策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.11.22 2025-11-24 避险情绪下内外资一致性流入价值板块 [Table_Authors] ——11 月第 3 周全球外资周观察 本报告导读： ① 北向资金：最近一周可能小幅净流出，其中灵活型外资可能小幅净流出。②港 股：最近一周稳定型外资流入-267 港元，灵活型外资流入 13 亿港元，港股通流 入 277 亿港元。③亚太市场：外资本周流入日本，10 月流入印度。④美欧市 场：9 月资金流入欧洲，流入美国。 投资要点： 研 究 海 外 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 策 略 [Table_Report] [Table_Summary] 北 向资金 ：最近 一周北向 资金可 能 大幅 净流出。 最近一周 （2025/11/17-2025/11/21，下同）交易日期间北向资金估算净流出 183 亿元，前一周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14，下同）估算净流出 50 亿元。最近一周交易日期间灵活型外资估算净流出 77 亿元，前一周 估算净流入 10 亿元。此外，我们汇总最近一周陆股通每日前十大活 跃个股， ...

前几天和朋友们聊天，大家都在讨论最近的汇率变化。有朋友拿着手机问我："你看看这人民币汇率， 是不是又要跌破7.1了？"我一看，好家伙，7.0905！这朋友显然把升值当成贬值了。今天咱们就来聊聊 这个话题，看看人民币汇率和外资流向的真实情况究竟如何。 记得今年三季度的时候，还有不少声音在说外资要"逃离"中国市场。确实，当时北向资金出现了比较大 的流出，单季度净流出超过1500亿元。但是我们看数据就知道，这只是短期的调整。截至三季度末，北 向资金持有A股市值达到2.58万亿元，年内持仓市值累计增加超过3800亿元，而且是连续三个季度实现 增长。 这说明什么？说明外资并没有真正"逃离"，反而在趁着市场波动的机会加仓中国资产。就像我们平时买 东西一样，价格便宜的时候不正是入手的好时机吗？ 从具体的数据来看，外资的"抄底"行为还是挺明显的。根据深沪交易所公布的境外投资者持股信息，仅 11月18日一天，就有3只股票的境外投资者持股比例超过24%，其中还有1只超过28%。这种持股比例， 已经接近监管设定的上限了。 说起汇率这事儿，咱们普通人确实容易搞混。数字越小，人民币其实越值钱。就像买东西一样，原来1 美元要换7.3人民 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a temporary adjustment but is expected to rebound, presenting a good opportunity for investment as the economic fundamentals remain stable and resilient [1] - In October, the Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a decline due to external factors such as tariffs, with the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 8.6%, the Hang Seng Index by 3.5%, the Hang Seng Composite Index by 3.9%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 4.0% [1] - The performance of various sectors in October showed that utilities, finance, and materials sectors performed relatively well, while healthcare, information technology, and consumer staples lagged behind [1] Group 2 - The AH share premium index saw a slight recovery, rising to 120 by October 31, up 2.2% from 117 at the end of September, indicating it is at a historically low level since 2016 [2] Group 3 - The valuation levels of major Hong Kong stock indices slightly decreased, with the Hang Seng Index PE at 11.7, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index PE at 10.5, and the Hang Seng Technology Index PE at 22.9, all indicating low historical valuation levels [3] - Specific sectors such as utilities, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples are still at relatively low valuation levels, with the utilities index PE at 12.3, consumer discretionary at 22.8, and consumer staples at 23.8, reflecting their respective historical percentiles [3] Group 4 - Foreign capital outflow from the Hong Kong market has slowed down, with a net outflow of 669 million HKD in October, while southbound funds continue to flow significantly into the market, with a cumulative inflow exceeding 1.1 trillion RMB for the year [4] - In October, the net inflow of southbound funds reached 849 million RMB, contributing to a total cumulative inflow of 11.691 billion RMB for the year, marking a new high in recent years [4]

Group 1 - Recent week saw a potential small net inflow of northbound funds estimated at 10 billion yuan, reversing the previous week's outflow of 11.3 billion yuan [2] - Flexible foreign capital estimated a net inflow of 6.8 billion yuan in the recent week, compared to a net outflow of 5 billion yuan in the prior week [2] - Active stocks in the northbound trading included Zhongji Xuchuang with a total transaction amount of 19.7 billion yuan, accounting for 10% of the stock's weekly trading volume [2] Group 2 - Total capital inflow into the Hong Kong stock market was 9.5 billion HKD in the recent week, with stable foreign capital outflow of 5.8 billion HKD and flexible foreign capital inflow of 12 billion HKD [5] - Hong Kong Stock Connect saw an inflow of 11.4 billion HKD, while local funds from Hong Kong or mainland China experienced an outflow of 7.1 billion HKD [5] Group 3 - In terms of industry, stable foreign capital primarily flowed into software services (6.2 billion HKD), textiles and apparel (2.3 billion HKD), and discretionary retail (2.3 billion HKD) [7] - Flexible foreign capital saw significant inflows into ETFs (8.6 billion HKD) and non-bank financials (3.6 billion HKD), while it experienced outflows from discretionary retail (-3 billion HKD) and biopharmaceuticals (-2 billion HKD) [7] - Hong Kong Stock Connect saw major inflows into banking (4.4 billion HKD) and telecommunications services (3.2 billion HKD), while ETFs experienced an outflow of 10.5 billion HKD [7] Group 4 - In the Asia-Pacific market, foreign capital inflow into Japan was 183.3 billion JPY, while there was an outflow of 2.7 billion USD from the Indian stock market in September [13] - In the US and European markets, global mutual funds saw a net inflow of 25.5 billion USD into the US equity market in September, while European markets experienced mixed inflows [14]

