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国泰海通|海外策略:Q2外围波折下外资撤离了吗——2025Q2股市外资季度动向跟踪
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-07-09 14:38
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that foreign capital experienced accelerated outflows from Hong Kong stocks in April and May, but began to return in June, primarily flowing into the technology sector [1] - In Q2, Hong Kong stocks saw an overall outflow of approximately 150 billion HKD, with long-term stable foreign capital accounting for a significant portion of this outflow, totaling around 120 billion HKD, while short-term flexible foreign capital contributed to an outflow of about 30 billion HKD [1] - The article highlights that in Q2, foreign capital mainly flowed into software services and technology hardware sectors in Hong Kong, while it saw outflows from banks, retail, and pharmaceutical sectors [1] Group 2 - For A-shares, the data from the Northbound trading indicates an overall inflow of 58.5 billion CNY in Q2, with a net inflow of approximately 11.4 billion CNY after excluding Chinese custodial funds [1] - Long-term stable foreign capital in A-shares saw an inflow of 51 billion CNY, while short-term flexible foreign capital experienced an outflow of 39.5 billion CNY [1] - The article notes that foreign capital in A-shares primarily increased its allocation to dividend stocks, new energy, and non-bank sectors, while reducing allocations in home appliances, food and beverage, and machinery sectors [1]
资金透视:资金共识仍待凝聚
HTSC· 2025-05-20 03:19
Core Insights - The market consensus remains fragmented despite the easing of US-China tariffs, with various funds showing interest in different sectors such as dividends, themes, large-cap growth, and export chains [1][2] - Active foreign capital has seen a net outflow, while passive foreign capital continues to flow into the A-share market, indicating a structural divergence in foreign investment [3][56] - Industrial capital is providing support to the A-share market, with significant increases in share buybacks compared to the previous year [4][65] Group 1: Fund Allocation and Market Dynamics - Retail investors have shown a preference for defensive dividend stocks, with net inflows into banking and transportation sectors, while experiencing outflows from electronics and machinery [2][11] - Financing funds are focusing on industries with improving fundamentals and thematic catalysts, such as defense and military [2][19] - Private equity funds are concentrating their research on large-cap growth sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics [2][50] Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In the recent period, foreign capital saw a net inflow of 21.8 billion yuan, with active foreign capital experiencing a net outflow of 7.2 billion yuan, while passive foreign capital recorded a net inflow of 29 billion yuan [3][56] - Regional and global allocation-type foreign funds have increased their positions in A-shares, with Asian allocation funds reaching 89% of their levels since 2020 [3][56] Group 3: Industrial Capital and Market Support - The A-share market has faced four consecutive weeks of net outflows from ETFs, totaling 263 billion yuan, with significant support from industrial capital through share buybacks [4][41] - The average weekly buyback amount in 2025 has risen to 68 billion yuan, compared to 43 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a strong trend in corporate buybacks [4][71] Group 4: Fundraising and Market Activity - The number of new equity funds launched has decreased, with only 48 billion yuan in new equity fund shares issued last week, reflecting a decline in fundraising activity [32][33] - The net reduction of significant shareholders in the secondary market amounted to 43 billion yuan, with a weekly unlock market value of 306 billion yuan [65][74]
中金:预计后续年内相对确定的南向增量约为2000-3000亿港元
智通财经网· 2025-05-10 07:22
智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,4月下旬以来,南向资金流入明显放缓,4月23日以来的10个交易 日中有5日净流出,与2月起自4月中旬的快速大幅流入呈现明显分化。中金测算,公募与保险等机构 的"子弹"可能并没有想的那么多。截至一季度末,内地主动偏股型基金港股持仓已经达到30.8%的历史 新高。该行预计后续年内相对确定的南向增量约为2,000-3,000亿港元,全年累计流入 8,000-10,000亿港 元左右。 中金主要观点如下: 南向资金方面,本周四个交易日累计净流入72.7亿港元(vs. 五一节前三个交易日流入12.4亿港元),日 均流入18.2亿港元(vs. 上周日均流入4.1亿港元)。个股层面,流入最多的为美团、建设银行与阿里巴 巴等,但卖出腾讯、小米集团与中芯国际等。 外资方面,EPFR口径(截至本周三): 主动外资流出扩大,流出A股0.4亿美元(vs. 上周流出0.2亿美元),流出港股和ADR 1.2亿美元(vs. 上 周流出0.8亿美元);流出较多的为专注中国与新兴市场等类型基金。 被动外资转为流入,A股流入2.6亿美元(vs. 上周流出4.3亿美元),港股和ADR转为流入3.7亿美元 (vs ...