Core Insights - The Nasdaq 100 Index is currently hovering above a critical technical support level after experiencing significant volatility, reflecting the conflicting dynamics of strong fundamental data and structural concerns over the "AI bubble" [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy focus has shifted from "anti-inflation" to "growth preservation," with the market pricing in an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [2] - Nvidia reported impressive Q3 2025 fiscal year earnings of $57 billion, but the market's reaction indicates new anxieties regarding "circular revenue" risks and the sustainability of capital expenditures among large tech companies [2][7] Market Dynamics - The absence of key economic indicators due to the recent government shutdown has created a "data vacuum," complicating macroeconomic assessments and leading to increased reliance on private sector data [1][5] - The September non-farm payroll report showed a lower-than-expected job addition of 119,000, with an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, raising concerns about the cooling labor market [3] - The private sector data, such as the S&P Global PMI, indicates rising input cost inflation, further complicating macroeconomic judgments amid the absence of official data [5] AI Sector Concerns - Nvidia's financial performance has raised questions about the sustainability of its revenue model, particularly regarding its investments in AI startups that may create a misleading perception of revenue growth [7][8] - The market is transitioning from an "emotion-driven" narrative to a more stringent "ROI validation" phase for AI stocks, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [2] - Concerns about inventory levels and accounts receivable have emerged, as Nvidia's management indicated rising inventory to meet demand, which could signal potential channel inventory buildup [7] Seasonal Trends - The Thanksgiving week historically shows strong seasonal characteristics in the stock market, with an average increase of 0.37% despite lower trading volumes [11][12] - The current market environment, characterized by data absence and valuation disputes in the AI sector, necessitates a cautious approach to investment strategies during this period [12]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing a downward trend, trading around $4050 per ounce, reflecting a significant drop from its recent high of $4110.03, and a 7% decrease from the historical peak of $4381.29 reached in October. However, gold prices have still shown a remarkable 55% increase since 2025 [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed "serious divisions" among policymakers, with the better-than-expected September non-farm payroll data supporting the rationale for slowing the current easing pace [2]. - The September non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected increase of 69,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, indicating potential challenges for the labor market [2]. - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 60.2% probability of maintaining current interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with a 39.8% chance of a rate cut, reflecting a shift in market expectations [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4240 and near the historical high of $4381, which may impact short-term price movements [4][5]. - Support levels are established at $4041 (20-day moving average), $4000 (psychological level), and $3886 (near the low point from October 28), which are crucial for maintaining price stability [6][7]. - Despite short-term pressures, gold's performance remains driven by multiple macro factors, indicating strong upward momentum even in a hawkish Fed environment [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have significantly impacted gold prices, leading to a sharp decline after a period of optimism and high trading volumes [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices opened at around $4083, facing pressure after a significant drop of nearly 2% last Friday, closing at approximately $4085 per ounce [1] - The price of gold had previously surged to a high of $4245, but the market sentiment shifted dramatically due to the Fed's hawkish stance [1][3] - The probability of a rate cut in December plummeted from over 60% to below 46% following the hawkish comments from Fed officials [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Influence - Kansas City Fed President Esther George expressed concerns about "overheating" inflation, indicating that the Fed cannot afford to be complacent about inflation expectations [3][4] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan reiterated that inflation remains high and is on an upward trend, suggesting that unless compelling evidence of slowing inflation emerges, she would not support further rate cuts [4] - The Fed's shift in tone is linked to the recent government shutdown, which has created a data vacuum, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5] Group 3: Economic Data and Uncertainty - The government shutdown has resulted in significant delays in key economic data releases, including employment and inflation reports, which are crucial for the Fed's policy decisions [5] - The lack of reliable data before the next Fed meeting may lead to a more cautious approach from policymakers, potentially impacting gold's attractiveness as a non-yielding asset [5][6] - Upcoming economic data releases, including the non-farm payroll report and other indicators, will be critical in shaping market expectations and gold prices [6]

