Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core Views Glass - Glass is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus. Without unexpected factors, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The supply side has uncertainties, including the impact of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and potential industrial policies. The cost may rise. Before facing delivery, the futures may be more likely to rise than fall. The high mid - stream inventory in Shahe and Hubei restricts its upward elasticity [1]. - The price range is estimated to be (1000, 1400). Without cold - repair, consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [1]. 纯碱 - The market has repeatedly traded the fact and expectation of soda ash surplus. Without new factors intensifying the surplus and affecting the spot market, the futures may fluctuate with sentiment. High supply is expected, and the production capacity will increase with the output release of Yuangxing Phase II. Demand is expected to remain stable, with a 300 - 350 - million - ton capacity surplus in float glass and photovoltaic glass. Exports remain high. Policy and cost are uncertain factors. Without delivery pressure, soda ash may fluctuate around the marginal cost [1]. - The price range is estimated to be (1100, 1500). Use band - trading strategies and short on rallies without policy disturbances [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Glass and Soda Ash Third - Quarter Market Review Glass - In Q3 2025, the glass price center moved up. In July, the price of the main 09 contract rose from 1060 yuan/ton to around 1450 yuan/ton, a rise of over 36%, driven by macro - policies and the "anti - involution" sentiment. In August, the market sentiment cooled, and the price declined due to delivery pressure and high mid - stream inventory. In September, the price fluctuated as the market lacked a clear trading theme [2][3]. Soda Ash - In Q3 2025, the soda ash price center moved up from 1100 - 1200 yuan/ton to 1300 - 1400 yuan/ton. In July, the main 09 contract rose to over 1450 yuan/ton, a rise of about 24%, driven by macro - policies and speculative demand. In August, the market returned to reality. Although supply and inventory pressure were high, the price was supported near delivery, showing anti - decline characteristics [7]. Chapter 3: Core Concerns of Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Monitor the mid - stream inventory depletion. High inventory in Shahe and Hubei needs to be digested by the end - market in the peak season; otherwise, the price may decline. Hubei's situation is crucial for pricing [19]. - Pay attention to the realization of cost - increase expectations. There are policy pressures for coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe this quarter and in Hubei by the end of 2026. Coal prices may also be affected by policies [21]. - Track whether the supply side can continue to clear. The current daily melting volume is relatively low, and marginal changes in supply will affect the price [22]. Soda Ash - Watch for "policy - related stories" on the supply side. Policy - driven production cuts may change the supply - demand balance, and unexpected supply reduction may lead to significant price elasticity [22][23]. - Focus on the cost - increase expectations of coal and raw salt prices. Coal accounts for 35% - 40% of the cost, and raw salt prices may rise [24]. Chapter 4: Glass Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook Glass Supply - As of the end of September 2025, the float glass daily melting volume was around 16.1 - 16.2 million tons, slightly higher than expected. Some production lines may resume production in Q4, but there is no cold - repair expectation. Policy - related coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and Hubei may affect supply and cost [25][26]. Glass Valuation - Gas - fired production lines are in a loss, while coal - fired and petroleum - coke - fired production lines are profitable. There is a policy trend for coal - and petroleum - coke - fired lines to switch to gas, which will increase costs. Glass is in a low - valuation state, and its price increase may lead to over - supply due to increased production expectations [30][31]. Glass Demand - From January to August 2025, real - estate data was weak, which restricted glass demand. From January to September 2025, glass apparent demand declined by 6.5% - 7.0%. Although Q3 was better than Q2, high mid - stream inventory limited the upward elasticity of glass prices. Seasonally, Q4 demand may improve, but mid - stream inventory depletion needs to be observed [34]. Glass Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - Based on the average daily apparent demand in Q3, glass is in a basic balance in Q4. The annual supply and demand growth rates are - 6.3% and - 7% respectively. Marginal changes in supply or demand will determine price elasticity [48]. Chapter 5: Soda Ash Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook Long - term Supply Pressure - In H1 2025, soda ash production capacity increased from 38.9 million tons to 41.1 million tons. Yuangxing Phase II with 2.8 - million - ton capacity was ignited in mid - September. High supply is expected in Q4, and the daily output may be above 105,000 tons [51][56]. Valuation Disputes vs. Cost Increase - In Q3, coal and raw salt prices increased, driving up soda ash costs by 80 - 90 yuan/ton. Different production processes and regions have different costs. Market valuation is affected by the difficulty of marginal production capacity exit and cost - increase expectations [61][62]. Soda Ash Demand and Export - Float glass and photovoltaic glass are the main demand sources for soda ash. Float glass production may decline by 6% - 6.5%, and photovoltaic glass by 9% - 10%, dragging down soda ash demand by 4 - 5 percentage points. From January to August 2025, soda ash net exports were nearly 1.35 million tons, and monthly exports are expected to remain at 160,000 - 200,000 tons [72]. Soda Ash Surplus and High Inventory - Soda ash inventory is at a high level, and the market consensus is surplus. In Q4, demand may improve slightly, but supply will remain high, and the surplus situation is difficult to reverse [85]. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - In Q4, soda ash production is expected to remain high, with an annual growth rate of 2.5% - 3%. Demand will be stable, and exports will remain high. The supply - demand balance will remain in surplus, with an average daily surplus of about 10,000 tons [94].