新华财经北京10月9日电欧洲交易时段，欧洲央行（ECB）管委会发布最新货币政策决议，核心维持三 大关键利率稳定，并明确资产购买计划（APP）与新冠疫情大流行紧急购买计划（PEPP）的缩减路 径。结合新发布的欧央行预测与经济数据，当前欧元区通胀逼近2%中期目标，经济增长呈现"短期承 压、长期韧性"特征，货币政策立场进一步锚定"数据依赖、灵活适配"原则，为欧元区经济稳定运行提 供清晰政策预期。 从当前经济表现看，上半年欧元区经济累计增长0.7%，主要依赖国内需求韧性，但季度走势呈现"前强 后弱"：一季度因提前应对预期关税上调，国际贸易活动集中释放推动增长；二季度则受关税落地、欧 元走强及全球竞争加剧影响，增速有所回落。不过，劳动力市场仍为经济"压舱石"，7月失业率稳定在 6.2%的低位，低失业预期将支撑居民消费支出，为下半年经济提供缓冲。 利率政策：维持现有水平，锚定通胀目标稳定性 会议纪要显示，欧洲央行延续此前利率框架，三大关键利率均保持不变：存款便利利率维持2.00%，主 要再融资操作利率稳定在2.15%，边际贷款便利利率保持2.40%。这一决策的核心依据在于，当前通胀 水平与前景评估"基本符合中期目标导向" ...

金融期货早评 宏观：微光初现，政策托底 【市场资讯】1）中国央行：要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，用好证券、基金、保险公司 互换便利和股票回购增持再贷款，抓好各项货币政策措施执行，充分释放政策效应。2）国 务院国资委召开国有企业经济运行座谈会：要带头坚决抵制"内卷式"竞争。3）"反内卷"初 露锋芒，中国 8 月规模以上工业企业利润同比大增 20.4%，创 2023 年 12 月以来最高增速， 扭转 7 月下滑 1.5%的势头。4）上海出台住宅品质提升新规，高品质住宅标准明确，阳台 面积计算方式重大调整。5）特朗普放狠话，政府关门要关就关、全怪民主党，众院拟休会 到下月；报道称特朗普拟周一在白宫约见国会两党领袖，应对关门危机；美国政府关门风 险高企，美联储依赖的 9 月非农就业报告或被迫延迟发布。6）美联储青睐通胀指标美核 心 PCE 物价指数 8 月环比增 0.2%符合预期，消费支出连续三个月增长。7）白宫称特朗普 的药品关税不适用于欧日等贸易协议方，不是 100%是 15%。8）特朗普芯片新政：要求生 产商国内产量与进口 1:1，未达标将征关税。9）美国司法部向最高法院表示：市场不会被 特朗普解雇库克吓到。美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's "third mission" of pursuing moderate long-term interest rates has gained attention, especially after new board member Stephen Milan's dissenting vote against a 25 basis point rate cut, advocating instead for a 50 basis point cut, indicating potential political influence from the White House [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1]. - Milan's dissenting vote highlights a significant internal division within the Federal Reserve, with 11 votes in favor of the rate cut and 1 against, suggesting a strong consensus despite political pressures [2][4]. - The dot plot revealed a notable divergence in opinions among the 19 voting members regarding future rate cuts, indicating a lack of consensus on the pace of monetary easing [5]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts and Implications - The Federal Reserve slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%, while maintaining its predictions for unemployment and inflation for 2024 [5]. - For 2026, the Fed's outlook suggests higher growth, lower unemployment, and higher inflation, with the terminal rate projected to decrease to 3.4% from 3.6% [5]. - The current economic data indicates a shift in the Fed's focus towards stabilizing the labor market, with a cautious approach to future rate cuts [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Opportunities - The anticipated continuation of rate cuts may lead to a revaluation of global assets, benefiting physical assets and precious metals, such as energy, metals, real estate, and gold [6]. - A weaker dollar could accelerate capital flows into emerging markets, particularly those benefiting from manufacturing shifts and resource exports [6]. - The Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts reflects a balancing act between achieving its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability while navigating political pressures [8][9].