Core Insights - By the end of 2025, the market will continue to be overshadowed by the "data vacuum" and "policy divergence" in the US. The relatively certain macro trends before the end of the year are: 1) The Federal Reserve has shifted to a loose monetary policy, benefiting US Treasuries and gold; 2) The oil market is facing oversupply, negatively impacting oil prices; 3) China's policy remains stable, favoring the bond market and providing thematic opportunities for A-shares; 4) Europe and Japan lack endogenous growth momentum, with Japan's "high market trading" peaking and Europe's economy stagnating [3][5]. Stock Market - Increasing Divergence, Seeking Structural Oases - A-shares are currently in a phase of negotiation between policy expectations and economic realities, with market performance highly dependent on signals from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. The focus is shifting from "monetary easing" to "fiscal expectations," with expectations for a shift towards greater fiscal stimulus aimed at expanding domestic demand and building a modern industrial system [6]. - The US stock market's strong performance is primarily driven by a few tech stocks, contrasting with the deteriorating data vacuum and macroeconomic realities, facing significant correction pressure before the end of the year. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish actions have increased policy uncertainty, negatively affecting risk asset valuations [8][14]. - The Japanese stock market, driven by new Prime Minister's fiscal policies, has shown signs of fatigue, with recent profit-taking leading to a decline. The market is returning to fundamentals, and any global risk aversion, especially in the AI sector, could lead to significant volatility [16]. - European stock markets are lacking upward catalysts due to economic stagnation and a neutral central bank stance, with core economies like Germany and France facing growth challenges [21]. Bond Market - Turning Interest Rate Cycle, Seeking Balance of Safety and Yield - The US Treasury market is entering a rate-cutting cycle, with the yield curve showing a "non-typical" steepening, highlighting the value of long-term bonds. The Federal Reserve's recent dovish shift signals a significant opportunity for long-term US Treasuries [31][32]. - In the domestic bond market, the People's Bank of China is maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy, providing stable support for the bond market. The low correlation of Chinese bonds with global indices makes them a valuable safe haven amid geopolitical risks [37]. Commodity Market - The Game of Hedging and Oversupply - Gold prices are expected to recover after a healthy correction following a record high, with the long-term bullish logic remaining intact due to declining real interest rates and ongoing central bank purchases [41][43]. - The oil market is under pressure from oversupply, with prices expected to remain weak. The increase in production from OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries has led to a significant oversupply, overshadowing geopolitical risks [47][49]. Overall Asset Allocation Summary - The report suggests prioritizing assets that benefit from the clearest macro trends, such as US Treasuries and gold, while avoiding assets affected by uncertainties like the US data vacuum and AI bubble. The recommended allocation order is: 1) Safe assets benefiting from Fed easing (US Treasuries, gold); 2) Structurally independent opportunities (domestic bonds, Indian stocks); 3) Markets awaiting catalysts (Vietnam); 4) Risk assets facing stagnation or bubble peaks (US, Japanese, European stocks); 5) Cyclical commodities under supply pressure (oil) [52][53].

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is facing uncertainty due to a government shutdown, which has resulted in the inability to publish key economic data such as GDP, employment, and trade figures for the period from July to September [1][2] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the government shutdown could lead to an economic loss of up to $14 billion [1] - Analysts warn that the ongoing data vacuum may cause businesses to reduce hiring and investment, reflecting a cautious approach in response to current market conditions [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reported that if the government shutdown continues until mid-November, delayed data releases may not occur until December, potentially distorting both October and November data [2]

Group 1 - The White House Chief Economic Advisor, Hassett, predicts that the government shutdown "may end sometime this week" but warns of "stronger measures" if cooperation from Democrats is not achieved [1][3] - The government shutdown has entered its third week, becoming the third longest in U.S. history, with no clear end in sight due to partisan struggles over federal funding priorities [1][2] - The economic cost of the shutdown is expected to increase, with key federal workers facing their first "no-pay day" this week, impacting the payroll schedule [1][2] Group 2 - The delayed September CPI data is set to be released this week, amidst the ongoing government shutdown affecting various sectors from agriculture to real estate [2] - The core of the deadlock revolves around healthcare disputes, with Democrats aiming to extend subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, while Republicans refuse to negotiate until the shutdown ends [2][3] - Hassett mentions that moderate Democrats may push forward to resolve the shutdown, allowing for negotiations on desired policies once the government reopens [3]

