本文首发于2025年03月 今天，我们重发一篇过往比较受欢迎的文章《》，希望对你有所启发。 观点 / 刘润 主笔 / 景九 责编 / 黄静 不过，去年第四季度，麦肯锡发布了一份报告: 《The next big arenas of competition》(下一个重大竞争：改变商业格局的行业领域)。 这份报告用200多页的篇幅，详细分析了未来最有可能改变全球商业格局的18个赛道，并预测2040年，这18个赛道将实现29万 —48万亿美元的收入，贡献18-34%的全球GDP增长。 那么，这些风口行业，都是什么？以及，为什么是他们？ 以下是这篇次条重发文章正文。 每年，我都会听到类似的声音。 哪里还有机会？时代变化太快，未来看不清，下一步，我到底该去哪？学些什么知识？ 是啊，回头看看过去20年，有太多的"风口"从我们面前溜走。2003年的软件，2010年的电商，2015年的移动互联网...似乎，每 个风口，都催生出了一批千亿市值的巨头，也带动了无数从业者财富自由。 未来的10年、20年，还会有这样的机会吗？ 坦白说，这个问题不太好回答。毕竟，未来这个东西，谁都不敢说自己能完全看清。 今天，我们一起来看看。 18个 ...

Core Insights - A new company, Kunming Xinlv Qiyuan Cultural Media Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 50,000 RMB [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Zhu Lin [1] - The company operates in various sectors including advertising production, digital advertising design and agency, personal internet live streaming services, and internet sales [1] Business Scope - The business scope includes general projects such as: - Advertising production and digital advertising [1] - Sales of personal hygiene products, daily necessities, disinfectants, and non-medical masks [1] - Retail of medical protective equipment and special medical purpose formula foods [1] - Supply chain management services and consulting services in various fields [1] - The company is also involved in tourism-related services, including travel agency services and project planning consultation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Meta's Q3 2025 performance shows mixed results, primarily impacted by a significant tax expense and increased capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, despite strong revenue growth in its core digital advertising business [1][4][26]. Financial Performance - Meta's Q3 revenue reached $51.2 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations by $1.8 billion, driven by rising average ad prices [6]. - Operating profit margin decreased from 43% in the same quarter last year to 40%, with costs rising 32% year-over-year, attributed to increased AI-related R&D spending [7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) was $1.05, significantly below market expectations and down 83% year-over-year, primarily due to a one-time tax expense of $15.9 billion [7][26]. Advertising Business - Digital advertising, which constitutes 98% of total revenue, grew by 26% year-over-year, benefiting from a shift in ad spending from traditional channels to digital platforms [8]. - Average ad prices increased by 10%, with key markets like the U.S. and Canada growing by 13% and Europe by 19%, marking the highest growth in nearly five quarters [8]. Capital Expenditures - Meta updated its FY 2025 capital expenditure outlook, raising the lower end by $4 billion to a range of $70-72 billion, with Q3 capital expenditures nearing $20 billion, more than double from the previous year [11]. - Most capital expenditures are directed towards AI infrastructure, including new data centers and advanced chip procurement [12][13]. Valuation Analysis - Prior to the earnings report, Meta's P/E ratio was over 32, but after the valuation adjustment, it stands at 27, which is close to the current valuation of the S&P 500 [16][21]. - Analysts predict EPS growth of 22.90 in 2025 (down 4% due to tax expenses), 29.75 in 2026 (up 30%), and 33.35 in 2027 (up 12%) [19]. Risk and Outlook - Despite the challenges, Meta's fundamentals remain intact, with advertising prices continuing to rise and increased user engagement driven by AI-enhanced content recommendations [26]. - The company acknowledges risks related to high capital expenditures and reliance on digital advertising, which could impact cash flow and profitability if not managed properly [24].

