纳斯达克100指数（NDX）在经历了过去一周的剧烈波动后，目前正徘徊在关键的技术支撑位上方。过去七个交易日（11月18日至25 日）的市场走势，实际上是整个2025年第四季度市场矛盾的缩影：基本面的强劲数据与市场对"AI泡沫"的结构性担忧并存，美联储的 政策转向预期与宏观数据的严重缺失共生。 AI叙事的裂变与重构：Nvidia（英伟达）虽然交出了营收570亿美元的亮眼财报，但股价的"利好出尽"反应揭示了市场的新焦虑—— 即"循环收入"（Circular Revenue）风险。市场开始质疑大型科技公司资本开支（Capex）的可持续性，以及初创企业依赖融资购买 GPU的商业模式闭环。这意味着AI板块的上涨逻辑正从"情绪驱动"转向严苛的"ROI（投资回报率）验证"阶段。 根据美国劳工统计局（BLS）和经济分析局（BEA）的最新公告，由于停摆期间无法进行实地调查和数据收集，原本应在11月初发布 的10月份非农就业报告（Non-farm Payrolls）和10月份消费者价格指数（CPI）已被取消发布，且不会在后续进行回溯性修正。 这意味着，直到12月10日的FOMC会议召开时，美联储官员手中掌握的最新官方通胀和就业数 ...

来源：金投网 今日周五（11月21日）亚盘时段，现货黄金价格出现震荡下行趋势，下跌约0.60%，目前交投于每盎司 4050美元附近。前一交易日内，金价经历了剧烈波动，最终稳定收报于4077.17美元/盎司。在周四的交 易中，黄金价格一度触及高位4110.03美元，随后又跌至低点4038.82美元。此前因美国9月非农就业数据 延迟数月发布而带来的涨幅已经完全回吐。当前金价相较于10月份创下的历史最高点（4381.29美元） 低了大约7.00%。尽管如此，2025年以来，黄金价格仍然实现了令人瞩目的55%增长。 【要闻速递】 周三公布的美联储会议纪要显示近期会议存在"严重分歧"，而优于预期的9月非农数据进一步佐证了放 缓当前宽松步伐的合理性。虽已落幕，美国政府停摆及其对数据可靠性的连锁反应仍笼罩市场，众多投 资者增持黄金以对冲政策风险及央行效能减弱的预期。 周四发布的9月非农就业报告虽反映的是过往状况，但69000人的超预期增幅仍引发关注。因美国政府停 摆而延迟近两月发布的9月数据以明显优势超出预期，但报告同时显示失业率升至4.4%，创2021年以来 新高，且七八月数据均遭下修。这意味着9月非农数据将成为美联储1 ...

周一（11月17日）亚盘时段，现货黄金开盘后表现清淡承压于周五大幅回吐后承压，目前暂交投于4083美元附近。上周金价冲高回落，周初开盘时，金价强 势站稳4000美元关口，投资者们满心期待着新一轮的狂飙突进，并一度向上个月创下的历史新高发起冲击，最高触及4245美元附近。然而，随着美联储官员 接二连三的鹰派言论如惊雷般炸响，市场情绪瞬间逆转，现货黄金在上周五暴挫近2%，收于4085美元/盎司附近。在美联储政策不确定性与美国经济数据真 空的双重夹击下，黄金的多头大军被迫按下暂停键。 美国10年期公债收益率反弹3.5个基点至4.146%，两年期收益率更创6月中旬以来最大单周涨幅，收益率曲线呈现"熊市陡峭化"——长期端升势更快，暗示市 场担忧通胀回潮与美联储暂停宽松。美元指数微涨0.1%至99.26，，交易员们在权衡数据回归后的波动风险。 上周黄金市场的转折点，无疑是美联储官员们那轮接连不断的"鹰派"表态，仿佛一记记重拳，直击投资者对宽松政策的幻想。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德在上 周五的能源会议上直言不讳，他对"过热"通胀的担忧远不止于关税带来的局部冲击，而是渗透到整个经济体的价格传导机制中。施密德强调，企业何时将成 本 ...

