Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown is causing a disruption in the flow of official data, which is critical for decision-making by Japan and other countries regarding their monetary policies, trade performance, and inflation outlooks [1][2] - Global officials express concerns that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could lead to a "data blackout," complicating their decision-making processes and increasing the risk of errors [1][2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlights that political pressures on policy institutions may erode public trust in their ability to fulfill their missions, which could complicate policy-making for central banks and decision-makers [3] Group 1 - The Japanese central bank faces challenges in deciding when to resume interest rate hikes due to the lack of reliable U.S. data [1] - An anonymous Japanese decision-maker criticized the situation, emphasizing the reliance of the Federal Reserve on data that is currently unavailable [1] - The Bank of England's policy committee member noted that while U.S. data issues do not directly impact the Bank of England's policy debates, they reflect a broader trend affecting the pound's global standing [1][2] Group 2 - The IMF's World Economic Outlook report indicates that the impact of policy changes on economic prospects has been significant but not catastrophic [4] - Following a previous downward adjustment, the IMF has revised its global growth forecast for the year to 3.2% [5] - The ongoing government shutdown is creating a significant data gap, leading to increased uncertainty and risk of errors in economic forecasts as decision-makers struggle to integrate available microdata and anecdotal evidence [6]

科技巨头：盈利强劲难掩股价疲态 过去一周，美国大型科技公司的财报再次展示了其强大的盈利能力。 对于市场参与者而言，刚刚过去的一周无疑是"信息量巨大但又混乱不堪的"。 高盛对冲基金业务主管Tony Pasquariello在一份最新的报告中如此形容。 他认为， 尽管许多关键事件尘埃落定，但市场留下的问题似乎比答案更多，这使得短期内的风险回报变得异常棘手。 最新动态显示，市场正努力消化多重矛盾信号。一方面，新一轮的关税波动和一份"明显糟糕"的非农就业报告，共同给宏观经济前景蒙上了阴影，并直接引发 了周五短期国债收益率的急剧下跌。 另一方面，美国大型科技公司交出了又一份强劲的季度财报，但其股价的平淡反应却暗示，市场对利好的定价已相当充分，投资者的预期也变得更为苛刻。与 此同时，小盘股遭遇了自关键时期以来最糟糕的一周，其剧烈抛售进一步加剧了市场的担忧情绪。 这些 相互冲突的信号，叠加夏季市场典型的低流动性等，共同构成了一幅复杂的图景。 尽管长期结构性因素或许依然乐观，但短期内，交易员们正面临着一 个充满挑战的交易环境。 根据高盛的测算，剔除英伟达后的"科技七巨头"第二季度盈利同比增长高达26%，而标普500指数其余成 ...