【导读】美联储降息 几 成定局，利好全球及中国股市 ； 降息幅度现分歧，人事变动引关注 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 北京时间9月17日凌晨，美联储将公布联邦公开市场委员会（以下简称FOMC）议息会议的最 终结果。记者梳理了全球机构投资者当前最关心的几个问题，以飨读者。 降息25个基点还是50个基点？ 目前看， 尽管美联储将时隔9个月重启降息已无悬念，但对于降息幅度，机构投资者仍有分 歧。 摩根大通全球投资策略师费德里科·奎瓦斯 （ Federico Cuevas ） 发布报告表示，最新的就 业数据使美联储保持在降息的轨道上，鉴于招聘持续降温，降幅很可能是25个基点。 英格兰德 指出，如果FOMC决定只降息25个基点，米兰、沃勒（Waller）和鲍曼 （Bowman）可能会 提出 异议。如果降息50个基点，即使对后续降息不做承诺，鹰派也可 能提出异议。如果FOMC降息50个基点并转向数据依赖，假设鲍威尔处于多数地位，只有少 数坚定的鹰派会持异议。这次的鹰派异议可能来自堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Schmid）、圣 路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆（Musalem）或芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Goolsbee）。 英格兰德认为，鲍威 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the balance of risks facing the US economy is shifting, with increasing downward risks in the job market as both supply and demand are slowing [3] - The report highlights that the probability of a rate cut in September has significantly increased, with market expectations rising from 75% to 90% following Powell's speech [3] - The future path of interest rate cuts remains dependent on economic data, particularly inflation, employment, and consumption trends [3] Group 2 - The report anticipates that inflation may rebound in August, and a decrease in immigrant labor could offset the impact of slowing labor demand on the unemployment rate, which is expected to remain low [3] - If inflation rises less than the unemployment rate in August, the Federal Reserve may opt for a rate cut in September; conversely, if inflation rises more, the Fed may delay until October [3] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve may cut rates again in December and that there is significant uncertainty regarding the timing of future cuts next year, influenced by both economic dynamics and the White House's pressure on the Fed [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is a significant event that influences global capital flows, focusing this year on the transformation of the labor market amid challenges like aging populations and productivity slowdowns [1][2]. Group 1: Conference Details - The conference will take place from August 21 to 23, gathering central bank leaders, policymakers, economists, and market experts to discuss pressing global economic challenges and policy choices [1]. - The theme of this year's conference is "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," addressing real-world issues such as aging, productivity growth, and the rise of AI and automation [1]. Group 2: Historical Significance - Historically, key statements made at this conference have led to significant market movements, such as Paul Volcker's defense of aggressive rate hikes and Ben Bernanke's hints at quantitative easing during the global financial crisis [2][3]. - The conference serves as a pivotal moment for market direction, with past remarks from Federal Reserve chairs often marking turning points in market trends [3]. Group 3: Current Economic Context - Recent data shows that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July exceeded expectations, indicating a potential resurgence of inflation, which has led to a shift in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4]. - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed that most participants view inflation risks as outweighing employment risks, highlighting internal divisions on the path to interest rate cuts [4]. Group 4: Political Pressure on the Fed - There is increasing political pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly from the Trump administration, which is advocating for quicker rate cuts, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [5][6]. - The upcoming conference will be closely watched for how Fed Chair Jerome Powell addresses these political pressures and maintains the Fed's credibility [6]. Group 5: Key Investor Focus Areas - Investors should pay attention to three main areas during the conference: 1. The signaling of interest rate paths and whether Powell will downplay expectations for a September rate cut [8]. 2. The impact of tariffs on corporate costs and inflation, particularly how Powell articulates this relationship [8]. 3. The Fed's independence in the face of political noise and how Powell responds to these challenges [8].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a complex economic landscape as he prepares for his farewell speech, balancing the dual objectives of price stability and full employment amid conflicting economic indicators [3][4][6] Economic Indicators - Current economic data presents a mixed picture, with manufacturing PMI declining and corporate orders decreasing, indicating pressure on the real economy [4] - Conversely, the job market remains strong with low unemployment rates and stable wage growth, suggesting a relatively healthy economy [4] - Inflationary pressures persist, indicating that price stability has not yet been fully achieved [4][7] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Powell is caught in a dilemma between addressing high inflation, which could erode purchasing power, and high unemployment, which could lead to social