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大行评级丨摩根大通:政策预期升温推动内房股升势 首选华润置地、华润万象生活等
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-13 02:56
Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in Chinese property stocks is primarily driven by increasing policy expectations, with the potential for this outperformance to continue until the next government meeting in late November or December [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The fundamentals of the industry indicate a rising probability of new policy support [1] - The preferred stocks in the sector include China Resources Land, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, and China Jinmao [1] - Longfor Group is considered to have the best risk-reward ratio amid the policy-driven rebound [1] Group 2: Hong Kong Real Estate Stocks - The upward trend in Hong Kong real estate stocks is attributed to increased confidence in the market recovery [1] - Despite a positive outlook on the market, valuations of residential stocks have fully reflected the expectations of a comprehensive recovery, with Sun Hung Kai Properties' adjusted stock price reaching historical highs while the secondary property price index remains 26% below its peak [1] - Currently, the risk-reward profile for rental property stocks is viewed as more favorable, with top picks being Swire Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Link REIT, and Wharf Real Estate Investment Company [1] - Among developers, the company favors Sino Land and Henderson Land [1]
光大证券:市场短期内或进入宽幅震荡阶段
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-12 00:21
Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to enter a phase of wide fluctuations in the short term due to high valuations and cautious capital, alongside uncertainties in US-China relations [1] Market Conditions - Recent market increases have led to relatively high valuations, causing some capital to be cautious [1] - Uncertainties in US-China relations may lead to a decline in market risk appetite [1] Policy and Economic Factors - The upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session is likely to raise market policy expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve still has room for interest rate cuts within the year, which may support the market [1] Sector Focus - In the short term, the focus should be on high-dividend and consumer sectors [1] - In the medium term, attention should shift to TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and advanced manufacturing sectors [1]