Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core Views Glass - Glass is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus. Without unexpected factors, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The supply side has uncertainties, including the impact of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and potential industrial policies. The cost may rise. Before facing delivery, the futures may be more likely to rise than fall. The high mid - stream inventory in Shahe and Hubei restricts its upward elasticity [1]. - The price range is estimated to be (1000, 1400). Without cold - repair, consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [1]. 纯碱 - The market has repeatedly traded the fact and expectation of soda ash surplus. Without new factors intensifying the surplus and affecting the spot market, the futures may fluctuate with sentiment. High supply is expected, and the production capacity will increase with the output release of Yuangxing Phase II. Demand is expected to remain stable, with a 300 - 350 - million - ton capacity surplus in float glass and photovoltaic glass. Exports remain high. Policy and cost are uncertain factors. Without delivery pressure, soda ash may fluctuate around the marginal cost [1]. - The price range is estimated to be (1100, 1500). Use band - trading strategies and short on rallies without policy disturbances [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Glass and Soda Ash Third - Quarter Market Review Glass - In Q3 2025, the glass price center moved up. In July, the price of the main 09 contract rose from 1060 yuan/ton to around 1450 yuan/ton, a rise of over 36%, driven by macro - policies and the "anti - involution" sentiment. In August, the market sentiment cooled, and the price declined due to delivery pressure and high mid - stream inventory. In September, the price fluctuated as the market lacked a clear trading theme [2][3]. Soda Ash - In Q3 2025, the soda ash price center moved up from 1100 - 1200 yuan/ton to 1300 - 1400 yuan/ton. In July, the main 09 contract rose to over 1450 yuan/ton, a rise of about 24%, driven by macro - policies and speculative demand. In August, the market returned to reality. Although supply and inventory pressure were high, the price was supported near delivery, showing anti - decline characteristics [7]. Chapter 3: Core Concerns of Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Monitor the mid - stream inventory depletion. High inventory in Shahe and Hubei needs to be digested by the end - market in the peak season; otherwise, the price may decline. Hubei's situation is crucial for pricing [19]. - Pay attention to the realization of cost - increase expectations. There are policy pressures for coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe this quarter and in Hubei by the end of 2026. Coal prices may also be affected by policies [21]. - Track whether the supply side can continue to clear. The current daily melting volume is relatively low, and marginal changes in supply will affect the price [22]. Soda Ash - Watch for "policy - related stories" on the supply side. Policy - driven production cuts may change the supply - demand balance, and unexpected supply reduction may lead to significant price elasticity [22][23]. - Focus on the cost - increase expectations of coal and raw salt prices. Coal accounts for 35% - 40% of the cost, and raw salt prices may rise [24]. Chapter 4: Glass Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook Glass Supply - As of the end of September 2025, the float glass daily melting volume was around 16.1 - 16.2 million tons, slightly higher than expected. Some production lines may resume production in Q4, but there is no cold - repair expectation. Policy - related coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and Hubei may affect supply and cost [25][26]. Glass Valuation - Gas - fired production lines are in a loss, while coal - fired and petroleum - coke - fired production lines are profitable. There is a policy trend for coal - and petroleum - coke - fired lines to switch to gas, which will increase costs. Glass is in a low - valuation state, and its price increase may lead to over - supply due to increased production expectations [30][31]. Glass Demand - From January to August 2025, real - estate data was weak, which restricted glass demand. From January to September 2025, glass apparent demand declined by 6.5% - 7.0%. Although Q3 was better than Q2, high mid - stream inventory limited the upward elasticity of glass prices. Seasonally, Q4 demand may improve, but mid - stream inventory depletion needs to be observed [34]. Glass Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - Based on the average daily apparent demand in Q3, glass is in a basic balance in Q4. The annual supply and demand growth rates are - 6.3% and - 7% respectively. Marginal changes in supply or demand will determine price elasticity [48]. Chapter 5: Soda Ash Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook Long - term Supply Pressure - In H1 2025, soda ash production capacity increased from 38.9 million tons to 41.1 million tons. Yuangxing Phase II with 2.8 - million - ton capacity was ignited in mid - September. High supply is expected in Q4, and the daily output may be above 105,000 tons [51][56]. Valuation Disputes vs. Cost Increase - In Q3, coal and raw salt prices increased, driving up soda ash costs by 80 - 90 yuan/ton. Different production processes and regions have different costs. Market valuation is affected by the difficulty of marginal production capacity exit and cost - increase expectations [61][62]. Soda Ash Demand and Export - Float glass and photovoltaic glass are the main demand sources for soda ash. Float glass production may decline by 6% - 6.5%, and photovoltaic glass by 9% - 10%, dragging down soda ash demand by 4 - 5 percentage points. From January to August 2025, soda ash net exports were nearly 1.35 million tons, and monthly exports are expected to remain at 160,000 - 200,000 tons [72]. Soda Ash Surplus and High Inventory - Soda ash inventory is at a high level, and the market consensus is surplus. In Q4, demand may improve slightly, but supply will remain high, and the surplus situation is difficult to reverse [85]. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - In Q4, soda ash production is expected to remain high, with an annual growth rate of 2.5% - 3%. Demand will be stable, and exports will remain high. The supply - demand balance will remain in surplus, with an average daily surplus of about 10,000 tons [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include supply contraction expectations and the current weak balance state of glass and high - production and high - inventory situation of soda ash. The trading logic lies in expectations that are difficult to be falsified in the short term [1]. - In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows. The情绪 for glass has not fully released [6]. - The demand for glass is currently weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches, and the demand for soda ash remains stable [54][66]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply contraction expectations: There may be industrial policies. For glass, there are disturbances such as coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, and there is an expectation of petroleum coke - to - gas conversion next year, which implies cost increase. Soda ash has no clear indication and its price fluctuates with glass or market sentiment [1]. - In reality, glass is in a weak balance with high middle - stream inventories, and without real production cuts, the upward price elasticity is limited. Soda ash has high production and high inventories, with strong upward pressure, but the price is supported by expectations [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Glass has general real - world demand but some speculative demand, and the middle - stream still has "water - storage capacity". Soda ash follows