Market Overview - London spot gold opened lower and subsequently expanded its decline to over 1%, reaching a low of $4061.31 per ounce [1] - The Nikkei 225 index opened up 595.64 points, a rise of 1.21%, reaching 49895.29 points, and broke the 50,000-point mark for the first time, increasing over 1.8% [1] - The KOSPI index opened up 60.19 points, a rise of 1.53%, reaching 4001.78 points, with gains exceeding 2% [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market indices closed at record highs last Friday, with the Dow Jones up 2.2%, S&P 500 up 1.92%, and NASDAQ up 2.31% over the week [4] - This week is characterized as "Super Central Bank Week" and "Super Earnings Week," with major central banks including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank set to announce interest rate decisions [4][5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, despite resilient economic indicators and persistent core inflation [4][5] Earnings Reports - Over 170 companies are expected to report earnings this week, including the "Tech Seven" giants: Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, which collectively account for about a quarter of the S&P 500 index [5][6] - The earnings season has started strong, with over 25% of S&P 500 companies reporting, and approximately 85% exceeding Wall Street expectations, marking the best performance in four years [6] - The projected profit growth rate for the "Tech Seven" in Q3 is 14%, down from 27% in Q2, but still nearly double the expected 8% growth rate for S&P 500 companies [6]

Core Insights - The growth trajectories of Apple, Microsoft, and Google from 2010 to 2025 show a parallel increase in market value, suggesting a unified growth dynamic despite their different business models [2][3] - Balaji Srinivasan posits that the traditional economy is fading while the internet economy is emerging, marking a significant economic shift [6][10] Group 1: Decline of the Traditional Economy - The traditional economy is characterized by physical entities and linear growth, heavily reliant on capital expenditure and regulatory frameworks [11][12][13] - Key sectors like manufacturing and energy are experiencing stagnation, with U.S. manufacturing worker productivity growth at approximately 2% since 2018, compared to 7% in the tech sector [17][16] Group 2: Rise of the New Economy - The internet economy exhibits exponential growth potential and is driven by network effects, allowing companies like Google and Meta to dominate their markets [20][22] - AI enables small teams to create significant value, with the potential for "one-person companies" to reach valuations of $1 billion [25][26] - The cost of adding users in digital services is negligible, allowing for global scalability without physical constraints [27][28] Group 3: Magnificent Seven as New Productivity Leaders - The "Magnificent Seven" (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla) now account for about 34% of the S&P 500's market capitalization, up from 12% in 2015 [31] - In 2023, these companies achieved a collective return rate of 75.71%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 24.23% [32] - Their platforms are integral to modern business activities, positioning them as infrastructure builders in the new economy [37] Group 4: Societal and Market Implications - The transition from traditional to new economy is reshaping societal structures and investment landscapes, presenting both opportunities and risks [40][41] - The concentration of wealth in technology sectors raises concerns about inequality and job losses in traditional industries [42] - The concept of "network states" may emerge, where communities based on shared values operate with their own currencies and governance, potentially replacing traditional nation-states [44][45]

Group 1 - Jiangxi Xinxin Printing Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 1 million RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Ke Yanhong [1] - The business scope includes various printing services, such as publication printing, packaging printing, and binding services [1] Group 2 - The company is also involved in digital advertising production, advertising design, and agency services [1] - It engages in import and export activities, as well as technology services including development, consulting, and transfer [1] - Additional activities include domestic trade agency, toy manufacturing and sales, and software development [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Liemeng Technology (02405) reported a significant decline in its mid-term performance for 2025, with a revenue of $3.25 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 55.89% [1] - The company experienced a post-tax loss of $3.758 million, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [1] - The loss per share was reported at $0.47 [1] Group 2 - The revenue decline is primarily attributed to global economic fluctuations and geopolitical uncertainties, which have led to a substantial reduction in digital advertising budgets from the company's clients [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese political landscape is facing significant turmoil, particularly with the upcoming Senate elections, which could lead to a loss of majority for the ruling coalition, impacting market stability and government policies [2][5][9]. Group 1: Japanese Political Situation - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is projected to secure fewer than 50 seats in the Senate elections, potentially losing its majority [2][6][7]. - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government may resign if the coalition fails to maintain a majority, which could lead to a political deadlock and hinder legislative progress [9][11]. - The current approval rating for Ishiba's cabinet has dropped to 20.8%, below the critical threshold of 30%, indicating a precarious political situation [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the elections has led to a significant sell-off in the Japanese bond market, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching record levels [7][8]. - Analysts predict that if Ishiba resigns, the Japanese yen could breach the 149.7 mark against the dollar, reflecting market concerns [8]. - A potential victory for opposition parties could lead to significant policy changes, including tax reductions, which may further destabilize the financial markets [11][12]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to address the market regarding the Fed's independence, which could influence the dollar's performance [3][15]. - Recent U.S. inflation data indicates a rise in core prices, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [17]. - The European Central Bank is also anticipated to maintain its current interest rates amidst ongoing trade tensions, which could affect the euro [19][20]. Group 4: Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings season will see over 100 S&P 500 companies reporting, with Google and Tesla being key focus points [21]. - Google's second-quarter revenue is expected to be $93.9 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by its dominance in digital advertising [22]. - Tesla's anticipated revenue of $22.83 billion represents a 10.46% decline year-over-year, with significant attention on its future guidance and developments in autonomous driving [23].

