Group 1: Commodity Market Impact - The commodity market is experiencing significant differentiation due to the dual effects of weakened dollar credit and deteriorating economic expectations, alongside the supply-demand fundamentals of different commodities [1][2] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are showing strong safe-haven characteristics, with global central banks continuing robust gold purchases, exceeding 1,000 tons annually since 2022, compared to an average of 500 tons from 2008 to 2022 [1] - The energy market is caught in a tug-of-war, with bearish factors primarily stemming from supply-side pressures, including OPEC+ production increases and rising Russian oil exports, while demand expectations are dampened by renewed global trade tensions [2] Group 2: Agricultural and Industrial Metals - The agricultural sector is facing challenges due to a "data vacuum" and weak demand, with the USDA halting key reports on crops like soybeans and corn, exacerbated by China not purchasing U.S. soybeans this year [2] - The industrial metals market is experiencing a "dollar-driven" upward trend, particularly in copper prices, which are inversely correlated with the dollar index, although caution remains regarding the sustainability of this price increase due to weak manufacturing PMI [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The current government shutdown is eroding overall market confidence and causing significant differentiation across sectors, reflecting the political dynamics in asset price movements [3] - The shutdown raises concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. credit system, especially given the backdrop of $36 trillion in debt, with interest payments consuming 15% of federal revenue, potentially leading to a sell-off of dollar assets [5] - International capital flows and currency dynamics are shifting, with emerging markets showing varied responses; Southeast Asian markets reliant on dollar financing are declining, while commodity-exporting countries are seeing stock market gains [6] Group 4: Long-term Structural Changes - The market turbulence caused by the government shutdown highlights the intersection of political polarization and economic fragility, suggesting that this may lead to a long-term restructuring of the dollar pricing system and the emergence of regional commodity pricing centers [7] - The ongoing crisis reflects deeper contradictions within the U.S. fiscal and political systems, indicating that shutdowns may become a normalized risk, necessitating a shift in asset allocation strategies from "defaulting on U.S. credit" to "pricing U.S. risk" [7]