2025 年 08 月 1 日 研 Meta(META.O):AI 重构广告生态，算力军备竞赛 领跑全球 究 报 告 推荐(维持) 事件 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 计算机(申万) | 12.1 | 10.3 | 60.5 | | 300 沪深 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 14.7 | 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 1、《计算机行业点评报告：特斯拉 （TSLA.O）：Robotaxi 开启 AI 商业 化，储能业务构筑第二增长曲线》 2025-07-29 KimiK2 测试成绩优秀，OpenAI 正式 推出通用智能体》2025-07-24 Researcher、K2 双线突破，强化学 习革新与开源智能的双擎驱动》 2025-07-21 行 业 2025 年 7 月 30 日，Meta 公布了截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日的 2025 财年第二财季业绩，公司第二财季营收 475.16 亿美 元，同比增长 22%；净利润同比增长 36%至 183.37 亿美元。 分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoy ...

Core Viewpoint - Google is facing significant challenges in the digital advertising market, with a declining market share compared to competitors like Meta. However, its current valuation is much lower, which reduces the safety margin for continuing to hold a bearish view on the stock [1][3]. Advertising Market Performance - Google's advertising revenue growth is lagging behind the overall industry, with a 1-year CAGR of 8.5%, compared to Meta's 19.3% and the total advertising market's 14.4% [4]. - The removal of the de minimis exemption is expected to create further headwinds for Google's advertising business, particularly affecting retailers in the Asia-Pacific region [6]. Profitability and Cost Management - Despite challenges in advertising revenue, Google has shown resilience in profitability, with improvements in gross margins attributed to lower traffic acquisition costs (TAC) and slower wage growth [10]. - The company's operating profit margins benefit from healthy revenue growth and a favorable shift towards lower TAC advertising revenue [10]. Analyst Sentiment and Valuation - Analysts have a mixed outlook on Google's earnings, with a consensus indicating a more optimistic view due to the structural shift towards lower TAC search revenue and slowing wage growth [11]. - Google's 1-year forward P/E ratio is 18.0, which is a 13.1% discount compared to its 3-year median P/E of 20.8 [12]. - The stock is trading at a 43% discount relative to its peers, which is lower than its typical 33% discount over the past year [14][17]. Legal Challenges - Google is currently involved in a lawsuit regarding its advertising technology stack, with a ruling indicating that it has maintained a monopoly through bundling practices [21][23]. - The U.S. Department of Justice is pushing for Google to divest its Google Ad Manager, which could further weaken its competitive position in the digital advertising market [24]. Conclusion - While Google's valuation appears low and presents potential upside, the ongoing challenges in revenue growth and competitive pressures raise concerns about the sustainability of its profitability and market position [25].

Group 1 - The digital advertising market showed strong performance in the recent quarter, with major tech companies like Meta and Alphabet exceeding revenue and profit expectations despite economic concerns [1] - Amazon's advertising business reported a 19% year-over-year growth in Q1, outperforming Meta's 16% and Google's 9% [1] - Smaller social media and online advertising companies, including Reddit, Snap, and Pinterest, also reported better-than-expected sales figures in Q1 [1] Group 2 - Executives expressed concerns about the outlook for the year, noting that cross-border e-commerce exporters from Asia are cutting digital advertising budgets due to the end of a previous tax exemption policy [2] - Snap withdrew its Q2 earnings guidance, citing economic volatility that may reduce corporate advertising budgets [2] - Analysts warned that the recent strong earnings could represent the peak of performance, as many companies are lowering or withdrawing sales forecasts for 2025 [3] Group 3 - Retail and fast-moving consumer goods sectors, which account for about 50% of U.S. social advertising spending, have issued warnings about slowing sales, which could impact the entire social advertising market [3] - Smaller tech platforms may be more adversely affected by a slowdown in advertising spending compared to larger platforms, as advertisers tend to shift towards larger, stable platforms during economic uncertainty [3] - Even major platforms like Meta may struggle to replicate the high returns seen from previous advertising campaigns due to changing market conditions [3][4] Group 4 - The uncertainty in the market is primarily driven by trade policies and their spillover effects, with rising tariff levels expected by the end of the year [5]