Governor Martin, good morning. Good morning once again. Thanks for being here. Thanks for having me back.We've got to start with the labor market. Your reflections on what we saw yesterday. Does it lean one way or the other.Yeah, I mean, I think the implications of yesterday were obviously dovish. And if anyone was on the fence, I would hope that this would move them in the direction of cutting. I mean, you saw the unemployment rate edged up a bit.You know, you saw some other indicators like an increase in ...

■韩昱 10月27日至10月31日，堪称是全球金融市场的"超级央行周"。海外主要央行密集举行货币政策会议，其 中美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行以及加拿大央行的动作备受市场关注。具体来看，美联储和加拿大央行 均宣布将基准利率下调25个基点，欧洲央行、日本央行则宣布维持利率不变。 笔者认为，上述央行货币政策的"分道扬镳"，展现出海外主要央行货币政策的自主性正显著增强，而这 一自主性体现在三个方面。 一是在国际经贸增长不确定性加大的背景下，海外主要央行货币政策已进入"数据依赖"阶段。 例如，美联储近日如市场预期降息25个基点，是今年9月份降息25个基点后连续第二次降息。市场对此 次降息已有充分预期，但美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话为后续的利率路径增添了变数，对于12月份货币政策 会议，鲍威尔释放"鹰派"信号，表示需要考虑12月份利率行动的不确定性，12月份的利率下调并非定 局。 与此同时，日本央行以7票赞成、2票反对的表决结果，决定将政策利率维持在0.5%不变。日本央行行 长植田和男表示，日本经济"正温和复苏，但仍存在疲软迹象""何时再次加息尚无定论"，决策将基于数 据而非预设时间表。 可以看出，货币政策制定者普遍强调"数据依 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The October FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25bp and will stop quantitative tightening on December 1st, in line with market expectations. There are differences within the Fed on the policy rate path, and the expected path of interest rate cuts has changed. Powell's speech was somewhat hawkish, emphasizing a "data-dependent" approach and "risk neutrality" [7]. - Domestic macro: On October 28th, the "Proposal" and "Explanation" related to the 15th Five - Year Plan were released, enhancing the strategic status of science and technology and emerging industries. The Sino - US summit on October 30th was positive, with many consensuses on economic and trade consultations [7]. - Asset view: Short - term balanced allocation is recommended. With the implementation of interest rate cuts, progress in Sino - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, it is expected to benefit equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals. Black commodities also have a chance to rebound, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The Fed cut interest rates in October and will stop quantitative tightening. There are internal differences on the policy rate path, and the expected path of interest rate cuts has changed. Powell's speech was hawkish, emphasizing data dependence and risk neutrality [7]. - Domestic: The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan - related documents enhanced the status of science and technology and emerging industries. The Sino - US summit was positive, with many economic and trade consensuses [7]. - Asset: Short - term balanced allocation. Equity sectors, non - ferrous metals, and black commodities are expected to benefit, while precious metals may fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Technology events catalyze the active growth style, with small and micro - cap funds being crowded. Short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [8]. - Stock Index Options: The overall market turnover has slightly declined, and the liquidity of the options market may be lower than expected. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Geopolitical and economic and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment of precious metals. Concerns include the US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.4 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. Concerns include the rate of freight decline in September. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. 3.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: There are continuous policy disturbances and inventory pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Iron Ore: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and emotional disturbances are more obvious. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Coke: The start - up rate continues to decline, and price increases are about to be implemented. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Coking Coal: There are continuous supply disturbances, and coal prices are relatively strong. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [8]. - Other: For other products in this sector, such as silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with corresponding concerns for each product [8]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with different concerns for each metal, such as supply disturbances, policy changes, and demand expectations [8]. 3.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - For most products in this sector, such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, etc., the short - term judgment is mostly volatile or volatile downward, with concerns including supply and demand, policy, and price fluctuations of related raw materials [10]. 3.8 Agriculture - For various agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock products, the short - term judgment is mostly volatile, with concerns including weather, supply and demand, and policy [10].