Core Insights - By the end of 2025, the market will continue to be overshadowed by the "data vacuum" and "policy divergence" in the US. The relatively certain macro trends before the end of the year are: 1) The Federal Reserve has shifted to a loose monetary policy, benefiting US Treasuries and gold; 2) The oil market is facing oversupply, negatively impacting oil prices; 3) China's policy remains stable, favoring the bond market and providing thematic opportunities for A-shares; 4) Europe and Japan lack endogenous growth momentum, with Japan's "high market trading" peaking and Europe's economy stagnating [3][5]. Stock Market - Increasing Divergence, Seeking Structural Oases - A-shares are currently in a phase of negotiation between policy expectations and economic realities, with market performance highly dependent on signals from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. The focus is shifting from "monetary easing" to "fiscal expectations," with expectations for a shift towards greater fiscal stimulus aimed at expanding domestic demand and building a modern industrial system [6]. - The US stock market's strong performance is primarily driven by a few tech stocks, contrasting with the deteriorating data vacuum and macroeconomic realities, facing significant correction pressure before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish actions have increased policy uncertainty, negatively affecting risk asset valuations [8][14]. - The Japanese stock market, driven by new Prime Minister's fiscal policies, has shown signs of fatigue, with recent profit-taking leading to a decline. The market is returning to fundamentals, and any global risk aversion, especially in the AI sector, could lead to significant volatility [16]. - European stock markets are lacking upward catalysts due to economic stagnation and a neutral central bank stance, with core economies like Germany and France facing growth challenges [21]. Bond Market - Turning Interest Rate Cycle, Seeking Balance of Safety and Yield - The US Treasury market is entering a rate-cutting cycle, with the yield curve showing a "non-typical" steepening, highlighting the value of long-term bonds. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish shift signals a significant opportunity for long-term US Treasuries [31][32]. - In the domestic bond market, the People's Bank of China is maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy, providing stable support for the bond market. The low correlation of Chinese bonds with global indices makes them a valuable safe haven amid geopolitical risks [37]. Commodity Market - The Game of Hedging and Oversupply - Gold prices are expected to recover after a healthy correction following a record high, with the long-term bullish logic remaining intact due to declining real interest rates and ongoing central bank purchases [41][43]. - The oil market is under pressure from oversupply, with prices expected to remain weak. The increase in production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries has led to a significant oversupply, overshadowing geopolitical risks [47][49]. Overall Asset Allocation Summary - The report suggests prioritizing assets that benefit from the clearest macro trends, such as US Treasuries and gold, while avoiding assets affected by uncertainties like the US data vacuum and AI bubble. The recommended allocation order is: 1) Safe assets benefiting from Fed easing (US Treasuries, gold); 2) Structurally independent opportunities (domestic bonds, Indian stocks); 3) Markets awaiting catalysts (Vietnam); 4) Risk assets facing stagnation or bubble peaks (US, Japanese, European stocks); 5) Cyclical commodities under supply pressure (oil) [52][53].

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is facing uncertainty due to a government shutdown, which has resulted in the inability to publish key economic data such as GDP, employment, and trade figures for the period from July to September [1][2] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the government shutdown could lead to an economic loss of up to $14 billion [1] - Analysts warn that the ongoing data vacuum may cause businesses to reduce hiring and investment, reflecting a cautious approach in response to current market conditions [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reported that if the government shutdown continues until mid-November, delayed data releases may not occur until December, potentially distorting both October and November data [2]

Group 1 - The White House Chief Economic Advisor, Hassett, predicts that the government shutdown "may end sometime this week" but warns of "stronger measures" if cooperation from Democrats is not achieved [1][3] - The government shutdown has entered its third week, becoming the third longest in U.S. history, with no clear end in sight due to partisan struggles over federal funding priorities [1][2] - The economic cost of the shutdown is expected to increase, with key federal workers facing their first "no-pay day" this week, impacting the payroll schedule [1][2] Group 2 - The delayed September CPI data is set to be released this week, amidst the ongoing government shutdown affecting various sectors from agriculture to real estate [2] - The core of the deadlock revolves around healthcare disputes, with Democrats aiming to extend subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, while Republicans refuse to negotiate until the shutdown ends [2][3] - Hassett mentions that moderate Democrats may push forward to resolve the shutdown, allowing for negotiations on desired policies once the government reopens [3]

