Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - During the Two Sessions, the expectation of policy - driven stable growth provides demand support for the infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, and the "anti - involution" policy adjustment strengthens the price bottom support. Geopolitical risks increase energy valuations and shipping costs, strengthening cost - side support. However, the current steel inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the fundamental contradictions remain unresolved, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, the first round of coke price cuts has started, and there is still pressure on coking coal supply, so the upward driving force of the sector is limited [1] - Overall, it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, the peak - season expectations are cautious, the upward driving force of the market is limited, and there is a risk of a high - level correction after the price rally. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the realization of peak - season demand [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The supply - side shipments have recovered but there are still disturbance expectations. The pressure of high shipments and high inventory is difficult to relieve in the short term. With the end of the Spring Festival, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large, and iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly [2][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term supply - demand weakness pattern in the scrap steel market is gradually improving. Demand recovery is slightly faster than supply, and the fundamentals provide some support for prices, which are expected to oscillate [2][9] 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Although there are short - term disturbances in hot metal, there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. After the first round of spot price cuts, the possibility of further cuts is small, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [2][11] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, but under the high import of Mongolian coal, there is still real - world pressure on the fundamentals of coking coal. The spot is expected to run weakly and stably, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely [2][12] 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There is resistance in cost - side downward transmission, and the upstream inventory is high. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures price, and there is a risk of correction when the futures price rises above the cost line [2][16] - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, weakening the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of high - level correction when the futures valuation quickly recovers above the cost line [2][17] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply still has disturbance expectations, but the inventory of middle and downstream is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no obvious improvement in demand after the Lantern Festival, high inventory will always suppress prices [3][6][13] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [6][13][15] 5. Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering. After the Spring Festival, the output of rebar has increased, but the output of hot - rolled coils has decreased slightly. The overall output of the five major steel products has changed little. Demand is slowly recovering, but it is still at a low level. Steel inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental contradictions need time to be resolved. The upward driving force of the market is limited, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand [8] 6. Commodity Index - On March 5, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2510.23, up 1.04%; the commodity 20 index was 2869.81, up 1.11%; the industrial products index was 2430.86, up 1.36%. The steel industry chain index on March 5, 2026, was 1929.45, with a daily increase of 0.38%, a 5 - day increase of 1.42%, a 1 - month decrease of 2.30%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.36% [102][104]