未来两周将成为市场博弈的关键窗口期。高频替代数据、机构研判、官员公开讲话乃至市场仓位变化，都将成为左右预期的核心线索。这种缺乏硬数据支 撑的博弈，注定让市场天平反复摇摆，波动率持续放大。对投资者而言，需清醒认识到当前决策环境的特殊性：美联储既面临劳动力市场疲软的宽松压 力，又缺乏通胀受控的明确证据，政策制定陷入"两难困境"。 这场数据真空下的降息迷局，本质是全球金融市场对不确定性的集体焦虑。随着FOMC会议临近，市场对每一条碎片化信息的敏感度都将达到峰值。投资 者需摒弃单边押注思维，聚焦核心逻辑——就业数据的边际变化与官员表态的一致性，在震荡中把握风险对冲机会，方能穿越这场罕见的政策决策迷雾。 数据缺失是当前市场混乱的核心症结。12月9-10日FOMC议息会议前，美联储能依赖的官方数据仅有9月和11月非农就业数据，关键的CPI通胀读数几乎完 全缺位。摩根士丹利参照2013年政府停摆经验，预判10月通胀与消费者支出数据无法及时公布；瑞银更是警告，作为价格指数计算基础的10月CPI数据缺 失，可能导致后续数月通胀数据均存在偏差，彻底丧失参考价值。美国白宫新闻秘书已明确警示，10月部分核心经济数据或永久无法发布，迫 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has led to the suspension of key economic data releases, including the non-farm payroll report, causing a quiet trading environment [2][3] - Analysts express concerns about the potential impact of a prolonged data drought on trading strategies, particularly in commodities [3] - Despite the government shutdown, the S&P 500 index has shown resilience, with a year-to-date increase of 14% and multiple record highs [3][4] Group 2 - Analysts predict an 8.8% year-over-year growth in S&P 500 companies' earnings for Q3, surpassing earlier forecasts [4] - The market is entering a traditionally strong fourth quarter, with historical data indicating an average increase of 2.9% for the S&P 500 during this period [4] - Market fundamentals remain supported by seasonal trends, potential interest rate cuts, and strong market momentum, leading to continued stock accumulation strategies [4]