Core Insights - The discussion at the 2025 Bund Summit focused on the challenges facing central banks, including geopolitical tensions, tariff barriers, high public debt, and the impact of artificial intelligence on monetary policy choices [1] Group 1: Tariffs and Inflation - Tariffs are becoming a significant uncertainty for central banks, particularly regarding their impact on U.S. inflation and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [3] - Jacob Frenkel noted that despite previous market concerns not materializing, it is premature to celebrate the current situation, drawing parallels to the "weaponization" of tariffs in the 1930s [3] - Raghuram Rajan indicated that while tariff-induced inflation effects have not fully manifested, there are signs of price increases due to tariffs, with a potential inflation rise of about one percentage point if two-thirds of tariffs are passed on [3][4] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Growth - Rajan expressed concerns about the slowing net job growth in the U.S. labor market, although the extent to which this will exert downward pressure on wages remains uncertain [4] - The resilience of U.S. consumption and strong investment, particularly in AI, has surprised many, suggesting that the anticipated impacts of trade uncertainties have not yet been fully realized [5] Group 3: Monetary Policy Framework - The traditional monetary policy framework's effectiveness is under scrutiny, especially following the Federal Reserve's recent adjustments to its policy framework [6] - Frenkel emphasized that while the framework should remain stable, it must adapt to significant external changes, indicating that the Fed's previous framework is no longer suitable in the current high-inflation environment [6][7] - The debate continues on whether to maintain a strict 2% inflation target or to adopt a more flexible range to avoid damaging credibility and causing unnecessary policy adjustments [7][8] Group 4: Lessons from Japan - Former Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa highlighted that Japan's prolonged economic stagnation is more related to demographic decline and adaptation to external changes than merely deflation [10] - Shirakawa advised against relying solely on aggressive monetary easing, suggesting that China should focus on supply-side issues rather than adopting Japan's past strategies [10] Group 5: Public Debt and Central Bank Credibility - Patrick Honohan discussed the challenges posed by high public debt, emphasizing the need for central banks to maintain their credibility while addressing inflation [11] - Shirakawa noted that the lack of political will for fiscal reform in Japan is partly due to the perception that low interest rates mitigate concerns over fiscal deficits [12]

美国政府关门导致官方数据流中断，这可能开始影响日本及其他国家决策者的视野。对于这些国家而 言，洞察世界第一大经济体的运行状况是判断其本国货币、贸易表现和通胀前景的重要依据。 换句话说，发生在美国的事情，影响绝不止于美国。全球官员表示，如果美国政府长期关门，使全球陷 入"数据盲区"，可能会使他们自己的决策复杂化，并在各国已在适应特朗普政府重塑全球贸易的努力之 际，增加犯错的风险。 日本央行行长植田和男在10月3日的新闻发布会上表示，"这是一个严重的问题。我们希望这能尽快解 决，"当时他正在讨论日本央行在决定何时恢复加息时面临的障碍。 一位要求匿名的日本决策者说得更直白，"这简直是个笑话。（美联储主席）鲍威尔一直在说美联储的 政策是数据依赖的，但现在根本没有数据可以依赖。" 英国央行政策委员曼恩表示，围绕美国数据的问题、美联储独立性的争议以及其他问题，并不像贸易政 策转变那样直接影响到英国央行的政策辩论，因为后者直接影响价格和出口前景等。 但她同时指出英镑是如何随着时间推移失去其世界中心地位的，这个过程耗时数十年，并由多种力量驱 动，她将这些力量称为"啃食英镑地位的'白蚁'"。 曼恩说，可能削弱美元地位或侵蚀美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains key interest rates and outlines a clear path for reducing asset purchase programs, indicating a commitment to data-driven and flexible monetary policy to support economic stability in the Eurozone [1][2][7]. Interest Rate Policy - The ECB keeps the three key interest rates unchanged: deposit facility rate at 2.00%, main refinancing operations rate at 2.15%, and marginal lending facility rate at 2.40%, as current inflation levels align with medium-term targets [2]. - August inflation in the Eurozone slightly increased to 2.1%, with core inflation stable at 2.3%, indicating a controlled price environment [2]. Asset Purchase Program - The ECB will no longer reinvest the principal of maturing securities from the Asset Purchase Program (APP) and Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), marking a transition from quantitative easing to normalized liquidity management [3]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans fell to 3.5%, supporting the market conditions for the balance sheet reduction [3]. Economic Growth - The ECB raised its 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 1.2%, reflecting a view of short-term pressures but long-term resilience in the Eurozone economy [4]. - The labor market remains strong, with a stable unemployment rate of 6.2%, which is expected to support consumer spending [4]. Risk Assessment - The ECB assesses that growth risks are balanced, with both upward and downward factors at play, while inflation uncertainty remains high [5]. - Downside risks include potential impacts from trade relations and geopolitical tensions, while upside risks involve unexpected increases in defense and infrastructure spending [5]. Policy Coordination - The ECB emphasizes the need for coordinated fiscal and structural reforms to enhance long-term economic resilience, focusing on growth-friendly investments [6]. - The completion of the savings-investment union and banking union is highlighted as essential for financial stability [6]. Data Dependency - The ECB reiterates its commitment to a data-dependent approach for future monetary policy decisions, ensuring flexibility in response to economic changes [7]. - ECB President Lagarde stated that the committee is prepared to adjust all policy tools as necessary to maintain inflation stability around the 2% target [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current economic cycle is showing marginal improvement, but there is still economic pressure in the future, and policy support is necessary. The Fed's future policy path will depend on employment market robustness and inflation decline rhythm. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in October has decreased marginally [2]. - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.15 this week. