前几天和朋友们聊天，大家都在讨论最近的汇率变化。有朋友拿着手机问我："你看看这人民币汇率， 是不是又要跌破7.1了？"我一看，好家伙，7.0905！这朋友显然把升值当成贬值了。今天咱们就来聊聊 这个话题，看看人民币汇率和外资流向的真实情况究竟如何。 记得今年三季度的时候，还有不少声音在说外资要"逃离"中国市场。确实，当时北向资金出现了比较大 的流出，单季度净流出超过1500亿元。但是我们看数据就知道，这只是短期的调整。截至三季度末，北 向资金持有A股市值达到2.58万亿元，年内持仓市值累计增加超过3800亿元，而且是连续三个季度实现 增长。 这说明什么？说明外资并没有真正"逃离"，反而在趁着市场波动的机会加仓中国资产。就像我们平时买 东西一样，价格便宜的时候不正是入手的好时机吗？ 从具体的数据来看，外资的"抄底"行为还是挺明显的。根据深沪交易所公布的境外投资者持股信息，仅 11月18日一天，就有3只股票的境外投资者持股比例超过24%，其中还有1只超过28%。这种持股比例， 已经接近监管设定的上限了。 说起汇率这事儿，咱们普通人确实容易搞混。数字越小，人民币其实越值钱。就像买东西一样，原来1 美元要换7.3人民 ...

Core Insights - The operating conditions of small and micro enterprises have improved, with a reduction in loss and stagnation rates [3][4] - Market expectations and investment inclination have both declined, indicating a cautious outlook among businesses [6][12] - Cost pressures have eased, but issues such as weak consumer demand and intense competition remain prominent [8][9] - Policy support has weakened, leading to a lower perception of the business environment [11][12] - Financing demand has decreased, while the cost of borrowing has slightly declined [14][18] - The rate of digitalization has dropped, although online sales are showing signs of recovery [20][23] Group 1: Operating Conditions - The loss rate among sample entities was 6.5% in Q2 2025, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The stagnation rate was 11.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, but an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The profitability index remained stable at 70.2, while the revenue growth index increased slightly to 51.7 [3][4] Group 2: Market Expectations and Investment - The market expectation index fell to 67.7, down 0.5 from the previous quarter and 2.0 from the same period last year [6] - The investment inclination index dropped to 62.4%, marking a decline of 1.6 from the previous quarter and the lowest level in ten quarters [6] Group 3: Cost Pressures and Competition - Coverage of rising labor costs, high rents, and raw material price increases decreased to 39.3%, 37.9%, and 35.3% respectively [8] - Consumer willingness to spend and homogenized competition issues increased, with both reaching new highs at 36.8% [8] Group 4: Policy Support - Coverage of supportive policies such as preferential interest rates and tax reductions decreased, with the overall perception of the business environment remaining negative at -4.4 [9][11] Group 5: Financing Trends - The total financing demand dropped to 66.6%, the lowest in ten quarters, while the actual financing gap remained stable at 33.6% [14][16] - The comprehensive borrowing rate decreased to 5.32%, with bank rates falling to 4.23% and non-bank rates slightly rising to 5.98% [18] Group 6: Digitalization and Online Sales - The online presence rate fell to 62.6%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [20] - Online sales growth is recovering, with 33.1% of entities reporting faster online sales growth, although the gap with offline sales is narrowing [23]