Group 1: Commodity Market Impact - The commodity market is experiencing significant differentiation due to the dual effects of weakened dollar credit and deteriorating economic expectations, alongside the supply-demand fundamentals of different commodities [1][2] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are showing strong safe-haven characteristics, with global central banks continuing robust gold purchases, exceeding 1,000 tons annually since 2022, compared to an average of 500 tons from 2008 to 2022 [1] - The energy market is caught in a tug-of-war, with bearish factors primarily stemming from supply-side pressures, including OPEC+ production increases and rising Russian oil exports, while demand expectations are dampened by renewed global trade tensions [2] Group 2: Agricultural and Industrial Metals - The agricultural sector is facing challenges due to a "data vacuum" and weak demand, with the USDA halting key reports on crops like soybeans and corn, exacerbated by China not purchasing U.S. soybeans this year [2] - The industrial metals market is experiencing a "dollar-driven" upward trend, particularly in copper prices, which are inversely correlated with the dollar index, although caution remains regarding the sustainability of this price increase due to weak manufacturing PMI [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The current government shutdown is eroding overall market confidence and causing significant differentiation across sectors, reflecting the political dynamics in asset price movements [3] - The shutdown raises concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. credit system, especially given the backdrop of $36 trillion in debt, with interest payments consuming 15% of federal revenue, potentially leading to a sell-off of dollar assets [5] - International capital flows and currency dynamics are shifting, with emerging markets showing varied responses; Southeast Asian markets reliant on dollar financing are declining, while commodity-exporting countries are seeing stock market gains [6] Group 4: Long-term Structural Changes - The market turbulence caused by the government shutdown highlights the intersection of political polarization and economic fragility, suggesting that this may lead to a long-term restructuring of the dollar pricing system and the emergence of regional commodity pricing centers [7] - The ongoing crisis reflects deeper contradictions within the U.S. fiscal and political systems, indicating that shutdowns may become a normalized risk, necessitating a shift in asset allocation strategies from "defaulting on U.S. credit" to "pricing U.S. risk" [7]

Core Insights - The partial government shutdown in the U.S. has led to a halt in key agricultural data reports from the USDA and CFTC, creating a "data vacuum" that increases uncertainty for farmers, grain traders, and investors [1][3] Group 1: Impact on Agricultural Data - The shutdown has resulted in the suspension of critical reports, including the USDA's weekly export sales report, daily sales announcements, and the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which updates corn and soybean production and global demand [3] - The CFTC has also paused the release of weekly data showing market speculator positions, which affects crop pricing [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The lack of data has decreased market transparency, creating an uneven playing field where large multinational grain companies like Cargill, Bunge, and ADM have a significant advantage due to their substantial grain inventories and proprietary data systems [3] - Smaller traders and individual farmers find themselves at a disadvantage, struggling to operate without official guidance [3] Group 3: Investor Behavior and Trading Volume - Investors are becoming extremely cautious about taking on large risks due to the absence of CFTC trader data, which has directly impacted trading volumes in grain futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) [4] - The uncertainty has led to a reluctance among market participants to engage in high-risk trading activities [4] Group 4: Alternative Information Sources - In the absence of official data, market participants are attempting to piece together market insights through various means, such as direct communication with farmers, satellite imagery analysis, and studying the price differences between spot and futures markets [5] - However, industry insiders believe that these fragmented sources cannot replace the authority and comprehensiveness of USDA reports, which are crucial for market trading [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is set to shut down again since 2019, leading to increased uncertainty in global financial markets [1][4]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, fell approximately 0.5% during Asian trading hours [1]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 167.40 points, or 0.36%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw declines of 0.49% and 0.53%, respectively [2]. - Asian markets exhibited mixed performance; Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1%, while South Korea's KOSPI index rose by 0.7% [5][6]. Economic Indicators - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report, which is crucial for assessing economic health [4]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October has surged from 90% to 96% due to the uncertainty created by the shutdown [4][17]. Safe-Haven Assets - Increased risk aversion has driven COMEX gold prices above $3,900 per ounce, reaching a record high, while spot gold rose by 0.2% to $3,865 per ounce [2][7]. - The U.S. dollar index remained stable at 97.84 after three days of decline, with the dollar against the yen slightly increasing to 148.1 [7]. Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury market remained stable during Asian trading, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield holding steady at 4.150% [10]. Commodity Market - Oil prices stabilized after two days of decline, as investors weighed OPEC+'s potential increase in production against the backdrop of declining U.S. crude inventories [13].