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [5]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate frequently and continue to oscillate during the holiday. Treasury bond investors can close long positions before the holiday [7][8]. - The container shipping futures price is likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate downward in the short term. The 12 - contract can continue to focus on low - buying opportunities, and generally, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling [11]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions lightly during the National Day holiday [15]. - The price of copper has risen due to the suspension of the Grasberg copper mine, and it is expected to decline slightly, with the weekly price range at 81,200 - 82,800 yuan per ton [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly; alumina is expected to operate weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly; zinc is expected to operate weakly; nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate; tin is expected to oscillate; lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the National Day; lead is expected to oscillate at a high level [21][25][28][29]. - The steel market is expected to oscillate weakly, and the iron ore price may decline in the short term; coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation; ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost but face large supply pressure [30][31][35][38]. - The oil price has rebounded in the short term due to geopolitical factors, but the medium - to - long - term fundamental trend is weak. PX - TA has rebounded at a low price, and it is advisable to consider cautious long - position attempts; MEG is expected to oscillate between 4150 - 4350, and it is not recommended to operate methanol before the National Day; PP may have a rebound drive, and PE is expected to oscillate weakly; PVC is recommended to wait and see; pure benzene and styrene are recommended to wait and see, and it is advisable to consider widening the price difference between them; fuel oil is recommended to wait and see; low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward drive; asphalt can try long - position allocation after the oil price stabilizes; rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see during the holiday; urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [42][46][48][52][54][57][58][60][61][63][67][69]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures - **Macro**: The supply - and - demand - side policies are being gradually advanced. The demand - side focuses on "benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption", and there may be incremental policies in the future. The "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side is being refined and implemented. The Fed may restart the rate - cut cycle in September, but the uncertainty of the rate - cut path has increased [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB against the US dollar is expected to oscillate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week. Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement in batches at the upper edge of the exchange - rate range, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 7.10 mark [5]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate frequently and continue to oscillate during the holiday due to the approaching holiday and the increase in risk - aversion sentiment [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The Treasury bond market is currently weak. It is recommended to close long positions before the holiday [8]. - **Container Shipping**: The container shipping futures price is likely to continue to oscillate or oscillate downward in the short term. The 12 - contract can continue to focus on low - buying opportunities, and generally, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct intraday short - selling [11]. 3.2 Commodities 3.2.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The precious metals market has continued to rise strongly, and it is expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term and may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to hold existing long positions lightly during the National Day holiday [13][15]. - **Copper**: The suspension of the Grasberg copper mine has pushed up the copper price. It is expected to decline slightly, with the weekly price range at 81,200 - 82,800 yuan per ton [16][17]. - **Aluminum & Its Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly; alumina is expected to operate weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to operate weakly due to the increased uncertainty of rate cuts and the suppression of the US dollar index [22]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel and stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate. The nickel market is affected by factors such as mine - end sentiment and new - energy support, and the stainless - steel market is affected by factors such as inventory and profit [24]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to oscillate, and the macro impact on tin prices has decreased, with the supply being tight in the short term [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the National Day. The downstream lithium - battery material demand is expected to increase, which may support the lithium - carbonate futures price [28]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to oscillate at a high level. The supply side may recover, and the demand side is generally stable, but the long - term demand is average [29]. 3.2.2 Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply - and - demand are both increasing, but the inventory reduction is less than in previous years. High - supply pressure remains, and the cost support is weakening [30]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro利好 has been exhausted, and the iron ore price may decline, but the downward space may be limited [31][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coking coal is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and coke follows coking coal. The "anti - involution" is the trading main line in the second half of the year [35]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost but face large supply pressure. The cost support and term structure have improved, but the supply is high and the demand is weak [38]. 