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Events - The People's Bank of China announced the July Loan Prime Rates (LPR) with the five-year rate at 3.5% and the one-year rate at 3% [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain the policy rate at 2% during the upcoming meeting on July 24, following eight rate cuts [8] - The U.S. reported a significant increase in durable goods orders for June, with a preliminary month-on-month growth of 16.4%, the largest since July 2014, driven by a 230% increase in aircraft orders [9] Group 2: Company Earnings Reports - Google (Alphabet) is set to release its Q2 earnings on July 23, with expected revenue of $93.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and an EPS of $2.17, up 15% [25] - Tesla will also report its Q2 earnings on July 23, with anticipated revenue of $22.83 billion, a decrease of 10.46% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of $1.533 billion, down 15.38% [26] - Other companies such as SAP, Lockheed Martin, Coca-Cola, and General Motors are also scheduled to announce their Q2 earnings [27] Group 3: Political Events and Implications - The results of Japan's 27th House of Councillors election are expected to impact the political landscape, with the ruling coalition needing to secure at least 50 seats to maintain a majority [12][13] - The election comes amid declining support for Prime Minister Kishida's cabinet, which could lead to significant political instability if the ruling coalition loses its majority [14][15] Group 4: Upcoming Conferences and Expositions - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference will take place from July 26 to 28, showcasing over 3,000 cutting-edge exhibits, including AI models and robots [18][19] - The first Shanghai International Low Altitude Economy Expo is scheduled for July 23 to 26, featuring various aviation-related events [20] - The 24th China Internet Conference will be held from July 23 to 25, focusing on AI, 5G-A/6G, and low-altitude economy [22]

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant transformation of China's advertising industry over the past decade, highlighting the dual growth in scale and quality under the new Advertising Law [2] - It emphasizes the shift towards a "smart" advertising ecosystem driven by advanced technologies, marking a transition from traditional advertising methods to data-driven, automated systems [3][4] Group 1: Industry Evolution - The advertising industry has transitioned from basic digitalization to deep "smart integration," with mobile internet proliferation leading to a shift from display logic to personalized interaction [4] - The rise of new business models such as digital advertising, social advertising, video advertising, and content e-commerce has become the main engine for industry growth [5] - Major platform companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent have embedded advertising deeply within their technological frameworks, creating a closed-loop ecosystem that enhances precision and real-time capabilities [5] Group 2: Technological Impact - The integration of big data, cloud computing, and algorithmic models has upgraded programmatic buying, user profiling, and performance optimization [4] - The emergence of AIGC, semantic recognition, and emotional perception technologies has led to a new phase of advertising characterized by automation, customization, and semantic resonance [4] - Advertising is evolving into a "smart communication system" that combines content generation, user perception, and intelligent decision-making, becoming a key node in the smart society [4] Group 3: Talent and Skills - The structure of advertising professionals is evolving, with a demand for talent that possesses a combination of data analysis, programming, and algorithmic skills, reflecting the new standards in the smart advertising industry [7] Group 4: Social Role of Advertising - Advertising's role has expanded from a commercial tool to a mechanism for cultural construction, social mobilization, and even national governance, particularly in digital public welfare communication [8] - The article highlights the importance of advertising in guiding social behavior and reshaping public discourse, positioning it as a critical support mechanism for cultural security and social governance [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of advertising will see deeper integration into various sectors such as education, healthcare, and emergency response, becoming a foundational infrastructure for societal operations [8] - The article calls for a shift from "technology-driven" to "responsibility-driven" governance in the advertising ecosystem, emphasizing the need for transparent algorithms, data boundaries, and ethical frameworks [12]