投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理，小幅反弹。宏观面来看，10 月消费、投资等经济数据均有所 走弱，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来货币政策环境偏宽松，长 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘多数高开，早盘回落，午后横向波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2512 下跌 0.31%，10 年期 T2512 下跌 0.04%，5 年期 TF2512 下跌 0.06%，2 年期 TS2512 持平。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 3750 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 2128 亿元 逆回购到期，当日净投放 1622 亿元。 2、资金市场：上周五银行间资金市场隔夜利率回落到近期低位，DR001 全天加权平 均为 1.32%，上一交易日加权平均 1.37%；DR007 全天加权平均为 1.44%，上一交易 日加权平 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开拓进取 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货延续震荡整理，不过品种间走势有所分化。当前国债期货处于震荡整理行 情，市场驱动较弱。消息面，昨日公布的 1 年期与 5 年期 LP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The current upward and downward kinetic energy of treasury bond futures is limited. On one hand, economic data such as consumption, investment, and exports have weakened, indicating insufficient domestic demand, which provides strong support for treasury bond futures in the long - term. On the other hand, there is no strong need for further policy tightening this year, and the possibility of a short - term policy interest rate cut is low, limiting the upward kinetic energy of treasury bond futures. Due to tax period factors, capital liquidity fluctuations have intensified, and market interest rates have rebounded in the short - term, with the central bank mainly conducting net injections in the open market. Overall, treasury bond futures will maintain oscillatory consolidation in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2512**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: weak; View: oscillatory consolidation; Core logic: short - term interest rate cut expectation decreases, long - term easing expectation remains [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. Intraday view: weak; Medium - term view: oscillatory; Reference view: oscillatory consolidation. Core logic: treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined yesterday. Upward and downward kinetic energy is limited. Economic data weakness supports long - term easing and treasury bond futures, but short - term policy rate cut is unlikely, and capital liquidity fluctuations and central bank net injections affect the market, resulting in short - term oscillatory consolidation [5].

◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。受益于流动性宽松、政策增量减弱、股市回调、地缘因素 避险等多方面影响，本周前两日国债期货均小幅反弹。不过目前国债期 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。近期央行公开市场净投放流动性，对国债期货价格起到一 定支撑作用 ...

宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 期货研究报告 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。由于短期内宏观经济数据仍具韧性，全面降息的紧迫性不 强，央行货币政策框架由总量扩张转为效率优化和结构 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For the TL2512 variety, it is expected to experience short - term and medium - term oscillations, with a weakening trend in the intraday period, and overall it will be in an oscillatory consolidation state. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term expectation of monetary policy easing still exists [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, the macro - economic data remains resilient, and the urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is not strong, so the upward momentum of bond futures weakens. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report indicates a low possibility of short - term monetary expansion, focusing on implementing previous policies. In the long run, due to the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, providing strong support for bond futures. Overall, bond futures will mainly be in an oscillatory consolidation state in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, the intraday trend is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has declined, while the long - term expectation of monetary policy easing still exists [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures continued to have a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation yesterday. In the short term, the macro - economic data is resilient, reducing the urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut and weakening the upward momentum of bond futures. The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy report shows a low possibility of short - term monetary expansion, focusing on implementing previous policies. In the long run, due to insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, providing strong support for bond futures. Overall, bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak. The overall view is oscillation and consolidation. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, while the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation and consolidation. In the short term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data, the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the upward space of Treasury bond futures is limited. In the long term, due to the insufficient effective domestic demand, the monetary policy is generally loose, and Treasury bond futures have strong support. Overall, Treasury bond futures will maintain an oscillatory and consolidatory state in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, the intraday is weak, with an overall view of oscillation and consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased, and the medium - and long - term expectation of monetary easing still exists [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation and consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range yesterday. As market interest rates declined, the upward space of Treasury bond futures was limited. In the short term, the strong resilience of macro - economic data reduced the necessity of comprehensive interest rate cuts. In the long term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy is generally loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures in the medium and long term [5].