. The turning point of risk assets on Friday was due to factors like the Iranian situation, new Fed candidates, US policy shutdown risk, and risks in the US stock market during the earnings season. Domestic bonds were less affected by other major asset classes. The central bank continuously released liquidity through reverse repurchase, with a total of 176.15 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations for the week, achieving a net injection after offsetting maturities. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate remained stable at 1.40%, and the weighted average DR007 rate fluctuated around the policy rate, keeping the funds reasonably abundant. The marginal weakness of the ultra - long end might be due to some long - position funds taking profits at the beginning of the week, causing the TL2603 contract to correct. However, the long - term allocation demand from the "good start" dividend - insurance sales of insurance institutions and the inflow of foreign risk - hedging funds supported the price to stabilize around 112 yuan [4] 3.2 Liquidity Tracking - The content mainly presents various charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), deposit - based pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rate, bond - pledged repurchase rate, R007&DR007 spread and trading volume, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate, excess reserve ratio, LPR, deposit reserve ratio, Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads. But there is no specific text summary of these data [8][9][11] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The content shows various indicators of Treasury bond futures arbitrage, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts in the current quarter. But there is no specific text analysis of these indicators [38][41][48]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to the reduced possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term [1] - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. In the short term, the upward and downward drivers of treasury bond futures are both weak, mainly in a range of shock consolidation. On one hand, the macro - economic data in December weakened, showing insufficient effective domestic demand, so the future monetary and credit environment is relatively loose, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. On the other hand, the central bank implemented a structural interest rate cut in January, indicating that structural monetary policy is the central bank's first choice, and the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, with a view of shock consolidation, and the core logic is the reduced possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. In the short term, treasury bond futures are in shock consolidation. The upward and downward drivers are weak. The weak December macro - economic data provides support due to loose future monetary and credit environment, while the January structural interest rate cut reduces the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut and the upward momentum [5]