Group 1: Commodity Market Impact - The commodity market is experiencing significant differentiation due to the dual effects of weakened dollar credit and deteriorating economic expectations, alongside the supply-demand fundamentals of different commodities [1][2] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are showing strong safe-haven characteristics, with global central banks continuing robust gold purchases, exceeding 1,000 tons annually since 2022, compared to an average of 500 tons from 2008 to 2022 [1] - The energy market is caught in a tug-of-war, with bearish factors primarily stemming from supply-side pressures, including OPEC+ production increases and rising Russian oil exports, while demand expectations are dampened by renewed global trade tensions [2] Group 2: Agricultural and Industrial Metals - The agricultural sector is facing challenges due to a "data vacuum" and weak demand, with the USDA halting key reports on crops like soybeans and corn, exacerbated by China not purchasing U.S. soybeans this year [2] - The industrial metals market is experiencing a "dollar-driven" upward trend, particularly in copper prices, which are inversely correlated with the dollar index, although caution remains regarding the sustainability of this price increase due to weak manufacturing PMI [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The current government shutdown is eroding overall market confidence and causing significant differentiation across sectors, reflecting the political dynamics in asset price movements [3] - The shutdown raises concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. credit system, especially given the backdrop of $36 trillion in debt, with interest payments consuming 15% of federal revenue, potentially leading to a sell-off of dollar assets [5] - International capital flows and currency dynamics are shifting, with emerging markets showing varied responses; Southeast Asian markets reliant on dollar financing are declining, while commodity-exporting countries are seeing stock market gains [6] Group 4: Long-term Structural Changes - The market turbulence caused by the government shutdown highlights the intersection of political polarization and economic fragility, suggesting that this may lead to a long-term restructuring of the dollar pricing system and the emergence of regional commodity pricing centers [7] - The ongoing crisis reflects deeper contradictions within the U.S. fiscal and political systems, indicating that shutdowns may become a normalized risk, necessitating a shift in asset allocation strategies from "defaulting on U.S. credit" to "pricing U.S. risk" [7]

Core Insights - The partial government shutdown in the U.S. has led to a halt in key agricultural data reports from the USDA and CFTC, creating a "data vacuum" that increases uncertainty for farmers, grain traders, and investors [1][3] Group 1: Impact on Agricultural Data - The shutdown has resulted in the suspension of critical reports, including the USDA's weekly export sales report, daily sales announcements, and the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which updates corn and soybean production and global demand [3] - The CFTC has also paused the release of weekly data showing market speculator positions, which affects crop pricing [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The lack of data has decreased market transparency, creating an uneven playing field where large multinational grain companies like Cargill, Bunge, and ADM have a significant advantage due to their substantial grain inventories and proprietary data systems [3] - Smaller traders and individual farmers find themselves at a disadvantage, struggling to operate without official guidance [3] Group 3: Investor Behavior and Trading Volume - Investors are becoming extremely cautious about taking on large risks due to the absence of CFTC trader data, which has directly impacted trading volumes in grain futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) [4] - The uncertainty has led to a reluctance among market participants to engage in high-risk trading activities [4] Group 4: Alternative Information Sources - In the absence of official data, market participants are attempting to piece together market insights through various means, such as direct communication with farmers, satellite imagery analysis, and studying the price differences between spot and futures markets [5] - However, industry insiders believe that these fragmented sources cannot replace the authority and comprehensiveness of USDA reports, which are crucial for market trading [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is set to shut down again since 2019, leading to increased uncertainty in global financial markets [1][4]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, fell approximately 0.5% during Asian trading hours [1]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 167.40 points, or 0.36%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw declines of 0.49% and 0.53%, respectively [2]. - Asian markets exhibited mixed performance; Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1%, while South Korea's KOSPI index rose by 0.7% [5][6]. Economic Indicators - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report, which is crucial for assessing economic health [4]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October has surged from 90% to 96% due to the uncertainty created by the shutdown [4][17]. Safe-Haven Assets - Increased risk aversion has driven COMEX gold prices above $3,900 per ounce, reaching a record high, while spot gold rose by 0.2% to $3,865 per ounce [2][7]. - The U.S. dollar index remained stable at 97.84 after three days of decline, with the dollar against the yen slightly increasing to 148.1 [7]. Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury market remained stable during Asian trading, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield holding steady at 4.150% [10]. Commodity Market - Oil prices stabilized after two days of decline, as investors weighed OPEC+'s potential increase in production against the backdrop of declining U.S. crude inventories [13].