coal prices and glass, but is suppressed by high near - term inventories and production, while upstream soda ash plants currently have limited pressure due to downstream replenishment at low prices [2]. - Long - term trading expectations: There are expectations of cost increase, mainly from coal prices, and whether the supply contraction expectations will be fulfilled, mainly related to industrial policies. When the expectations cannot be falsified, the futures market may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows [6]. - Month - spread strategy: Without substantial cold - repair or production cuts in glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [6]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider going long on glass and short on soda ash [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range of glass is predicted to be 1000 - 1400, and that of soda ash is 1100 - 1500 [6]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are recommended for glass and soda ash in terms of inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading and option trading [6]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: The average price of glass in Shahe decreased slightly, and prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - Glass futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of glass futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [9]. - Soda ash spot prices: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable [11]. - Soda ash futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: There were rumors of a glass industry symposium, and relevant departments issued a work plan for the building materials industry. The upstream inventories of glass and soda ash decreased, with glass inventory (factory warehouse) down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year, and soda ash factory inventory down 10.41 tons week - on - week [13]. - Bearish information: The inventory of Shahe's spot - futures reached a new high this year, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased, with the total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses at an absolute high [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies [16]. - The downstream transmission situation after the spot price increase [16]. - Track daily production and sales [16]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation - Unilateral trends and capital movements: The main contracts of glass and soda ash maintained a position of over one million hands, in line with the seasonality. The price difference between the two narrowed, and neither showed a good trend. Glass once rose due to supply contraction expectations and spot price increases, but then declined as the sentiment subsided [16]. - Basis and month - spread structure: Glass generally maintains a C - structure, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread idea is maintained in logic. Soda ash also maintains a C - structure, with limited short - term month - spread opportunities [31][33]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Glass: The theoretical cost changes little. Natural gas production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines still have profits. Glass factories have limited willingness to cold - repair at current prices [38]. - Soda ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1170 yuan/ton, and the full cost is 1300 - 1320 yuan/ton. The full cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is 1200 yuan/ton. There are still profits in the soda ash industrial chain at current prices [38]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 5 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.2% - 1.3% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [45]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 16 tons, accounting for 5.6% of the apparent demand, and the export in August was slightly higher than expected, maintaining high expectations [45]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting of glass has slightly increased, and there may be ignition plans for some production lines in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and industrial policies on glass production capacity [49]. - Soda ash supply: The production of soda ash fluctuates slightly with planned maintenance, and high supply is maintained [52]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: This week, the spot price increase improved the shipment, but the overall demand is weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches [54]. - Soda ash demand: The daily melting of float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the rigid demand for soda ash remains stable. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved significantly [66]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The factory inventory of glass decreased, but the middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei are at a high level [75]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory of soda ash decreased, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse increased. The total inventory decreased, and the pressure on soda ash plants continued to ease [76].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views - The core contradiction lies in the conflict between macro - expectations and industrial logic. There are disagreements in far - month pricing without a clear direction, and the destocking ability of the mid - stream during the peak season needs to be observed [2] - For glass, upstream and mid - stream inventories are high, and the phased restocking ability is weak. The supply - side daily melting is around 160,000 tons with a slight increase expectation. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 6 - 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] - For纯碱, the medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high. Normal maintenance continues, and in the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and the inventory has been reduced to a relatively low level. The overall rigid demand for纯碱 is stable, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [3] Group 3: Price Forecast - The monthly price range of glass is predicted to be 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 26.34% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.2%. The monthly price range of纯碱 is predicted to be 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.83% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.7% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell FG2601 futures and FG601C1400 call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1400 for futures and 40 - 50 for options [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy FG2601 futures and sell FG601P1100 put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1100 - 1150 for futures and 50 - 60 for options [1] 纯碱 - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell SA2601 futures and SA601C1500 call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1550 - 1600 for futures and 50 - 60 for options [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy SA2601 futures and sell SA601P1200 put options to lock in procurement costs. The hedging ratio is 50%, with a recommended entry range of 1200 - 1250 for futures and 40 - 50 for options [1] Group 5: Market Price and Spread Glass - On September 10, 2025, the price of the glass 05 contract was 1279, down 10 (- 0.78%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 995, down 35 (- 3.4%); the 01 contract was 1181, down 11 (- 0.92%) [4] - The average price of glass in the Shahe area on September 10, 2025, was 1162.4, down 3.6 from the previous day [5] 纯碱 - On September 10, 2025, the price of the 纯碱 05 contract was 1353, down 5 (- 0.37%) from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1162, up 3 (0.26%); the 01 contract was 1281, up 3 (0.23%) [6] - The market price of heavy 纯碱 in the Shahe area on September 10, 2025, was 1186, up 3 from the previous day [7]