Macro Analysis - The increase in tariffs has only raised the average U.S. import tax rate by 6.6 percentage points as of June 2024, which is lower than market expectations. The low proportion of taxable goods and changes in import structure are key reasons for this outcome [2][3] - U.S. companies are currently bearing approximately 63% of the tariff costs, while consumers are responsible for less than 40%. This cost distribution may change as inventory is depleted and trade policy uncertainties decrease [3] - If the average U.S. import tax rate rises by 10% within the year, it could push the PCE year-on-year growth rate to 3.1% and the core PCE to 3.4%, assuming stable demand [3] Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue rising, with the index likely to reach new highs. Factors supporting this outlook include accelerated economic transformation, declining risk-free interest rates, and capital market reforms [6][7] - There is an anticipated expansion in market trends, with increased allocations towards mid-cap stocks and undervalued blue-chip stocks. The improvement in traditional industries and a focus on domestic demand are also contributing to this positive outlook [8][9] Industry Comparison - Emerging technology is seen as a primary investment focus, while cyclical financial sectors are viewed as potential dark horses. The Hong Kong stock market is expected to rebound [9][10] - Recommendations include sectors such as AI applications, consumer goods, and high-end equipment, with a particular emphasis on companies benefiting from technological upgrades and policy support [10] Foreign Investment Trends - Following the Fed's shift towards rate cuts, foreign capital may return to Hong Kong stocks, which have seen a historical low in foreign investment allocation. Recent signs indicate a potential stabilization in foreign capital flows [13][14] - Foreign investment preferences in Hong Kong are heavily weighted towards technology and financial sectors, with a notable focus on companies with strong fundamentals and profitability [14][15] Investment Recommendations - The beauty and personal care sector is expected to see significant growth, with a recommendation for selective investment in companies demonstrating product and channel innovation [17][18] - The first half of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 7.2% and a net profit growth of 1.9% in the beauty sector, with personal care outperforming cosmetics and medical aesthetics [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in A-shares, attributing it primarily to foreign capital flows rather than retail investors, highlighting the influence of U.S. interest rate changes on global capital movement [3][9]. Group 1: Retail Investors - Retail investors are not the main driving force behind the recent market surge, as their buying power is highly dispersed and lacks the ability to form a decisive impact [4][5]. - Retail investors tend to chase trends, buying during upswings but are unlikely to counteract downward trends [5][6]. Group 2: Main Players in the Market - The primary influence on the market comes from foreign capital, which is significantly affected by U.S. interest rate policies [6][9]. - When the U.S. raises interest rates, capital flows into the U.S., while a decrease leads to capital flowing out, impacting other markets, including China [7][8]. Group 3: Currency and Market Correlation - There is a notable correlation between the RMB exchange rate and the performance of the stock market, with RMB appreciation generally leading to stock market gains and depreciation leading to losses [13][15]. - The article illustrates that from April to the present, the RMB has been in an appreciation phase, which correlates with a stronger performance in A-shares [15][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While current foreign capital inflows are positive for the market, predicting future movements based on currency fluctuations remains challenging [19][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that foreign capital experienced accelerated outflows from Hong Kong stocks in April and May, but began to return in June, primarily flowing into the technology sector [1] - In Q2, Hong Kong stocks saw an overall outflow of approximately 150 billion HKD, with long-term stable foreign capital accounting for a significant portion of this outflow, totaling around 120 billion HKD, while short-term flexible foreign capital contributed to an outflow of about 30 billion HKD [1] - The article highlights that in Q2, foreign capital mainly flowed into software services and technology hardware sectors in Hong Kong, while it saw outflows from banks, retail, and pharmaceutical sectors [1] Group 2 - For A-shares, the data from the Northbound trading indicates an overall inflow of 58.5 billion CNY in Q2, with a net inflow of approximately 11.4 billion CNY after excluding Chinese custodial funds [1] - Long-term stable foreign capital in A-shares saw an inflow of 51 billion CNY, while short-term flexible foreign capital experienced an outflow of 39.5 billion CNY [1] - The article notes that foreign capital in A-shares primarily increased its allocation to dividend stocks, new energy, and non-bank sectors, while reducing allocations in home appliances, food and beverage, and machinery sectors [1]

