所有这些都使得鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲受到的审查愈发严格。 鲍威尔上个月称劳动力市场状况良好，政策也处于有利地位。投资者们会密切关注这两方面的评价任何细微变化——哪怕只是微小的变化——因 为这都可能为美联储在 9 月 16 日至 17 日的下次会议上采取行动打开大门。但鉴于在此之前还有更多经济数据即将公布，鲍威尔可能会更倾向于 谨慎地调整其表态。 对于美联储主席鲍威尔来说，周五在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度演讲可以成为传达政策变动的契机。去年，鲍威尔正是以此为契机提出了政 策调整，并不久后便实施了大幅降息。如今，他还面临着来自美国总统特朗普的巨大压力，要求他再次降息。 问题在于，关键的经济指标并非都表明这种情况会持续下去。几周前，当最新的非农就业报告显示就业人数出现下滑时，降息的理由似乎已基本 无可辩驳。随后，美国的PPI出现了三年来最大的涨幅——这加剧了人们对由关税引发的通胀的担忧，而这也使得美联储官员今年迄今一直未采取 行动。 非农走弱与PPI火热，市场降息预期波动 瑞银证券首席美国经济学家Jonathan Pingle表示："尽管我预计他在下次会议上会总体上指出利率将会降低，但我确实认为他会以完全依赖数 ...

全球金融市场正屏息以待周五的杰克逊霍尔"全球央行年会"，美联储主席鲍威尔将在当天晚间发表致 辞。 近年来，鲍威尔曾多次在这一场合发表过对市场影响巨大的政策声明，而在当前市场宽松预期高涨的背 景下，鲍威尔这次讲话释放的任何信号将显得尤为关键。 尽管交易员相信疲软的就业市场已为鲍威尔"放鸽"打开大门，但多家华尔街大行却纷纷出面"唱反调"。 巴克莱和美银均认为，当前支持美联储降息的理由并不充分，因为劳动力市场仍具韧性，而在关税政策 的扰动下，通胀仍有上行风险。 考虑到距离9月会议还有一系列数据尚未公布，野村预计鲍威尔不会在周五给出"明确承诺"，美银甚至 预计鲍威尔会秉持强硬的鹰派立场，与市场的宽松预期相悖。大摩则预计，鲍威尔会在讲话中继续强调 通胀风险，抵制市场的降息预期。 巴克莱：市场过于自信了，降息背景和去年截然不同 因此，报告认为，从经济数据看，今年支持降息的理由远不如去年充分。 报告还指出，鲍威尔在7月会议后的鹰派言论，似乎并未被后续的经济数据所推翻。他当时已预警，考 虑到修正因素，就业增长的实际速度可能接近于零，并强调失业率仍处于低位——而7月的就业报告恰 好印证了这一观点。 巴克莱银行分析师Christ ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Hoover Institution conference at Stanford University highlighted the challenges facing the Federal Reserve in achieving its inflation target of 2% while gradually lowering interest rates, suggesting that this "mission" may never be fully accomplished and indicating a potential redefinition of the Fed's role in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Evolving Role - The Federal Reserve has transitioned from a mere monetary policy maker to a "super central bank" that actively intervenes in crises, a role it has played for the past 30 years [1]. - There is a growing consensus that the era of aggressive Fed intervention is nearing its end, with future policies expected to be more restrained and limited [1][3]. - Criticism has emerged regarding the Fed's current policy tools and theoretical frameworks, with calls for a focus on ensuring monetary predictability to support economic contracts rather than solely controlling inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Critiques and Recommendations - Harvard professor Jason Furman criticized the Fed for its "confused framework" and urged for clearer, more predictable rules instead of reactive measures [2]. - Cleveland Fed's new president, Loretta Mester, suggested a reevaluation of the Fed's balance sheet and the long-term impacts of quantitative easing and tightening policies [2]. - Concerns were raised about the brevity of current policy decision memos, which may lead to market instability due to excessive speculation on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statements [2]. Group 3: Future Leadership and Policy Directions - Powell's term is set to end in May next year, with speculation that his successor may be Kevin Walsh, who advocates for a less interventionist Fed focused solely on inflation control [3]. - Another potential successor, Michelle Bowman, also leans towards a more lenient regulatory stance, indicating a shift within the Fed [3]. - The Fed is expected to release a new policy framework review this summer, but skepticism exists regarding its effectiveness before leadership changes occur [3]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Under Walsh's potential leadership, the Fed may adopt a more restrained approach, which could leave it "under-armed" in the event of a future financial crisis [4]. - Furman noted that the economy is entering a new phase, raising doubts about whether inflation can decrease further even without new tariffs from Trump [4].