投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 全面降息可能性下降，加上股市 风险偏好上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各国债期货均震荡整理，小幅下跌。从货币政策角度看，8 月 LPR 维持不变，央行 强调未来要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，重点在结构性宽松 ...

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of government bond futures is that they will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased. The TL2509 variety is expected to oscillate in the short and medium - term and show a slightly weaker oscillation trend during the day [1][5] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is slightly weaker oscillation, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased, and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1] Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is slightly weaker oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that government bond futures oscillated and slightly rebounded yesterday. As market interest rates continue to rise, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is gradually emerging, limiting the upward space of market interest rates, which means government bond futures have strong support. From the perspective of monetary policy, the focus of implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the future is on structural loosening, and the possibility of comprehensive loosening has decreased. From the perspective of capital preference, the risk appetite in the stock market has continued to rise recently, and the profit - making effect in the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for buying government bonds [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 震荡 | 全面降息可能性下降，加上股市 风险偏好上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 21 日） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡小幅下跌。昨日央行公布了 8 月 LPR 利率，维持不变，符 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term view of treasury bond futures is weak - side oscillation, and the medium - term view is oscillation. The overall view is oscillation. The reason is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillation, and the intraday view is weak - side oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak - side oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded slightly in oscillation yesterday. On one hand, future policy will focus on structural easing, and the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report emphasizes "refinement" and "structure", indicating that future monetary policy will introduce structural easing policies in areas such as inclusive small and micro financial services, financial support for scientific and technological innovation, and financial support for consumption promotion. On the other hand, the risk appetite of the stock market has been rising recently, and the money - making effect of the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for buying treasury bonds. However, due to the continuous recovery of market interest rates, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is gradually emerging, and the room for further increase in market interest rates is limited. In general, treasury bond futures will operate in a weak - side oscillation in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for TL2509 is oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, the intraday is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is oscillation due to the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillation. In the short term, bond futures will mainly oscillate due to the low possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut, the rising risk appetite in the stock market, and the resulting inhibition of bond - buying demand [5]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 - For the TL2509 variety, short - term (within a week): oscillation; medium - term (two weeks to one month): oscillation; intraday: weakly oscillating; overall view: oscillation. The core logic is the decreased possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that although the medium - and long - term monetary policy is supportive and the possibility of a policy interest rate increase is low, the macro - economy shows strong resilience, external risk factors are temporarily alleviated, and the central bank's loan discount policy for the consumption field makes the short - term possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut low. The rising risk appetite in the stock market leads to a shift of funds from bonds to stocks, suppressing the demand for buying bonds [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 货币政策偏向结构性宽松 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡整理，小幅下跌。从宏观基本面的角度来看，中长期货币政策偏向 支持性，利率上升的可能性较低，国债中长期向上的逻辑较为牢靠。不过，目前宏观经济表现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, with an overall view of oscillation due to the monetary policy leaning towards structural easing [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is to oscillate with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the overall reference view is to oscillate. In the short term, bond futures will mainly be in an oscillatory consolidation state [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2509, short - term: oscillate; medium - term: oscillate; intraday: oscillate with a slight upward bias; overall view: oscillate. The core logic is that the monetary policy leans towards structural easing [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, intraday view: oscillate with a slight upward bias; medium - term view: oscillate; reference view: oscillate. The core logic is that bond futures oscillated and closed slightly higher the previous day. As market interest rates are close to policy rates, the upward space for market interest rates is limited, providing strong support at the bottom of bond futures. In the long - term, the monetary policy is supportive, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, so the long - term upward logic of bonds is solid. In the short term, the macro - economy showed strong resilience in the first half of the year, and external risk factors have temporarily eased, so the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low. The central bank and the Ministry of Finance jointly introduced two loan interest subsidy policies, which means the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has greatly decreased [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly bullish, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the overall reference view is volatile. The core logic is that bond futures oscillated and corrected yesterday. The Politburo meeting in July reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, which increased the expectation of future easing. Since August, bond futures have rebounded after hitting the bottom. Due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data in the first half of the year, the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged overseas, and the rising risk appetite in the domestic stock market, the necessity and possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term are low. However, as the market interest rate approached the policy rate at the end of July, the anchoring effect of the policy rate emerged, limiting the further rise of the market interest rate. In general, bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Catalog: Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, short - term: volatile; medium - term: volatile; intraday: slightly bullish; overall view: volatile. Core logic: There is an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. Catalog: Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, intraday view: slightly bullish; medium - term view: volatile; reference view: volatile. Core logic: Bond futures oscillated and corrected yesterday. The July Politburo meeting increased the expectation of future easing, and bond futures rebounded after hitting the bottom in August. The short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low, and the rise of the market interest rate is limited. Bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TL2509 variety is expected to be volatile in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with an intraday bias towards being volatile on the stronger side. The core logic is that there is still an expectation of loose monetary policy, but the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For major varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is volatile on the stronger side, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. The overall situation is that Treasury bond futures will mainly be in a volatile consolidation phase in the short term. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and pulled back yesterday. Since the market interest rate approached the policy rate at the end of July, the anchoring effect of the policy rate has emerged, limiting the further rise of the market interest rate. Treasury bond futures have bottomed out and rebounded since August. The rising risk appetite in the domestic stock market has led to a decline in the demand for Treasury bonds, putting short - term pressure on Treasury bond futures. However, the macro - economic data in the first half of the year showed strong resilience, and the policy side emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to further reduce the cost of real - entity financing, increasing the expectation of future loosening [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is volatile on the stronger side, and the overall view is volatile. The core logic is the expectation of loose monetary policy and low short - term interest rate cut possibility [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is volatile on the stronger side, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile. The logic includes the oscillation and pull - back of Treasury bond futures yesterday, the anchoring effect of the policy rate on the market interest rate, the bottoming - out and rebound of Treasury bond futures since August, the impact of the stock market on Treasury bond demand, and the expectation of future monetary policy loosening [5].

宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 货币政策宽松预期仍存，但短期 内降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。8 月以来，国债期货探底回升，主要是因为 7 月政治 局会议重申了未来落实适度宽松的货币政策，进一步推动实 ...