3.2.3 Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price has rebounded in the short term due to geopolitical factors, but the medium - to - long - term fundamental trend is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the pre - holiday trend [42]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - TA has rebounded at a low price. It is advisable to consider cautious long - position attempts or widen the TA - SC price difference. The polyester peak season has limited height [46]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: MEG is expected to oscillate between 4150 - 4350. The demand has improved marginally, but the long - term accumulation expectation is difficult to change [48]. - **Methanol**: It is not recommended to operate methanol before the National Day. The coal price has weakened slightly, and the port inventory is difficult to solve [49]. - **PP**: PP may have a rebound drive due to the reduction of marginal supply. It is not advisable to chase short positions at present [52]. - **PE**: PE is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is recovering slowly, with inventory pressure [54]. - **PVC**: PVC is recommended to wait and see. The market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong policy disturbance [57]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are recommended to wait and see, and it is advisable to consider widening the price difference between them. The supply of pure benzene is high, and the upward space of styrene is limited [58]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is recommended to wait and see. The export has decreased, and the cracking upward drive is limited [60]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward drive. The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak [61]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt can try long - position allocation after the oil price stabilizes. The supply is increasing, and the demand has not been effectively released, but the inventory structure has improved [63]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: Rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see during the holiday. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has high - level resilience but also faces challenges [67]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850. The domestic supply - and - demand pattern is weak, but the second - batch export may support the demand [69].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's "third mission" of pursuing moderate long-term interest rates has gained attention, especially after new board member Stephen Milan's dissenting vote against a 25 basis point rate cut, advocating instead for a 50 basis point cut, indicating potential political influence from the White House [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1]. - Milan's dissenting vote highlights a significant internal division within the Federal Reserve, with 11 votes in favor of the rate cut and 1 against, suggesting a strong consensus despite political pressures [2][4]. - The dot plot revealed a notable divergence in opinions among the 19 voting members regarding future rate cuts, indicating a lack of consensus on the pace of monetary easing [5]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts and Implications - The Federal Reserve slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%, while maintaining its predictions for unemployment and inflation for 2024 [5]. - For 2026, the Fed's outlook suggests higher growth, lower unemployment, and higher inflation, with the terminal rate projected to decrease to 3.4% from 3.6% [5]. - The current economic data indicates a shift in the Fed's focus towards stabilizing the labor market, with a cautious approach to future rate cuts [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Opportunities - The anticipated continuation of rate cuts may lead to a revaluation of global assets, benefiting physical assets and precious metals, such as energy, metals, real estate, and gold [6]. - A weaker dollar could accelerate capital flows into emerging markets, particularly those benefiting from manufacturing shifts and resource exports [6]. - The Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts reflects a balancing act between achieving its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability while navigating political pressures [8][9].

【导读】美联储降息 几 成定局，利好全球及中国股市 ； 降息幅度现分歧，人事变动引关注 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 北京时间9月17日凌晨，美联储将公布联邦公开市场委员会（以下简称FOMC）议息会议的最 终结果。记者梳理了全球机构投资者当前最关心的几个问题，以飨读者。 降息25个基点还是50个基点？ 目前看， 尽管美联储将时隔9个月重启降息已无悬念，但对于降息幅度，机构投资者仍有分 歧。 摩根大通全球投资策略师费德里科·奎瓦斯 （ Federico Cuevas ） 发布报告表示，最新的就 业数据使美联储保持在降息的轨道上，鉴于招聘持续降温，降幅很可能是25个基点。 英格兰德 指出，如果FOMC决定只降息25个基点，米兰、沃勒（Waller）和鲍曼 （Bowman）可能会 提出 异议。如果降息50个基点，即使对后续降息不做承诺，鹰派也可 能提出异议。如果FOMC降息50个基点并转向数据依赖，假设鲍威尔处于多数地位，只有少 数坚定的鹰派会持异议。这次的鹰派异议可能来自堪萨斯城联储主席施密德（Schmid）、圣 路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆（Musalem）或芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比（Goolsbee）。 英格兰德认为，鲍威 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the balance of risks facing the US economy is shifting, with increasing downward risks in the job market as both supply and demand are slowing [3] - The report highlights that the probability of a rate cut in September has significantly increased, with market expectations rising from 75% to 90% following Powell's speech [3] - The future path of interest rate cuts remains dependent on economic data, particularly inflation, employment, and consumption trends [3] Group 2 - The report anticipates that inflation may rebound in August, and a decrease in immigrant labor could offset the impact of slowing labor demand on the unemployment rate, which is expected to remain low [3] - If inflation rises less than the unemployment rate in August, the Federal Reserve may opt for a rate cut in September; conversely, if inflation rises more, the Fed may delay until October [3] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve may cut rates again in December and that there is significant uncertainty regarding the timing of future cuts next year, influenced by both economic dynamics and the White House's pressure on the Fed [3]