Core Insights - The market consensus remains fragmented despite the easing of US-China tariffs, with various funds showing interest in different sectors such as dividends, themes, large-cap growth, and export chains [1][2] - Active foreign capital has seen a net outflow, while passive foreign capital continues to flow into the A-share market, indicating a structural divergence in foreign investment [3][56] - Industrial capital is providing support to the A-share market, with significant increases in share buybacks compared to the previous year [4][65] Group 1: Fund Allocation and Market Dynamics - Retail investors have shown a preference for defensive dividend stocks, with net inflows into banking and transportation sectors, while experiencing outflows from electronics and machinery [2][11] - Financing funds are focusing on industries with improving fundamentals and thematic catalysts, such as defense and military [2][19] - Private equity funds are concentrating their research on large-cap growth sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics [2][50] Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In the recent period, foreign capital saw a net inflow of 21.8 billion yuan, with active foreign capital experiencing a net outflow of 7.2 billion yuan, while passive foreign capital recorded a net inflow of 29 billion yuan [3][56] - Regional and global allocation-type foreign funds have increased their positions in A-shares, with Asian allocation funds reaching 89% of their levels since 2020 [3][56] Group 3: Industrial Capital and Market Support - The A-share market has faced four consecutive weeks of net outflows from ETFs, totaling 263 billion yuan, with significant support from industrial capital through share buybacks [4][41] - The average weekly buyback amount in 2025 has risen to 68 billion yuan, compared to 43 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a strong trend in corporate buybacks [4][71] Group 4: Fundraising and Market Activity - The number of new equity funds launched has decreased, with only 48 billion yuan in new equity fund shares issued last week, reflecting a decline in fundraising activity [32][33] - The net reduction of significant shareholders in the secondary market amounted to 43 billion yuan, with a weekly unlock market value of 306 billion yuan [65][74]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a significant slowdown in southbound capital inflows since late April, with net outflows observed on 5 out of the last 10 trading days, contrasting sharply with the rapid inflows seen from February to mid-April [1] - As of the end of Q1, the domestic actively managed equity funds' holdings in Hong Kong stocks reached a historical high of 30.8%, suggesting that institutional "bullets" may not be as plentiful as previously thought [1] - The estimated incremental southbound capital for the year is projected to be around HKD 200-300 billion, with total inflows expected to reach approximately HKD 800-1,000 billion for the year [1] Group 2 - In the recent week, there was a cumulative net inflow of HKD 7.27 billion over four trading days, significantly higher than the HKD 1.24 billion inflow in the three trading days before the May Day holiday, with an average daily inflow of HKD 1.82 billion compared to HKD 0.41 billion the previous week [2] - The stocks with the highest inflows included Meituan, China Construction Bank, and Alibaba, while Tencent, Xiaomi Group, and SMIC saw the most selling [2] Group 3 - According to EPFR data, there was an expansion in active foreign capital outflows, with USD 0.4 million flowing out of A-shares and USD 1.2 million from Hong Kong stocks and ADRs, indicating a shift in fund focus towards China and emerging markets [3] - Conversely, passive foreign capital turned to inflows, with USD 2.6 million flowing into A-shares and USD 3.7 million into Hong Kong stocks and ADRs, primarily from funds focused on China, emerging markets, and global markets [3] - As of the end of March, the allocation of major global active funds to China was 6.8%, down from 13% in early 2018 and 15% in early 2021, indicating a slight increase from 6.5% at the end of February but still reflecting a low allocation compared to benchmarks [3]