issues and reduced economic growth [3][4] - The internal debate among Federal Reserve officials regarding which risk is greater—high inflation or high unemployment—reflects the complexity of the current economic situation [3] Market Expectations - Investors and the Trump administration anticipate a rate cut at the upcoming September meeting, hoping it will create a more accommodative monetary policy environment and stimulate economic growth [3][4] - The communication surrounding any potential rate cut is crucial, as it could signal either a temporary measure or the beginning of a series of cuts, impacting market confidence [5] Historical Context - Powell's tenure has been marked by unprecedented challenges, including aggressive monetary policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent inflationary pressures [6] - He aims to emulate the flexible policy adjustments of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan while navigating the current economic uncertainties [7]

Group 1 - The ongoing competition for the Federal Reserve Chair position has evolved into a significant political and economic event that impacts global financial markets [1][2] - President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's current policies highlights a growing divide between political expectations and the Fed's traditional data-driven approach [2][3] - The list of candidates for the Fed Chair position reflects a spectrum of policy orientations, from traditional monetary policy advocates to those favoring more flexible approaches [3][4] Group 2 - Financial markets are reacting strongly to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed Chair selection, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in September being priced in [4] - Companies are facing challenges due to tariffs, with 333 companies reporting losses of $13.6 to $15.2 billion in the second quarter, indicating the broader economic impact of trade policies [4][5] - The current crisis reveals deep contradictions within the Federal Reserve's structure, balancing its independence with political pressures from the executive branch [5][6] Group 3 - The potential outcomes of excessive political interference in the Fed's decision-making could lead to severe economic consequences, as historical precedents suggest [6][7] - Future leadership will need to navigate the balance between political pressures and professional integrity, as well as the relationship between short-term stimulus and long-term stability [7][8] - The decisions made by the Federal Reserve will have far-reaching implications not only for the U.S. economy but also for the global economic and financial landscape [7][8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, reflecting significant pressure on Chairman Powell's decision-making [1] - Former President Trump criticized Powell for being slow to act, highlighting the increasing burden of national debt, which has surpassed $36 trillion, with annual interest payments reaching $1.2 trillion [1] - The current economic situation presents a dilemma for the Federal Reserve, balancing high inflation, which remains at 3.4%, against rising unemployment, with July's job additions at only 114,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.3% [1][3] Group 2 - Analysts on Wall Street have noted that the current interest rate levels are suppressing the real economy, leading to decreased investment willingness among businesses and reduced consumer spending due to high credit card rates [3] - The strong dollar, resulting from stagnant interest rate expectations, poses a dual challenge for export-oriented industries [3] - The conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve highlights the clash between political objectives and economic realities, with the former seeking low rates to alleviate debt pressure ahead of the 2024 elections [3][5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's predicament reflects a broader anxiety among Western economies in the post-pandemic era, characterized by high debt, high inflation, and low growth, leading to the diminishing effectiveness of traditional monetary policy tools [5] - Powell's challenge is emblematic of a critical question facing all developed economies: how to navigate the balance between political pressure and economic principles [5] - The outcome of this struggle may redefine the operational rules of the global monetary system, with alternative approaches, such as structural monetary policy tools from certain Eastern economies, potentially offering new solutions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of the European Central Bank, Lane, emphasizes that data dependency extends beyond monetary policy to include other policy settings, as changes in international and domestic policy frameworks are highly correlated with future inflation dynamics [1] Group 1 - The importance of data in shaping monetary policy and its implications for broader policy settings is highlighted [1] - The relationship between policy frameworks and inflation dynamics is underscored, indicating a need for careful monitoring of both international and domestic changes [1]