Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a third rate cut of 25 basis points, locking the federal funds rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, alongside a liquidity injection plan of $40 billion in Treasury purchases over 30 days and the removal of the cap on repurchase operations [2][3] - This marks a shift from simple interest rate adjustments to comprehensive liquidity injections, indicating a deeper continuation of the easing cycle [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones surged by 497.46 points, and the S&P 500 approached historical peaks, reflecting market enthusiasm for the "invisible QE" [2] - Historical data suggests that similar liquidity injections in 2019 led to a 12% increase in the S&P 500 within three months, indicating potential for significant market gains in the current scenario [5] Group 3: Sector Impacts - The low interest rate environment is expected to boost growth stock valuations, particularly in sectors like AI computing and semiconductors, while traditional sectors like finance and energy may face limitations due to inflation pressures [5] - Precious metals, especially gold, are anticipated to benefit significantly from the easing cycle, with predictions of gold prices reaching $4,500-$5,000 per ounce [5] Group 4: Currency and Emerging Markets - The dollar index is projected to enter a mild depreciation phase, while emerging market currencies, particularly the Chinese yuan, are expected to appreciate, attracting foreign investment [6] - The yuan is forecasted to return to the 6.8-7.0 range against the dollar, influencing asset allocation strategies in emerging markets [6] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Differentiated asset allocation strategies are recommended for various investor types, focusing on sectors that benefit from liquidity and growth, while maintaining defensive positions in uncertain markets [7] - For ordinary investors, a diversified approach is suggested, balancing between low-risk products and higher-risk equities, with a focus on technology and precious metals [8]

Group 1: Commodity Market Impact - The commodity market is experiencing significant differentiation due to the dual effects of weakened dollar credit and deteriorating economic expectations, alongside the supply-demand fundamentals of different commodities [1][2] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are showing strong safe-haven characteristics, with global central banks continuing robust gold purchases, exceeding 1,000 tons annually since 2022, compared to an average of 500 tons from 2008 to 2022 [1] - The energy market is caught in a tug-of-war, with bearish factors primarily stemming from supply-side pressures, including OPEC+ production increases and rising Russian oil exports, while demand expectations are dampened by renewed global trade tensions [2] Group 2: Agricultural and Industrial Metals - The agricultural sector is facing challenges due to a "data vacuum" and weak demand, with the USDA halting key reports on crops like soybeans and corn, exacerbated by China not purchasing U.S. soybeans this year [2] - The industrial metals market is experiencing a "dollar-driven" upward trend, particularly in copper prices, which are inversely correlated with the dollar index, although caution remains regarding the sustainability of this price increase due to weak manufacturing PMI [2] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The current government shutdown is eroding overall market confidence and causing significant differentiation across sectors, reflecting the political dynamics in asset price movements [3] - The shutdown raises concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. credit system, especially given the backdrop of $36 trillion in debt, with interest payments consuming 15% of federal revenue, potentially leading to a sell-off of dollar assets [5] - International capital flows and currency dynamics are shifting, with emerging markets showing varied responses; Southeast Asian markets reliant on dollar financing are declining, while commodity-exporting countries are seeing stock market gains [6] Group 4: Long-term Structural Changes - The market turbulence caused by the government shutdown highlights the intersection of political polarization and economic fragility, suggesting that this may lead to a long-term restructuring of the dollar pricing system and the emergence of regional commodity pricing centers [7] - The ongoing crisis reflects deeper contradictions within the U.S. fiscal and political systems, indicating that shutdowns may become a normalized risk, necessitating a shift in asset allocation strategies from "defaulting on U.S. credit" to "pricing U.S. risk" [7]

Core Viewpoint - The value of core assets is being redefined by national security, supply chain stability, and energy independence as capital from the US, France, Japan, and emerging economies enters the market [2] Group 1: Investment Activities - SoftBank reached a $2 billion equity investment agreement with Intel, purchasing shares at $23 each [3] - The US government is considering converting part of the $10.9 billion subsidy under the CHIPS and Science Act into approximately 10% equity in Intel, potentially making it the largest shareholder [4] - This competition for Intel highlights its strategic role in the expansion of the US advanced semiconductor manufacturing and supply chain [4][5] Group 2: Strategic Importance of Intel - Intel's value has transcended its individual corporate worth, becoming a foundational infrastructure for US technological sovereignty [5] - The hidden value in Intel's asset package includes its role as a "national security vehicle" and "supply chain stabilizer" [6] - The US government's plan to convert subsidies into equity reflects a non-market valuation based on Intel's strategic necessity rather than its current profitability [6] Group 3: Global Capital Movements - The shift in capital movements indicates a global revaluation of core assets, with similar actions seen in France, Japan, and Saudi Arabia [7] - The French government has fully nationalized EDF, while Japan's national fund invested 900 billion yen in JSR, a leader in photoresists [7] - Central banks in Beijing and Warsaw are accumulating gold, indicating a trend towards securing national resources [7] Group 4: Changing Asset Valuation Logic - The previous focus on efficiency and globalization is being replaced by a new paradigm prioritizing national security, supply chain stability, and energy independence [9] - The traditional metrics of market discount rates and capital returns are being diminished in importance, with new core indicators emerging [9]